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Red & Yellow Card Spreads


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I've turned my attention to football bookings, an area I've never looked at before. Using the results from the football-data site I've found that combining each team's red/yellow card stats with those of the match referee is quite a powerful predictor.

As a spread better mainly, I'm disappointed to find it's only televised matches and the Premiership have bookings spreads.

On my figures (10pts yellow, 25pts red) Sunday's Derby v Forest looks way over-priced, with Spreadex going 50-54 (SI are 48-52). Not quite a bet against my trigger point but only fractionally short. I know there's a great deal of rivalry between these two close neighbours, is that the reason for the high quote? Looking back over the past 5 years of this fixture the average make-up has been 40 ~ so are local derbies always so over-rated?

I've had a quick look at regular bookies for red/yellow card markets but failed to find one that quotes outside the Premiership and/or televised games. Does anyone know of a bookie who quotes for lower league bookings markets? (total cards - not which team most cards or odd/even cards)
 

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I didn't, no issues with that however it was just a fraction of a point short of my trigger point.

Always follow what my calculations tell me to do. I'll be on Premiership games from now on, so I'll likely see more action on the bookings front ~ a minimum of 4 home/away games is the basis of my figures.

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  • StevieDay1983 changed the title to Red & Yellow Card Spreads

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