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2017 Off-Season

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Unibet have already put the ATP Sydney winner odds up. Philipp Kohlschreiber is my call to win this tournament but I'm only putting up my thoughts for the season bets so no Sydney bets will be placed until january.

My reason to belive in Philipp is the other potentially dangerous participants being Damir Dzumhur, Fabio Fognini, Kei Nishikori, Feli Lopez, Adrian Mannarino, Gilles Muller, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Nando Verdasco, Benoit Paire, Albert Ramos-Viñolas.

Kei will likely be to rusty to get back from injury and win the first tournament after injury. Nando is always a question mark nowadays and I can't put him as winner in a final. Adrian always failed so far if he reached a final. Fabio gets beaten by Philipp every day of the week on any surface (had him as straight sets winner last time they met on clay when Philipp went on to win Kitzbühel) and Fabio always start the seasons slow like a snail. Gilles form hasn't been good enough since he reached Wimby quarters. Alexandr never in my life, the guy is such a mentally unstable player. Benoit also never in my life with his mentality. Albert had no form late 2017 and can't be put ahead of Philipp on hard. Damir will likely have a tougher season ahead of him with protecting his ranking after his recent two titles and I don't think he beats Philipp if they go head to head (they have met once in Sofia 2016 and Philipp won 2-1). Feli can go and win another title in Sydney but he is more likely to lose before the final if he plays like he's done last 6 months and grass is by far his best surface.

Edit: It will be Keis second tournament back from injury since he will compete in Brisbane the week before. And there are other names in the Sydney field that I left out which Philipp can face. It's Diego Schwartzman who Philipp met once in Vienna 2017 and he won in straight sets. Leo Mayer who is 3-0 v Philipp winning all three times on clay in straight sets so I hope he wont face him but Leos form wasn't so good after Hamburg so I'm not to worried about him unless they face early in Sydney. Then there's Jan-Lennard Struff who Philipp is up 3-1 against so he should take him out again if necessary. More possible threats is Jared Donaldson and Mischa Zverev. Philipp has lost his only match against Mischa in Rotterdam 2008 and Jared he hasn't met. Last possible threat would be Paolo Lorenzi who is 0-3 v Philipp without taking a set.

Edited by four-leaf

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Ajla Tomljanovic - Singles ranking as of 5 November 2018 - Under 83.5 at 1.88 with Unibet

If Ajla stays healthy she should make it back to top 100 again and finish somewhere around top 80. She's already been year end top 80 for three straight years before her injury. She withdrew after losing first set last saturday in the ITF Dubai final but let's hope it's only some minor issue. She's ranked 118 now and that she should improve on with another injury free season with not many WTA points to defend as she mostly played ITF tournaments in 2017. She's got the talent and she's proud of how far she's come with her game mentally.

Ajla about her groin injury in Dubai: http://sport360.com/video/tennis/258930/ajla-tomljanovic-gives-classy-speech-after-retiring-from-habtoor-final-against-belinda-bencic-in-dubai

Late in the video she says "I think I've put up a pretty good base for next year" and about that I got to agree with her.

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Best Asian Singles Ranking (WTA Season 2018) as of 5 november 2018 with Unibet

Only the listed players are taken into consideration

Shuai Zhang 3.25 (ranked 35)

Shuai Peng 3.50 (ranked 27)

Naomi Osaka 4.75 (ranked 68)

Qiang Wang 8.00 (ranked 45)

Yulia Putintseva 9.00 (ranked 50)

Zarina Diyas 15.00 (ranked 66)

I think Naomi can be the top ranked player of these 6. Not mutch separates Shuai and Shuai atm and Naomi is far behind but Czech has already pointed out that Naomi could be top 50 at least when the season ends. I go even further and say: she could be top 25.

Edited by four-leaf

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ITF Hong Kong F4

Yan Bai to beat Fajing Sun at 1.83 with bet365

They've met once in 2015 in China F2 Futures on clay where Yan won 6-2 6-2. Ranking wise they are quite even with both being top 500 but Yan is the more experienced player and could therefore win again. Going for the older player feels right here.

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ITF Turkey F48

Oleg Khotkov to beat Olexiy Kolisnyk at 2.50 with bet365

No reason to have Oleg as the underdog here except the ranking difference of 162 places. I would have Oleg at max 2.10. Oleg leads the head-to-head 3-1 and he's the older player. It took 4 tries before Olexiy could beat Oleg so it seems as these two ukrainean players are more even then the odds suggest.

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13 hours ago, four-leaf said:

ITF Hong Kong F4

Yan Bai to beat Fajing Sun at 1.83 with bet365

They've met once in 2015 in China F2 Futures on clay where Yan won 6-2 6-2. Ranking wise they are quite even with both being top 500 but Yan is the more experienced player and could therefore win again. Going for the older player feels right here.

Yan Bai won 6-3 6-2 :D

13 hours ago, four-leaf said:

ITF Qatar F6

Fred Simonsson to beat Markus Eriksson at 3.00 with bet365

It's an all swedish encounter and Fred has a 2-1 head-to-head lead winning twice in straight sets. Fred is ranked 682 while Markus 311. I got to try a small stake on Fred to win again.

Fred Simonsson won 6-4 1-6 6-3 :D

12 hours ago, four-leaf said:

ITF Turkey F48

Oleg Khotkov to beat Olexiy Kolisnyk at 2.50 with bet365

No reason to have Oleg as the underdog here except the ranking difference of 162 places. I would have Oleg at max 2.10. Oleg leads the head-to-head 3-1 and he's the older player. It took 4 tries before Olexiy could beat Oleg so it seems as these two ukrainean players are more even then the odds suggest.

Olexiy Kolisnyk won 6-3 6-2 :\

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ITF Hong Kong F4

Ti Chen to beat Shintaro Imai at 2.25 with bet365

Now I don't understand what this is all about making Shintaro favourite with no reason at all. He's younger at 24 years old but that's it. Ti is ten years older and he's been top 200 and his experience will probably count for a lot here so I have troubles seeing the japanese winning this.

Edited by four-leaf

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17 hours ago, four-leaf said:

ITF Hong Kong F4

Ti Chen to beat Shintaro Imai at 2.25 with bet365

Now I don't understand what this is all about making Shintaro favourite with no reason at all. He's younger at 24 years old but that's it. Ti is ten years older and he's been top 200 and his experience will probably count for a lot here so I have troubles seeing the japanese winning this.

Ti Chen lost 6-3 6-2, next bet...

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Xin Gao to beat Kim Cheong-Eui at 3.25 with bet365

The korean Kim seems to be on a roll winning all his three matches in straight sets with two bagels and dropping only 9 games in the process but I won't let that fool me so I pick the chinese player Xin to win this. He beat Kim earlier in 2017 in Chengdu challenger in straight sets so he can do it again.

 

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11 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Xin Gao to beat Kim Cheong-Eui at 3.25 with bet365

The korean Kim seems to be on a roll winning all his three matches in straight sets with two bagels and dropping only 9 games in the process but I won't let that fool me so I pick the chinese player Xin to win this. He beat Kim earlier in 2017 in Chengdu challenger in straight sets so he can do it again.

 

Xin Gao retired :eyes luckily after losing first set 6-2 and trailing 2-0 in second.

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Yibing Wu - Singles ranking as of 26 November 2018 - Under 200.5 at 1.87 with Unibet

I'll probably have a couple more until the season starts, starting with Yibing Wu, the man who should be the future of Chinese tennis. He's incredibly talented, he's got the support of the strong Chinese federation, and he'll have plenty of Challengers to play in at the very least, so I can see him breaking this barrier in 2018. He finished 2017 just outside the top 300 despite playing for only a couple of months, so there's that.

Donna Vekic - Singles ranking as of 5 November 2018 - Under 61.5 at 1.88 with Unibet

Vekic is talented, there can be no doubts about that - the only question is whether she's going to focus on tennis or on Wawrinka/other things. To me, it seems that it might be the former, as she's hired Torben Beltz in the off-season. Beltz was the guy that helped Kerber rise to fame and I doubt that he would want to spend his time with someone unambitious. And yeah, getting under the 61.5 line could be a question of just one or two big tournaments (Vekic is 54 currently).

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Simona Halep to win a Grand Slam in 2018 at 4.50 with Paddy Power

Probably the most outrageous outright I'm going to take, but I have a feeling that she could finally break the streak of bad GS luck. She didn't self-destruct after becoming the world's number one, she's just played two good exhibition matches against very strong players in Thailand, and she's competitive on all surfaces. It'd be a shame to see her end as Radwanska/Wozniacki.

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Ok, final two.

Dominic Thiem to beat Stanislas Wawrinka at 1.70 with Unibet

Thiem has already posted his schedule and he's supposed to play a billion events once again, so I reckon that he should finish above Wawrinka, who's likely to tone things down, especially since he's probably not fully fit yet. He's got the ability to win a GS out of nowhere, but I don't see that happening in 2018.

Caroline Garcia to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 2.00 with Ladbrokes

I'd have the odds the other way around here, as I wouldn't be shocked to see Ostapenko having a let-down season after the massive 2017. Garcia, on the other hand, could make a really serious breakthrough after steadily improving throughout the previous season - and she also has the consistency factor on her side.

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Top Ranked Player (WTA season 2018) as of 5 november 2018 with Unibet
Only the listed players are taken into consideration

Barty, Ashleigh 2.88
Radwanska, Agnieszka 3.00
Cibulkova, Dominika 3.75
Stephens, Sloane 6.00

Considering that Sloane beats Ashleigh any day of the week as she did in US open last season makes me think 
she could be able to be higher ranked when season ends despite the fact that she defends a grand slam title. The reason for her bigger price is mostly because she defends a lot of points before US open and the 2000 points from her US open title. Other then that she has a lot of points to gain everywhere. Aga and Dominika I won't even take into consideration in this bet since they are both sliding down and I don't expect anything big from either of them in 2018 and their odds is not exactly attractive either. Got to try Sloane here. Ashleigh defends points here and there but none in Wimbledon since she went out in first round last season. The player with the best grand slam result will probably finish highest of these four and at 6.00 Sloane is worth a try. Crossing my fingers for Sloane not to start the new season in such bad form that she had at the end of last season.

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