harry_rag Posted April 30, 2018 Author Share Posted April 30, 2018 What one game gives (a 28 point profit), the next one takes away. Back above the 200 point deficit again.. 1828 points risked and 1627 returned, -201 points with an ROI of -11% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 30, 2018 Author Share Posted April 30, 2018 Nurnberg v Braunschweig: Buy Lowen's goal minutes for 1 point at 6 with SPIN 11 to buy elsewhere, that's way too high but 6 looks a reasonable price to pay for a player with 5 goals this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 30, 2018 Author Share Posted April 30, 2018 No goal for Lowen. 1834 points risked and 1627 returned, -207 points with an ROI of -11.29% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 2, 2018 Author Share Posted May 2, 2018 Roma v Liverpool: Buy cross corners for 1 point at 28 (SPIN or SX) Basically home corners multiplied by away corners so will need at least 11 (e.g. 5 x 6) to show a profit. I just think that's a low enough quote to get involved at; Roma have to go for it and Liverpool favour attack as the best form of defence. Anything can happen, including a nilling, but decent enough prospect of a high total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 2, 2018 Author Share Posted May 2, 2018 I've also bought the hotshots for 1 point at 42 with SPIN (Dzeko, Schick, Salah and Firmino). 47 to buy elsewhere which is closer to my valuation of the true price. I know this is supposedly a 1 bet per day thread but I've previously bought two sets of hotshots in the same rugby game so this is a buy of cross corners and hotshots at a combined price of 70! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 3, 2018 Author Share Posted May 3, 2018 2 losers last night, 7 points on corners and 17 on hotshots, but absolutely no regrets as I think both were sound bets. One more Liverpool corner would have seen the spread covered and, if you'd assured me in advance the game would have 6 goals, I'd have probably doubled my stake on the hotshots! 1904 points risked and 1673 returned, -231 points with an ROI of -12.13% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 3, 2018 Author Share Posted May 3, 2018 RB Salzburg v Marseille: Buy Marseille goal rush for 1 point at 13 with SPIN It was either that or cross corners at 22 in the other semi final tonight, with this bet narrowly favoured. I fully recognise the risk of a total loss if the hosts keep a clean sheet but I think the chance of them failing to do so is quite high. Should the visitors score then you're looking at a 3 point loss at worst. After that, the more the merrier! 15 to buy elsewhere, which is only 2 points more on the one hand, but to me it makes a big difference. 5 points loss for 1 goal and 5 points profit for 2 goals is a lot less appealing than the 3 point loss v 7 point profit scenario I'm looking at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 4, 2018 Author Share Posted May 4, 2018 I inevitably posted the wrong one so a 13 point loss instead of a 2 point profit! 1917 points risked and 1673 returned, -244 points with an ROI of -12.73% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 4, 2018 Author Share Posted May 4, 2018 Wigan v Salford: Buy Salford hotshots for 1 point at 31 with SPIN (Bibby, Welham, Sau, Johnson) A little light for me (31-35 elsewhere) and worth a small interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 5, 2018 Author Share Posted May 5, 2018 Not happy with last night's bet, felt it was ok at best and had doubts about the merits of posting it in here. Must focus on discipline! 1948 points risked and 1673 returned, -275 points with an ROI of -14,12% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 5, 2018 Author Share Posted May 5, 2018 Munster v Edinburgh: Buy Edinburgh hotshots for 1 point at 21 with SX (VD Merwe, Bennett, Fife, Kinghron) Back on "no regrets" territory here; 1 try enough for a modest profit, price lower than I think it should be, risk spread across 4 players one of whom (VD Merwe) strikes me as a value anytime bet (see "Outside Chance" thread). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 5, 2018 Author Share Posted May 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, harry_rag said: risk spread across 4 players one of whom (VD Merwe) strikes me as a value anytime bet (see "Outside Chance" thread). Or don't! Sorry, I am on him anytime at 3.7 but it doesn't quite qualify as a pick for my other thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 Going backwards again! Leganes v Levante: Buy Bardhi goal minutes for 1 point at 8 with SX Looks a little low to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2018 Author Share Posted May 8, 2018 No joy with the hotshots bet but a 59th minute goal for Bardhi. 1977 points risked and 1732 returned, -245 points with an ROI of -12.39% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 8, 2018 Author Share Posted May 8, 2018 Swansea v Southampton: Buy bookings for 1 point at 50 with SPIN Usual "anything can happen" stuff applies but, with everything at stake here, I can see 5 or more yellow cards as quite a likely outcome. Hopefully this "goes off big style", if you'll pardon the use of technical terminology! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 Last night didn't pan out as hoped, back on slightly more secure footing tonight (risk spread across four players and more objective that subjective) with a hotshots buy. Barcelona v Villareal: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 45 with SPIN (Messi, Coutinho, Bacca, Cheryshev) A little light for me, 49-53 elsewhere with Paulinho instead of Coutinho, which should make much difference to the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 9, 2018 Author Share Posted May 9, 2018 20 point loss on the bookings buy and a 5 point profit on the hotshots. 2072 points risked and 1812 returned, -260 points with an ROI of -12.55% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 10, 2018 Author Share Posted May 10, 2018 West Ham v Man U: Buy Man U bookings for 1 point at 16 with SPIN Averages just over 20 away from home this season, you'd have made a profit in 12 of their 18 games buying at this price (3 nillings, 3 x 6 point losses, 5 x 4 point profits and 7 profits of 14 or more points). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 11, 2018 Author Share Posted May 11, 2018 1 late yellow to minimise the loss. Oh for a bit of traction and a decent run of winners! 2088 points risked and 1822 returned, -266 points with an ROI of -12.74% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 11, 2018 Author Share Posted May 11, 2018 Leigh v Salford: Buy Leigh hotshots for 1 point at 43 with either firm (Hall, Dawson, Mata'utia, Owens) I make these just short of 48 so perceived edge of over 10%; rare to get anything like that when both firms agree on a price. These are the classic "value" bets for me, with no ego or opinion involved, just simple number crunching. 4 players onside and a double digit edge. Some win, some lose, but I suspect I'd do better if I stuck more to these entirely objective bets. Having said that, looking at the player stats does support the view that it's a decent bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 12, 2018 Author Share Posted May 12, 2018 Bulls v Sharks: Buy Lowe try minutes for 1 point at 14 with SX Looks low (no pun intended). 18 to buy elsewhere and I'd equate it to 3/1 anytime when he's sub 2/1 everywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 13, 2018 Author Share Posted May 13, 2018 On 5/12/2018 at 12:28 PM, harry_rag said: Bulls v Sharks: Buy Lowe try minutes for 1 point at 14 with SX Not sure what happened there but I managed to type the wrong player's name (there was no Lowe playing for either team). I was actually on Kotze at 14 who scored in the 54th minute. In the circumstances I'm taking the following view which seems the only sensible option. I'm not recording the bet as I can't claim the winner when I didn't post the right name but it can't be classed as a loser when there was no such player who could've been backed. That means just one bet since the last update, the nilling on Leigh hotshots! 2131 points risked and 1822 returned, -309 points with an ROI of -14.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Fulham v Derby: Buy Derby corners squared for 1 point at 15 with SPIN I approached this game with Fulham corners in mind given their need to come from behind in the tie but that seems to have been excessively factored into the prices. As a result, I think that the prices about Derby corners are a little generous. They may start the game not needing to attack too much but anything can happen over 90 minutes. Willing to take a chance on a bet that edges in front after the 4th away corner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 6 corners for Derby so a 21 point profit on the bet. 2146 points risked and 1858 returned, -288 points with an ROI of -13.42% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 16, 2018 Author Share Posted May 16, 2018 Marseille v A Madrid: Buy cross corners for 1 point at 22 with SX Essentially one team's corners multiplied by the other's. Atletico could rack up loads if the game stays goalless till late on but I'll take a chance, one way or another, on the dynamics of the game being such that both teams gain enough corners to cover the spread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 17, 2018 Author Share Posted May 17, 2018 A poor showing all round from Marseille saw them gain just a single corner to go with the 6 gained by Atletico so a 16 point loss on the bet. 2168 points risked and 1864 returned, -304 points with an ROI of -14.02% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 17, 2018 Author Share Posted May 17, 2018 Exeter v Lincoln: Buy Taylor's goal minutes for 1 point at 6 with SX 6-9 elsewhere so effectively a spread-free trade, SX go 6/1 anytime which, in itself, is a standout price but a buy at 6 is better than that. They're out on their own with their opinion on his value and I think they may be slightly wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 25, 2018 Author Share Posted May 25, 2018 No joy with the last bet. 2174 points risked and 1864 returned, -310 points with an ROI of -14.26% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 25, 2018 Author Share Posted May 25, 2018 Montpellier v Lyon: Buy Lyon hotshots for 2.5 points at 16 with SX (Palisson, Regard, Mignot, Arnold) You'd have to pay 20 elsewhere and there's no way I can get these 4 to be worth as little as 16. More than acceptable risk/reward here with 1 try showing an 9 point gain. Change of approach in the staking here, I'm posting to stakes that match my real world actual stakes on the bets. (So far they've almost all been staked as 1 point with the occasional 2 pointer on a low risk bets or 10 points on total goals to reflect the lower volatility in that market). From now on, the stake reflects my actual bet, as simple as that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 26, 2018 Author Share Posted May 26, 2018 Going to start using "TWW" as an ironic acronym for "that went well". Only one Lyon try and not from one of the shots. 2214 points risked and 1864 returned, -350 points with an ROI of -15.81% For today's entertainment, another hotshots buy. Racing 92 v Castres: Buying Racing hotshots for 2 points at 28 with SPIN (Imhoff, Vakatawa, Thomas, Dupichot) 32 to buy elsewhere which is closer to my valuation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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