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CzechPunter

2017 Off-Season

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Alright, so the season has now officially ended...and I have to say that I'm really glad it's over. 2017 has been, without a shadow of a doubt, the worst year I've ever had, both personally and betting-wise. It somehow feels that everything that could go wrong did. The very first weeks of the year were disastrous, but I managed to recover after the Australian Open and even get to a very good plus, but it went downhill from then on and I never got on a solid upswing again. Darcis beating Zverev in the Davis Cup was the high point of the year, but I also have memories of Thiem-Querrey in Rome. I had Querrey there for really nice odds, he should've won, but lost it in a final set TB. At that point, I had a feeling that the season will go to...you know where...and it did. The final ROI for the year is 92.86%, which is just absolute crap and the worst result I've ever had year-wise.

As far as the tour is concerned, the dual comeback of Nadal and Federer was definitely the highlight, while the other big guns struggled and most even gave up early, which really makes one pumped up for 2018, the year in which anything can happen. Djokovic is apparently ready to go, with Agassi and Stepanek now in his coaching box. Murray, Wawrinka, Nishikori, Raonic, and Berdych are all in doubt in terms of fitness, so we'll see. Dimitrov is now the big wildcard I reckon, the win at the Finals must've been a big boost confidence-wise. So yeah, it's really hard to predict what's going to happen. Nadal should win the French Open if he's healthy, but that's about the only prediction that I'm willing to make. The biggest question mark is Thiem, while Chung could be the one to shock us all imo.

The WTA continues to be a mess, with big performances being followed by losing streaks. Just look at Sloane Stephens and you'll see what I mean - instead of building on her big US Open win, she just gave up on the season altogether, alongside Madison Keys, the other US Open finalist. Hilarious, especially since there's a possibility that we are now going to see Serena Williams back in Melbourne. I hope she's not going to win that event, for the good of the sport, but it would obviously be a story loved by the media.

I will certainly be looking at some of the season-long markets again, as it seems that I've always been rather successful with them - and I do see some "lesser" players that could really shoot up the rankings in 2018, both in the ATP and the WTA. In any case, those markets aren't going to appear before mid-December, so there is still a lot of time for thinking things through.

For now, I'd like to wish all members of the forum Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and good luck. Thanks for staying with me, liking my posts, and all that jazz - I really appreciate it and it does mean a lot to me, so let's hope that we're all going to meet again for 2018!

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@DrO Who knows? :lol The final confirmation will be when we see him in his box I reckon, my best guess is that there are still some behind-the-scenes negotiations that could go either way. The idea seems obvious if he adds both Agassi and Stepanek, he just wants to be more aggressive, which would obviously be nice to see. He's 4.50 to win AO, wouldn't touch that now. But I don't understand why he's the same price as Murray, I would have Murray as a bigger underdog.

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Australian open wild card play-off

Zhizhen Zhang to beat Ze Zhang at 2.62 with bet365

Zhizhen has had a good year and he may build on a good momentum from reaching the Shenzhen quarterfinals. A result like a quarterfinal in an ATP tournament is something Ze Zhang also has accomplished once in Beijing 2012 where he acctually beat Richard Gasquet before crashing out in straight sets to Florian Mayer. Otherwise Ze has mostly been bruised and battered in ATP tournaments apart from his 5 wins that he's got under his belt. Never done mutch of notice and winning only one challenger tournament and that was this season. Unfortunately he was unable to build on his challenger winning run for the rest of the season and he's 27 years old and ranked 194 now. Zhizhen who is 21 already has 3 ATP victories and is ranked 338 with career high 335 achieved just recently in november. Zhizhen seems like the bigger talent of the two so I'm going with the younger and more promising player here.

Edited by four-leaf

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Brazil F4 Futures

Christian Lindell to beat Orlando Luz at 1.80 with bet365

2-0 to Christian head2head v Orlando and he's won both meetings in straight sets without mutch fuss. They last faced in Argentina early this season on hardcourt. Orlando 19 years old and ranked 587 with career high 449 in 2015 and Christian ranked 326 with career high 177 in 2015. Christian is second seed and has beaten two qualifiers to get to the quarters while Orlando is seventh seed and has beaten two non qualifiers without ranking at all to get to the quarters. Formwise Orlando lost last week in Brazil F3 Futures in first round against unknown russian Petr Arkhipov with no ranking and career high 1152. Christian seems to have a bit to high price on him this time. 1.80 is quite good so I got to try it. And btw in this F4 Futures tournament i think I belive in Joao Souza v Christian Lindell in the final. Most logical final since both are superior to all others in this tournament.

 

Edit: Orlando beat Alexandre Tsuchiya who is ranked 1143 so apologiez for wrong info since that player does have a ranking but the other one he beat doesn't.

Edited by four-leaf
Wrong info

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Australian open wild card play-off

Soonwoo Kwon to beat (-1.5 sets) Hiroki Moriya at 2.10 with bet365

Soonwoo got a walkover against Vishnu Vardhan and he might have needed some rest for this match. Anyway he will most likely show his talent here and take out Hiroki in straight sets. Not mutch to add apart from the fact that Hiroki is in decline and has been for some time and Soonwoo is the future of southkorean tennis.

Zhizhen Zhang to beat Zhe Li at 2.00 with bet365

Zhizhen got through by a walkover just like Soonwoo and he should be too strong for Zhe without mutch fuss. I fully expect a final between Zhizhen and Soonwoo.

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ITF Qatar F4

Markus Eriksson to beat Aslan Karatsev at 2.50 with bet365

No reason to have Markus as such an underdog here. He's been doing quite well this season while Aslan has been nowhere to be seen. In fact he's dropped like a stone in the rankings and played plain awful all season with one exception, he reached the Quimper challenger quarterfinal losing 7-6 7-6 to Quentin Halys. Well done with that but otherwise he's been crap. Markus is even higher ranked now at 314 v Aslans ranking 750. In Markus I think we have a potential winner here.

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Some for tomorrow...

ITF ladies Nules, Spain

Tessah Andrianjafitrimo to beat Marta Paigina at 2.50 with bet365

Almost the same ranking, one year apart but I think Tessah is the more talented of the two and I'm gonna put some stake on her to win this as she should come out on top. Marta beat Amandine Hesse to get to second round in three sets and that was very good but I think that's where it all ends. Anyway there's no reason to have Tessah as a 2.50 underdog. She acctually won her first round by 6-0 6-3 beating a qualifier so she must be playing well.

Cindy Burger to beat Giulia Gatto-Monticone at 2.20 with bet365

Also here we have a similar match where I think Cindy is the more talented of the two. Giulia is 30 years old and has never been top 200 but Cindy was 134 last year and now she's 300+ so I guess it's the ranking that set the odds on this one. Cindy won her first round match over a wild card winning 6-2 6-3 and Giulia won her first round match in 3 sets over the no.7 seed. Anyway I think Cindy is a little bit overpriced here.

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And another underdog from Nules...

Katarzyna Piter to beat Ulrikke Eikeri at 3.25 with bet365

Katarzyna won in first round 7-6 6-0 while Ulrikke won in 3 sets. The more experienced player is Katarzyna and I think that might take her to another win. Only the difference of 90+ places in ranking seems to have set the odds on Ulrikke as such a big favourite. With a small stake it's worth trying the underdog at this price.

Edited by four-leaf

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19 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Some for tomorrow...

ITF ladies Nules, Spain

Tessah Andrianjafitrimo to beat Marta Paigina at 2.50 with bet365

Almost the same ranking, one year apart but I think Tessah is the more talented of the two and I'm gonna put some stake on her to win this as she should come out on top. Marta beat Amandine Hesse to get to second round in three sets and that was very good but I think that's where it all ends. Anyway there's no reason to have Tessah as a 2.50 underdog. She acctually won her first round by 6-0 6-3 beating a qualifier so she must be playing well.

Cindy Burger to beat Giulia Gatto-Monticone at 2.20 with bet365

Also here we have a similar match where I think Cindy is the more talented of the two. Giulia is 30 years old and has never been top 200 but Cindy was 134 last year and now she's 300+ so I guess it's the ranking that set the odds on this one. Cindy won her first round match over a wild card winning 6-2 6-3 and Giulia won her first round match in 3 sets over the no.7 seed. Anyway I think Cindy is a little bit overpriced here.

Good win for Tessah Fitrimo 7-6 6-1

And a win by Cindy Burger 2 sets to 1

19 hours ago, four-leaf said:

And another underdog from Nules...

Katarzyna Piter to beat Ulrikke Eikeri at 3.25 with bet365

Katarzyna won in first round 7-6 6-0 while Ulrikke won in 3 sets. The more experienced player is Katarzyna and I think that might take her to another win. Only the difference of 90+ places in ranking seems to have set the odds on Ulrikke as such a big favourite. With a small stake it's worth trying the underdog at this price.

Big loss for Katarzyna but this was the one I hade lower expectations on as it was only a small stake here.

 

My off season bets are coming in thick and fast so let's keep it going that way.

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Alright, first pre-season bet.

Lucas Pouille to beat Tomas Berdych at 2.00 with Unibet

Berdych had one good run in 2017, in the Wimbledon. Apart from that, his career has been going downhill - and I'm not sure what's going to change in 2018, since he doesn't seem to have the same spark as many of the other veterans. Pouille started 2017 poorly due to injury issues, but he's recovered by the end of the year, winning in Vienna and then helping France win the Davis Cup. I'd have him as the favourite in this match-up.

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Corentin Moutet - Singles ranking as of 26 November 2018 - Under 150.5 at 1.87 with Unibet

Moutet nearly broke this milestone in 2017 despite not playing in any ATP-level tournaments, so I think that he'll break it now that he's finished the season on a high. If he's at least half-successful making the switch, he'll break it without any issues I'd say, and the good news is that he should get some support from the French federation as well. He's already received a WC to the Australian Open and there should be more coming up throughout the year, so that should ease the pressure somewhat.

Naomi Osaka - Singles ranking as of 5 November 2018 - Under 47.5 at 1.88 with Unibet

Osaka had an awful season in 2017, but 2018 should be the time for a really good comeback I'd say. She's now working with Sascha Baijin, a guy that's helped many top players over the last few years, and she's working hard by the looks of things already, so I have big expectations for her in 2018. If she stays injury-free, she could break her career-best of 40.

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Cedrik-Marcel Stebe - Singles ranking as of 26 November 2018 - Under 90.5 at 1.87 with Unibet

Cedrik-Marcel is a tricky class player who plays a lot on small margins which makes him so tricky to beat and he's good at that tricky gameplay. On his best days he can challenge top 10 opponents and those best days he showed a lot during 2017 on the challenger tour so I think he will just continue rising the same way as he did in 2017. He could easily be top 50 by the end of the season. Staying around 60-70 in ranking shouldn't be to hard for him as he doesn't defend any ATP points at all almost. He did good results on the challenger tour. Now with his experience he should be able to translate his challenger success to the ATP tour. If injuries doesn't stop him he'll be top 90 or better as of 26 November 2018.

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ITF ladies Nules, Spain

Tessah Andrianjafitrimo to beat Silvia Soler-Espinosa at 2.20 with bet365

Just a small bet on Tessah for tomorrow. She's 19 and got the talent to break top 200 next season and so far she's won all her matches in Nules in straight sets, while Silvia has been on the downward spiral all of 2017 reaching only one semifinal in Valencia on the ITF tour losing to Irina Bara in her last tournament. As there is a risk that it might be just a matter of time before Silvia reaches her first ITF final in a long time I only place a small bet on Tessah.

ITF Qatar F4

Markus Eriksson to beat Roberto Ortega-Olmedo at 2.25 with bet365

Final in this futures tournament between the spanish player Roberto and swede Markus and the only reason I think this might be a good bet is that it is a 50/50 final and the price should not be 2.25 on the swede, more close to 1.83 so therefore I think it's worth it. Fact: Markus no.3 seed ranked 314 career high 314 (2017) and Roberto no.2 seed ranked 311 career high 257 (2014). The mentioned fact tells me that Markus has been on the rise this season and he should be confident of pulling off another win here.

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16 hours ago, four-leaf said:

ITF ladies Nules, Spain

Tessah Andrianjafitrimo to beat Silvia Soler-Espinosa at 2.20 with bet365

Just a small bet on Tessah for tomorrow. She's 19 and got the talent to break top 200 next season and so far she's won all her matches in Nules in straight sets, while Silvia has been on the downward spiral all of 2017 reaching only one semifinal in Valencia on the ITF tour losing to Irina Bara in her last tournament. As there is a risk that it might be just a matter of time before Silvia reaches her first ITF final in a long time I only place a small bet on Tessah.

ITF Qatar F4

Markus Eriksson to beat Roberto Ortega-Olmedo at 2.25 with bet365

Final in this futures tournament between the spanish player Roberto and swede Markus and the only reason I think this might be a good bet is that it is a 50/50 final and the price should not be 2.25 on the swede, more close to 1.83 so therefore I think it's worth it. Fact: Markus no.3 seed ranked 314 career high 314 (2017) and Roberto no.2 seed ranked 311 career high 257 (2014). The mentioned fact tells me that Markus has been on the rise this season and he should be confident of pulling off another win here.

To bad Markus Eriksson lost since I had a higher stake on him and lower on Tessah Fitrimo but still ok for the week.

Maybe more to come next week since I don't see any value on Tessah in the Nules final because odds on her will be crap.

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Belinda Bencic - Singles ranking as of 5 November 2018 - Under 28.5 at 1.88 with Unibet

If she stays at least somewhat healthy, Bencic should be top 20 at the end of the season imo. She's hungry, she's talented, and she's already gaining ranking points as we speak, so the only thing that can possibly stop her is another lengthy injury break. The WTA isn't as competitive as the ATP and you don't really even need to win any big events to finish at the top, so there's that. Bencic has enough to get at least one good GS run - and that could be enough for this bet to almost come in.

Mikael Ymer - Singles ranking as of 26 November 2018 - Under 270.5 at 1.87 with Unibet

Betting on youngsters can be quite risky for obvious reasons, but this line is fairly high and I think that Ymer is bound to get a breakthrough sooner rather than later. Everyone knows Elias Ymer, but I think that Mikael might actually be even more talented, plus he has the drive in wanting to be better than his brother. I'd have the line at 200 honestly, even though he can finish out of the top 500 if he's unlucky enough not to qualify for anything.

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