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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Nov 4th & 5th

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The Premier League was full of dramatic action this weekend. The big game this coming weekend is the clash between Chelsea and Manchester United. There is also Manchester City versus Arsenal that could throw up some exciting football. Let's get the chat for these matches going now. Tips are everywhere. Let's hear them!

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interesting fixtures. i think i'm going to have a go at these.........

burnley better away than at home this season, burnley to win 1-0

west brom always hard to beat and do to what they do best defend deep, score counter attack, shut up shop, west brom win 1-0

swansea to me doesn't look like they will survive in the premiership and not scoring goals, brighton win 1-0

bilic did it to tottenham so why not liverpool, west ham to win 2-1

watford looks exciting in attack and creating oppotunites, everton need new manager and january transfer window asap, watford to win 2-1

this one is more of gut feeling than anything else. tottenham have occasionally struggled after big champions league games so crystal palace to win 2-0 and zaha to score first

 

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Going by system picks

Newcastle straight up

Watford straight up

Burnley X2 (risky pick 2)

West Ham 1X (risky pick 1)

Leicester  2DNB

Brighton +0.25 AH

The system also predicts a Chelsea-Man United draw though @2.10 DNB for ManUnited there is value. 

Also  Man City to hang 4 goals on Arsenal @4.33 could be a bet I look at.A more conservative pick is ManCity -1 @1.82

 

Best of luck to all !

 

 

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Swansea City V Brighton & Hove Albion

Brighton & Hove Albion +0.25 @ 2.10 Paddy Power

A close match on paper but the stats show Brighton are the more efficient team infront of goal and I'm not sure that markets have this one price correctly.

Obviously Brighton have form advantage but when will the fortunes of either team begin to turn? Swansea will see this as an important and winnable game against a perceived relegation rival. The home team can be a menace from wide areas in this game as I have reservations about Brighton's ability to defend flank attacks. Despite this, Paul Clement's side have struggled infront of goal all season and I'm concerned the problem might be terminal for their Premier League survival hopes.

Brighton have not exactly been world beaters in the final 3rd either but that might start to change with the return to fitness of Glenn Murray. He is a massively underrated centre-forward and he will enhance players around him such as Knockaert, March, Izquierdo and Gross.

When it comes to the crunch we have two teams that are closely matched in a difficult game to predict. I was expecting Brighton +0 line to be around 2.10 for this game but instead we're getting +0.25 line at said price. Brighton +0.25 @ odds against seems to be a reasonable value play here.

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Everton V Watford

Watford +0.25 @ 2.12 Betvictor

I feel Watford are priced too big against a struggling Everton side here. I watched Leicester V Everton at the weekend and David Unsworth has a task on his hands. Everton showed some decent countering threat with the forward runs of Aaron Lennon and long passing of Wayne Rooney but they still lack a ruthless centre-forward and genuine midfield playmaker. This may become even more apparent in home matches where you have to make the game + the Goodison crowd can run out of patience pretty quickly these days.

Watford on the other hand are suited to playing away from home and I think they can cause Everton some problems here. We know that Troy Deeney will be banned for this game after Joe Allen incident but it shouldn't be of too much concern as Andre Gray will be a handy replacement for this game with his speed on the counter. I also expect Richarlison and Carrillo will like this game as Everton have really struggled at right-back this season in the absence of Seamus Coleman and Unsworth looks no closer to finding a solution there.

Watford ahead on key metrics, ELO ratings. Everton have to play in Lyon on Thursday. Markets have Everton as clear favourites for Watford game and I cannot understand why. I would expect +/- 0 line to be much more balanced than it is here. Watford +0.25 @ odds against seems to be decent value play in this situation.

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Chelsea v Man United

Is it me or are United a hard watch. They are so dull and one paced, and ponderous, but they grind out results.

Certainly unspectacular, totally incomparable to Man City, but pretty rock solid defensively.  The win over Benfica, guarantees them CL knockout football. It has been an easy CL campaign so far. No stress, no effort, but no fire either. I don't think you can switch that on and off. The emotion is just flat. Nobody seems fired up !

I see more of the same in this game. Dogged, pedestrian, grinding, leaning towards defense over offense, hard to beat. I don't think there will be goals here. United will come to win it 0-1. Realistically a 541 in defense playing on the break.

Chelsea have had a tough week. Travel to Italy and get a proper hiding. 3-0 is a solid smack. Things are starting to unravel a little. Conte is annoyed (fair enough), but do Chelsea really want a remarriage to Ancelotti ? Its like kissing an old girlfriend. Nice memories but it's not the same !

I think the Man United win, draw no bet is decently priced at even money

I also think the total goals in the game (0 or 1) is a decent bet at 2.9

Edited by neilovan

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Swansea likely to best Brighton, probably with a goal in hand, just my imo.

Brighton are tidy, but we need the win and I hear we're going all guns blazing to finish the game by half time then park the bus.

Edited by andrewcalo

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1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

Swansea likely to best Brighton, probably with a goal in hand, just my imo.

Brighton are tidy, but we need the win and I hear we're going all guns blazing to finish the game by half time then park the bus.

Interesting, I might have a small bet on over 0.5 goals by the first 30 minutes, at 2.00 it's tempting.

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Swansea City v Brighton

Swansea City: Wilfried Bony (4/0 f, doubtful), Leon Britton (4/0 m, illness), Angel Rangel (1/0 d), Martin Olsson (9/0 d), Renato Sanches (5/0 m), Kyle Bartley (2/0 d)

Brighton: Beram Kayal (0/0 m), Sam Baldock (0/0 f)(both doubtful), Steve Sidwell (0/0 m)

 

West Ham v Liverpool FC

West Ham: Pablo Zabaleta (10/0 d, suspended), Sam Byram (0/0 d), Jose Fonte (8/0 d), Michail Antonio (8/1 m), James Collins (3/0 d)

Liverpool FC: Sadio Mané (5/3 f, probably in), Georginio Wijnaldum (8/1 m), Dejan Lovren (7/0 d)(both doubtful), Philippe Coutinho (5/2 m), Danny Ward (0/0 g), Nathaniel Clyne (0/0 d), Adam Lallana (0/0 m), Adam Bogdan (0/0 g)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Chelsea double chance + u2.5 @ 2.38

Despite Chelsea poor performance at midweek, I don't think they will lose this game. Mourinho has always adapt a not to lose strategy even when facing teams that are not really in good form. I'm not backing Man Utd double chance as I think Chelsea has a higher chance of winning.

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Parlay hit!

Leicester 2DNB push

Burnley double chance hit!

Newcastle LOSS

Now submitting final play for today 

0.5 unit for West Ham Double chance

0.5 unit West Ham straight up

 

Best of luck!

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My system says 4 home wins tomorrow. Likely too. Spurs should be too much for Palace. Man City have an extra day of rest over the Arse and are home. Everton at home and need the win and Kante back for Chelsea who are due a win by now and the scum aka Judas neber thinks straught agaunst his former club. That one looks 1-0/2-0.

It looked like draws this week but I held back tipping due to the differentials. 1 draw is now most likley :)

My parlay -

4 home wins premiership with Man City added over 2.5 and the Chelsea win two bets 1-0 2-0 (smaller stake).

Las Palmas +3

Sociedad over 2.5.

and a separate acca as Chelsea win under 2.5 with two of @betcatalog 's picks added - Roma game over 2 5 and Lyon game over 2.5.

That last one comes in at 230 to 1. Happy days :)

 

p.s.s The Real Madrid V Las Palmas bet in particular is the outstanding play this week .

Notorious eat your heart out lol

Both these fixtures last season ended in score DRAWS! You can get Las Palmas +4 at 1.65! Crazy.

Real Madrid will want a win here, nothing more. And las Palmas didn't play mid-week.

 

Edited by andrewcalo

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Chelsea's defense in Rome was tragic, so today I expect to be very cautious, on the other hand Mourinho all the big matches have to face very close to zero in the defense, so today I expect a game with few goals
CHELSEA FC vs MANCHESTER UNITED @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.67

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Crystal Palace have failed to score in their last 7 away games in Premier League.
Man Utd have kept a clean sheet in 83% of their last 12 games in Premier League.
Man City are undefeated in their last 18 games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 47 Football Betting Streaks for 05.11.2017 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-05-11-2017

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I am torn about this Manchester City versus Arsenal game today. It's the sort of game where you write Arsenal off and they pull off a stunning win. However, this is different. This Manchester City team is so dominant right now that it's hard to see how an Arsenal side that are so inconsistent away from home can cope with the attacking prowess of the home team. I'm definitely tempted to back over 3.5 goals here. One way or another, goals will fly in!

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On 02/11/2017 at 10:01 PM, andrewcalo said:

Swansea likely to best Brighton, probably with a goal in hand, just my imo.

Brighton are tidy, but we need the win and I hear we're going all guns blazing to finish the game by half time then park the bus.

It seems they couldn't find a bus in time!

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