harry_rag Posted July 19, 2018 Author Share Posted July 19, 2018 Wigan v St Helens: Buy St Helens hotshots for 2 points at 50 with SPIN (Lomax,Percival,Grace,Barba) 3 points higher elsewhere and I'd stick another 3 points on top of that! In my view, these 4 are worth at least the 50 I'm paying even if I take a pessimistic view. See top of page for last week's profitable bet on St Helens hotshots. Lomax in for Makinson this time and he scored a brace last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 Done for by the absence of Barba and Percival. Just the 16 points for their absence so a loss of 34 x stake. 2991.25 points risked and 2867 returned, -124.25 points with an ROI of -4.15% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 20, 2018 Author Share Posted July 20, 2018 Ukraine/England U19s: Buy bookings for 1.5 points at 40 with SPIN. Not as strong a bet as the buy at 34 when Ukraine played France on Tuesday (see above) but still an appealing proposition at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 Italy/Norway U19s: Buy Norway corners squared for 2 points at 25 with SX 5 to break even and 6 for profit seems reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 Only one yellow card and 4 Norway corners so losses of 30 and 9 x stake on the last couple of bets. 3101.25 points risked and 2914 returned, -187.25 points with an ROI of -6.04% 36 winners from 109 bets (33.03%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 27, 2018 Author Share Posted July 27, 2018 Salford v Leeds: Buy Salford hotshots for 1.5 points at 41 with SPIN (Bibby, Sa'u, Olpherts, Lui) 10 points higher elsewhere, hard for me to make a case for them being worth any less than 44 however pessimistic a view I take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 31, 2018 Author Share Posted July 31, 2018 7 tries for Salford but only 1 from the hotshots so a loss of 16 x stake. 3162.75 points risked and 2951.5 returned, -211.25 points with an ROI of -6.68% 36 winners from 110 bets (32.73%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 Thought about calling time on this thread but decided to press on with some parameters set. Aim: Get the running total back in the black. Duration: 200 bets maximum (so 90 remaining) Bank: 500 points (currently stands at 288.75) Will consider again if I recoup the current deficit but will end the thread once either of the other 2 benchmarks are reached. Bet 111: Wakefield v St Helens: Buy St Helens shirts for 2 points at 26 with SX As high as 32 elsewhere so someone's got it at least slightly wrong. For my money I think SX have got it too low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 17, 2018 Author Share Posted August 17, 2018 On 8/16/2018 at 1:29 PM, harry_rag said: Bet 111: Wakefield v St Helens: Buy St Helens shirts for 2 points at 26 with SX That should have said Wakefield shirts, not St Helens. (The latter were much higher to buy but would have been a better bet.) The correct bet was a winner but they don't come any thinner! Wakefield shirts made up at 27 for a profit of 2x stake. 3214.75 points risked and 3005.5 returned, -209.25 points with an ROI of -6.51% 37 winners from 111 bets (33.33%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 18, 2018 Author Share Posted August 18, 2018 Salford v Widnes: Buy Salford hotshots for 1.5 points at 55 with SPIN (Sa'u, Evalds, Olpherts, Bibby) 60 to buy elsewhere which is closer to my take on the "true" price. Anything can happen but a nilling would be a surprise, 2 tries feels like a "par" score and there's enough prospect of 3 or 4 for me to be happy with a buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 18, 2018 Author Share Posted August 18, 2018 3 tries for the hotshots and 8 points for a non runner so the make up was 83 for a profit of 28x stake. 3297.25 points risked and 3130 returned, -167.25 points with an ROI of -5.07% 38 winners from 112 bets (33.93%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 19, 2018 Author Share Posted August 19, 2018 R Madrid/Getafe: Buy hotshots for 1.5 points at 50 with SPIN (Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema, Marco Asensio & Sergio Ramos) Unusually, SPIN go with 4 players all from 1 team. I rate these players 5 points higher so a 10 point perceived edge. 58 to but as RM hotshots with SX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 20, 2018 Author Share Posted August 20, 2018 Just a goal for Bale so a loss of 25x stake. 3372.25 points risked and 3167.5 returned, -204.75 points with an ROI of -6.07% 38 winners from 113 bets (33.63%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 Swansea/Leeds: Buy hotshots for 1.5 points at 29 with SPIN (McBurnie, McKay, Roofe and Saiz) Looks a little low and may be worth pressing any apparent advantage found in Leeds games at the moment. Nilling possible but enough chance of at least a single goal here to buy at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2018 Author Share Posted August 21, 2018 3 hotshots goals for a profit of 46x stake. 3415.75 points risked and 3280 returned, -135.75 points with an ROI of -3.97% 39 winners from 114 bets (34.21%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 24, 2018 Author Share Posted August 24, 2018 Middlesbrough v West Brom: Buy hotshots at 1.5 points for 31 with SPIN (Assombalonga, Braithwaite, Rodriguez and Gayle) Worth at least 2 points more for me which is a modest rather that "must bet" edge but the Boro pair have scored at least one between them in all 4 games so far and Rodriguez (4) and Gayle (1) have matched their total of 5. Be disappointed to be nilled on this one (though fully prepared for the possibility). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 26, 2018 Author Share Posted August 26, 2018 Drew a blank so a loss of 31x stake. 3462.25 points risked and 3280 returned, -184.25 points with an ROI of -5.32% 39 winners from 115 bets (33.91%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 27, 2018 Author Share Posted August 27, 2018 AFC Fylde/Harrogate: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 36 with SPIN (Rowe, Cardle, Knowles and Leesley) Looks light however I look at it. Good prospect of goals here and 2 fairly in form front men in Rowe and Knowles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 1, 2018 Author Share Posted September 1, 2018 Pau/Toulon: Buy Votu try minutes for 1.5 points at 15 with SX 20 elsewhere, generous compared to the best anytime price, decent on his stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 8, 2018 Author Share Posted September 8, 2018 Ospreys v Cheetahs: Buy Ospreys hotshots for 1.5 points at 64 with SPIN (T Williams, S Williams, North, D Evans) I get 78 based on try minutes mid points so that's an unusual edge. North capable of a hat trick on his own so hopefully this goes easily over the spread. A bit overdue for an update, will bring things up to date tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 9, 2018 Author Share Posted September 9, 2018 3 losers since the last update with losses of 36, 15 and 39 x stake. 3616.75 points risked and 3317.5 returned, -299.25 points with an ROI of -8.27% 39 winners from 118 bets (33.05%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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