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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Oct 20th - 22nd

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OK, so the Premier League through up some shocks last weekend with Crystal Palace beating Chelsea and Arsenal losing to Watford... well, that second one might not have been so much of a surprise but you get what I mean! So what do you all think for this coming weekend of action? The big match here is Tottenham versus Liverpool. Got a feeling it could be a really exciting game.

@Mindfulness, the pain is finally over! Bet you're loving life again! Even if you are still 5 points adrift of safety... but it's a huge step in the right direction.

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22 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

@Mindfulness, the pain is finally over! Bet you're loving life again! Even if you are still 5 points adrift of safety... but it's a huge step in the right direction.

Yeh it was a great win mate, I'm not gonna get carried away with it but hopefully Palace can put together a string of positive results now.

Newcastle Utd V Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace +0.75 AH @ 1.69 Betvictor

I had my eye on this fixture before Palace V Chelsea as Palace +0.75 line was at a massive 1.81 for Newcastle match. I managed to get on it at 1.71 immediately after Palace V Chelsea and generally Palace have come in further since then but there is still value to be had imo.

This is a game where we will look to confound the stats as Palace may have turned a corner with Chelsea performance and victory. I mentioned in the previous thread about spirit, desire and belief being key and thankfully it would seem Palace still have those things + Hodgson is starting to make his mark on the structure of the team.

Newcastle have suprised me somewhat since being back in the EPL, they have done better than I'd expected and generally performances have been good. I do still have some reservations about their level of goal threat and an organised Palace defence may be able to keep them out here. Despite this I'm not going to underestimate Newcastle, they play as a team and don't look short on confidence so I prefer to take the more cautious +0.75 line for Palace but that's just personal preference. Some of you may take Palace +0.50 line here.

Speaking of which, I give Palace a 60% chance of avoiding defeat in this game which means Palace +0.50 line should be around 1.67 but instead we're getting a juicy 1.93 at the time of writing this. To me it's a clear value bet so I have to get involved.

 

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Hello,

 A Gooner checking in. I certainly wouldn’t be backing us at even money with an away record of P4 W0 D1 L3 F1 A7. Although Everton aren’t in great form either, they beat us in this fixture last year and will be tempting in the draw no bet market.

 West Ham were showing signs of a revival recently and were undone by Andy Carroll’s sending off at the weekend. I think they will be worth backing at home to Brighton.

I think Spurs' goalpower will be too much for a defensively suspect Liverpool

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On 16/10/2017 at 1:49 PM, AK1979 said:

Hello,

 A Gooner checking in. I certainly wouldn’t be backing us at even money with an away record of P4 W0 D1 L3 F1 A7. Although Everton aren’t in great form either, they beat us in this fixture last year and will be tempting in the draw no bet market.

 West Ham were showing signs of a revival recently and were undone by Andy Carroll’s sending off at the weekend. I think they will be worth backing at home to Brighton.

I think Spurs' goalpower will be too much for a defensively suspect Liverpool

You have my sincerest sympathies as an Arsenal fan. Do you think it is feasible that if things don't improve then the board will sack Wenger? Or is he definitely there until the end of the season now? I think so long as there is profit that the board will keep him.

I've got a feeling Everton could start to pick up. Koeman isn't a mug. He'll know that if his side aren't winning games then he needs to make them hard to beat. He'll have watched that Watford game and been licking his lips at the amount of weaknesses of Arsenal that were exposed.

I agree about Tottenham and Liverpool. I just think Pochettino is by far the more competent tactician.

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I have not submitted any play yet 

My system plays for this weekend to choose from are

West Ham straight up

Newcastle straight up

West Brom,Leicester,Liverpool pick whichever market of Double Chance or +0.5 AH offers better odds.Their matches have DRAW written all over them but I prefer to play the underdog win a bit conservative 

Chelsea-Watford  x2 or Watford +1,5 AH

My gut play will be Everton-Arsenal but I'm waiting for their games today at Europa League.If Everton loses I expect Koeman to be sacked and this could affect their game against Arsenal.Otherwise it's double chance Everton

 

I will post by tomorrow which plays I'll be submitting

 

Best of luck to all 

Edited by JKos

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West Ham v Brighton

West Ham: Javier Hernández (8/3 f, probably in), Andy Carroll (5/0 f, suspended), Diafra Sakho (7/1 f), James Collins (3/0 d), Adrián (0/0 g, illness)

Brighton: Shane Duffy (8/0 d, doubtful), Tomer Hemed (6/2 f, suspended), Steve Sidwell (0/0 m), Beram Kayal (0/0 m), Sam Baldock (0/0 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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On 10/18/2017 at 11:25 AM, StevieDay1983 said:

I've got a feeling Everton could start to pick up. Koeman isn't a mug. He'll know that if his side aren't winning games then he needs to make them hard to beat. He'll have watched that Watford game and been licking his lips at the amount of weaknesses of Arsenal that were exposed.

Everton had some fight in them today, not that it mattered much lol

I have my eye on two games this weekend. 

CHELSEA v WATFORD

Watford dug their heels in against Arsenal and fortune went their way. They'll have confidence going in to this game that they can nick something. ALSO - Chelsea are woeful at the moment and leaking goals with the lack of Kante, who they have relied on way too much and that is now costing them.

BTTS seems a cert, as Watford will take advantage. I think the +1 on Watford is also juicy given the way Chelsea are suffering .they weren't doing too great before the injury woes. I think there's a lot of value there.

 

MAN CITY v BURNLEY  -  Burnley +2 (odds of 3.3!!! ), or BTTS

This is down to the quality and steadfastness of Burnley who are doing great this season and also because of Man City's Champions league exertions. Burnley can disappoint here, and I think Man City are marginally overpriced due to the hammering they gave Stoke last week.

Burnley should be able to get one past them.

Finally, my book is offering Burnley at a ridiculous 26 to 1 to win. What the fcuk are they thinking? If it was the likes of Bournemouth or dare I say it Swansea this would still be a piss-take. 

I'll stick a tenner on that. Cashout if Burnley make it to half time looking good will be £50 at least.

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andrewcalo I like your underdog selections.My projected score for Man City vs Burnley is 3-1 therefore the asian handicap +2,5 for Burnley could seem a good value bet.

Man City and Chelsea were in midweek dog fights so I expect fatigue.

Watford and Burnley are playing better on the road this year than at home so there is potential.

 

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On 10/16/2017 at 3:49 PM, AK1979 said:

Hello,

 A Gooner checking in. I certainly wouldn’t be backing us at even money with an away record of P4 W0 D1 L3 F1 A7. Although Everton aren’t in great form either, they beat us in this fixture last year and will be tempting in the draw no bet market.

 West Ham were showing signs of a revival recently and were undone by Andy Carroll’s sending off at the weekend. I think they will be worth backing at home to Brighton.

I think Spurs' goalpower will be too much for a defensively suspect Liverpool

Arsenal seem to have settled a bit on the road despite their loss against Watford and if there ever was a game to pounce on it's this Sunday against Everton who have been struggling.

My system says Everton double chance but my gut says Arsenal

Edited by JKos

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

West Ham have won their last 3 games against Brighton in all competitions.

West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their last 7 home games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 52 Football Betting Streaks for 20.10.2017 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-20-10-2017

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Wet Spam V Brighton

Everyone seems to have us down for a speaking here! But as with the EVERTON game, it is a game where we should be looking to come away with something. WHU are below BHA on goal difference and there is a confidant mood that actually we will be good enough to avoid a thrashing. BHA just lack the quality going forward, and their counter attacks broke down too easily last week. But defensively they are solid, although Duffy could be a doubt, he is in the squad and should be included.

Form suggests it will be low on goals, and I can't see anything other than a low scoring affair. Friday night football doesn't tend to produce too much excitement either. 

Here goes

As in the EVERTON game, I think it will be a game which will open up more in the second half...

MOST CORNERS IN 2nd HALF 1.91 WH (I have done this one)

MOST GOALS 2nd HALF 2.1 B365

Then again I could be completely wrong! 

Edited by Tiffy

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West Ham vs Brighton

Prediction : West Ham Over 1.5 Team Cards

Price: 4/5 (1.80)

Analysis : This bet wins in the last 6 out of 7 times when West Ham have played at home in the Premier League. West Ham will be looking to get a third successive win at home against a direct competitor for the mid table positions.The referee is Martin Atkinson who gives average 3.8 cards!

 

Edited by Sir Puntalot
If you wish to link to your site, please have the courtesy to ask at team@punterslounge.com

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10 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

Everton had some fight in them today, not that it mattered much lol

I have my eye on two games this weekend. 

CHELSEA v WATFORD

Watford dug their heels in against Arsenal and fortune went their way. They'll have confidence going in to this game that they can nick something. ALSO - Chelsea are woeful at the moment and leaking goals with the lack of Kante, who they have relied on way too much and that is now costing them.

BTTS seems a cert, as Watford will take advantage. I think the +1 on Watford is also juicy given the way Chelsea are suffering .they weren't doing too great before the injury woes. I think there's a lot of value there.

 

MAN CITY v BURNLEY  -  Burnley +2 (odds of 3.3!!! ), or BTTS

This is down to the quality and steadfastness of Burnley who are doing great this season and also because of Man City's Champions league exertions. Burnley can disappoint here, and I think Man City are marginally overpriced due to the hammering they gave Stoke last week.

Burnley should be able to get one past them.

Finally, my book is offering Burnley at a ridiculous 26 to 1 to win. What the fcuk are they thinking? If it was the likes of Bournemouth or dare I say it Swansea this would still be a piss-take. 

I'll stick a tenner on that. Cashout if Burnley make it to half time looking good will be £50 at least.

26 to 1. Well, one shouldn’t fall too in love with a number. You really think Burnley will beat every top side?

A little perspective. Since I’ve been keeping track of large underdogs in 2008, dogs of greater than 20.00 in Premier are 1-0-15 (you remember the win). Kind of a small sample. OK. Back it up to underdogs of greater than 15.00, and the dogs’ record is 2-7-92. Still feel like 26 to 1 is worth a tenner?

For the record, that’s 2% wins and 7% draws for the huge dogs. So the number is relatively fair, at least for the win. And that’s how books work. They don’t look at every match and assess every side’s record, unless they think public perception won’t gibe with reality. They look at the database and see huge dogs do in general, and set the number where they think they can take some money for something that most likely Will Not Happen.

Burnley were 11.93 average odds at Bet Explorer when they won at Chelsea. That’s the opening weekend, before anybody knew anything. In round 3, they were 14.92 at Tottenham, where they drew at 6.79. In round 5 they went to Pool with odds of 12.22, where they drew at 6.21. At Everton, they won with odds of 5.48.

So, they have yet to be this huge a dog. Think City will overlook them, rotate the starting 11, lose?

Man City drew at home to an Everton side with odds of 10.75. Last two at home, they’ve been huge favorites: They beat Palace (20.38) 5-0, and Stoke (18.53) 7-2.

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Bookies have a blind spot for certain teams, i.e Leicester in THAT season, Burnley pretty much every game this season. They figure that it can't happen again, which is to our advantage.

Also, take a look at the way they construe the odds after an underdog goes one down, those 12 to 1 shoot up to 20 to 1. If it's an early goal? How many dogs go on to equalise and win then? The system generalises and the fact that they can't be looking minutely at every game works in our favour.

As a Swansea supporter, I speak from experience with regards to underdogs. 

Law of probability also works both ways - i.e. that one win in 16 for the odds greater than 20? could mean a second win is just waiting to happen.

It'll take some luck, for sure, but this should be a 12 to 1 shot, never a 26 to 1.

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i don't think chelsea is a happy camp right now with injury to kante, morata and now luiz and bakayoko. i'm sure they are alright offensively but underestimated this watford side is a bad move. it wasn't a coincidence that they won against arsenal. i'm backing them to beat chelsea outright and also on double chance on them. i am also backing both teams to score perhaps in first or second half

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The system has seen me place bets on underdogs and they come in. Law of averages. I predict no more than three draws maximum this weekend, with three or four home wins, and most likely five away wins.

EDIT: Outside chance of it being 4 home 3 draws and 3 aways, based on disparity over three seasons.

EDIT 2: In a perfect world, we'd see 3 home, 3 draws, 4 away wins.

Edited by andrewcalo

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I bet on Burnley DNB to beat Everton and Liverpool to draw with Newcastle. Came in at 14 to 1.

I usually get my big wins on Sunday, when I see what games remain and what number of Home Draw Away results I figure are left to come in.

Edited by andrewcalo

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For Leicester yes, Swansea not so much. The fans are a bit more relaxed now we've started scoring, and we can see the team really start to come together. Dyer is back and looking good, Ki is back and looking good, Mesa showing his quality, Bony still injured but it won't be long before he is firing them in again. It's the highest we've been in three seasons at this time. 

I'd say it all depends on whether Leicester turn up or not, being without a manager puts them in a strange spot right now. Odds look about right. I'll probably go for BTTS.

Edited by andrewcalo

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