Stats

[BillyHills]

1 hour ago, donal said:

hi bubbles  looking back over the monthly daily tips challenge  luckypants and bymatrix seem to have a reasonable strike rate most months is it possible to see what the yeild would be for a 1pt win on their daily selection from when they started posting hope your enjoying cheltenham

You dont ask much do you!!

What did your last slave die of?

All the tables are there mate, work it out, its not difficult

[Bubbles180]

1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

You dont ask much do you!!

What did your last slave die of?

All the tables are there mate, work it out, its not difficult

Dont work out individual tips but using the page just go cback through the results Billy puts up each month and you can get their P&L, enjoying Cheltenham in the SUN

[evertorial]

Hi pl tips, I've now been following your tips for about a month and while there are some great shouts, particularly in cheltenham i am a bit concerned about the figures and prices. Im doing the very best I can to follow the same prices as well as using bog only bookies which is essential to make profit with you. Over this period of time I believe that I am about level in terms of profit made. So no profit made and none lost.

   However I have found some discrepancies in the results published which concern me and lead me to believe that maybe the level of profit published on the results page cannot be replicated by the follower. For example there are numerous horses which won that were hit with rule 4s. Now this kind of result is unavoidable and must be included in a results page to maintain accuracy. An example Is roundabout magic who won last month, I was hit with a rule 4 on b365 bv and whill. However no rule 4 was claimed on your results page. You gave the winner a full 5/1 win.

  Another discrepancy I have found is that on the site you will often award a tip to the bookie with the best odds the day before but also claim bog if it is awarded. So for example yesterday you tipped Bengali boys at 11/2 in a race at Newcastle. This horse was only available at that price with coral. And perhaps a few other bookies who dont offer bog the day before the race. All bookies who offer pre day bog such as b365 and bv were offering around 4/1, and the other bookies such as coral fell to around 4/1 very shortly after you post the 11/2 price.

So if a selection such as this drifts by race time to higher than the quoted price then it would be inaccurate to give it the starting price as you have claimed an early price with a bookmaker who doesn't offer bog until same day of the race. However I'm off the belief that you would still give bog to this tip despite it being impossible to do as the only bookies offering the early high price don't offer bog pre day and the odds had dropped by the next day.

Please take this as constructive criticism as I am someone who wants to use this service still and I do applaud the strength of the tips. However it does concern me that there are these discrepancies as both clearly mean that the follower of these tips is long term not going to attain the kind of results published on the results page. And these tips are making around 2 points a day on average so the user wants to be able to follow the exact prices and get bog fairly and if these discrepancies exist, they will eat into the users profit margins.

 Cheers

[Sir Puntalot]

12 minutes ago, evertorial said:

Hi pl tips, I've now been following your tips for about a month and while there are some great shouts, particularly in cheltenham i am a bit concerned about the figures and prices. Im doing the very best I can to follow the same prices as well as using bog only bookies which is essential to make profit with you. Over this period of time I believe that I am about level in terms of profit made. So no profit made and none lost.

   However I have found some discrepancies in the results published which concern me and lead me to believe that maybe the level of profit published on the results page cannot be replicated by the follower. For example there are numerous horses which won that were hit with rule 4s. Now this kind of result is unavoidable and must be included in a results page to maintain accuracy. An example Is roundabout magic who won last month, I was hit with a rule 4 on b365 bv and whill. However no rule 4 was claimed on your results page. You gave the winner a full 5/1 win.

  Another discrepancy I have found is that on the site you will often award a tip to the bookie with the best odds the day before but also claim bog if it is awarded. So for example yesterday you tipped Bengali boys at 11/2 in a race at Newcastle. This horse was only available at that price with coral. And perhaps a few other bookies who dont offer bog the day before the race. All bookies who offer pre day bog such as b365 and bv were offering around 4/1, and the other bookies such as coral fell to around 4/1 very shortly after you post the 11/2 price.

So if a selection such as this drifts by race time to higher than the quoted price then it would be inaccurate to give it the starting price as you have claimed an early price with a bookmaker who doesn't offer bog until same day of the race. However I'm off the belief that you would still give bog to this tip despite it being impossible to do as the only bookies offering the early high price don't offer bog pre day and the odds had dropped by the next day.

Please take this as constructive criticism as I am someone who wants to use this service still and I do applaud the strength of the tips. However it does concern me that there are these discrepancies as both clearly mean that the follower of these tips is long term not going to attain the kind of results published on the results page. And these tips are making around 2 points a day on average so the user wants to be able to follow the exact prices and get bog fairly and if these discrepancies exist, they will eat into the users profit margins.

 Cheers

@evertorial  Can you send any rule 4 discrepancies to [email protected] and we'll look into them. We do adjust for Rule 4's but Rule4 info in general is not the best to attain. Send those queries to us and we'll check them.

We do claim BOG and we're up front about that, but it is such a small percentage, I don't even think it warrants a mention. We base the tips on what most punters can get and BOG is just that.

Unlike other services, PL remains a free site for everything it provides and it will always be that under my watch. There are so many paid for services claiming things that are essentially not viable, Pricewise being a big culprit as you can never get on at the prices quoted. 

We provide a free racing service and betting community and do this because everyone behind the scene are "Punters" themselves. We don't take your feedback as a negative at all, we just wish other sites would publish their tips history in the same way, but they don't for very good reasons.

One thing I would say is that the flat season "appears" to be more profitable under our system.

[evertorial]

56 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

@evertorial  

We do claim BOG and we're up front about that, but it is such a small percentage, I don't even think it warrants a mention. We base the tips on what most punters can get and BOG is just that.
 

Thanks for the reply. 

While I take on board what your saying I do think your understating the importance of bog. I would say the importance of bog is far more significant than your implying however. In the last month I would say I have made well over 20-30 points more than i would have without bog. I'm talking about taking on horses at 6/1 who raise to 12/1 and win. I remember that happening a couple of times and very regularly I will get horses who raise a point or two. Bog in my opinion is essential to make profit. Had I not had bog last month I would be in quite a significant loss. 

[Sir Puntalot]

32 minutes ago, evertorial said:

Thanks for the reply. 

While I take on board what your saying I do think your understating the importance of bog. I would say the importance of bog is far more significant than your implying however. In the last month I would say I have made well over 20-30 points more than i would have without bog. I'm talking about taking on horses at 6/1 who raise to 12/1 and win. I remember that happening a couple of times and very regularly I will get horses who raise a point or two. Bog in my opinion is essential to make profit. Had I not had bog last month I would be in quite a significant loss. 

Appreciate what you're saying but over 20,000 tips is what our record is based on, no other tips site comes close to that or as transparent. We will look to pull the stats apart towards the end of the year, as @Bubbles180 has done with course performance which is very interesting. We are moving the site to a brand new setup, which will allow us to make big advances in how we do things, but that is going to be a big task covering a big part of 2018.  

[MCLARKE]

To support the claim that the flat season "appears" to be more profitable an analysis that I have carried out shows the following returns on investment.

Flat Turf 9.9%

NH 5.1%

Flat AW 3.3%

 

Looking forward to the start of the flat turf season on Saturday !

[Keith Allies]

I am interested to know if anybody using the Racing Tips has found a system of reducing the number of  selections but still producing a profit.

Keith

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @Keith Allies   

I think this is what you're looking for.  

[Keith Allies]

"I think this is what you're looking for".    ?????  What? Where?

[BillyHills]

3 hours ago, Keith Allies said:

I am interested to know if anybody using the Racing Tips has found a system of reducing the number of  selections but still producing a profit.

Keith

Try searching Punters Lounge Tips

 

This one works for me

 

[MCLARKE]

I normally don't bet on the flat until May when the form and ground has settled a little. However analysing the PL tips I may have to change my mind.

April is the 2nd most profitable month of the year with a LSP of £132, only July at £141 is higher but there are a lot more runners in July.

April shows a very impressive ROI of 40.3% compared to the overall flat turf ROI of 9.9%.

Here's hoping that this year is as good as last !

[JJ2018]

Hi,

 

New member here read a few forum posts and how to be profitable etc... Figured myself I may just trade the NAP and Daily Treble selections on Betfair and take small profits as the prices drops etc.. 

Maybe hope to make 20% on outlay so a £10 bet on the NAP trade out at min of £2 profit etc...

I have decided I will LAY any Odds-On shots put up, looking to back at bigger price in-running as they lose money over time it's logical to Lay-Back. All Other I will BACK and look to LAY in-Running... I will test with £5 bets looking to make £1 profit which is a 20% return on outlay and may also attempt DOB but we shall see how it goes... Let me know if anybody out there has already tried this

Edited March 25, 2018 by JJ2018
added more

[evertorial]

Hi all. I've been recording my results now in following the pl tips and I do 4/1+ bets. I'm now around 40 points down in about 2 weeks. Makes very grim reading. Has it simply just been a bad run or can I expect more of the same?

I understand that the largest draw down is said to be around 65 points but 40 points already since I've been recording is concerning. 

I am taking all odds as advised on the tips page as well as getting best odds guaranteed with each bet. 

Are we simply going through a very rough patch at the moment? 

I have been doing the tips before this from the start of Feb and I'm pretty sure no profit was made before I started recording. If it was then it was minimal 

Edited April 1, 2018 by evertorial

[WiggoBets]

I think the answer is yes, the tips are going through a very rough patch right now. After going 17 consecutive months (I think it was) with profit It's fair to say its been a really really bad winter no doubt about it. However, as pointed out on a couple of other threads, the Profit and ROI is considerably higher for the flat season so let's hope we see an improvement in the near future. I'm sure it is very frustrating for @BillyHills as there have been a fair amount of new members that have voiced their concern as they were expecting the  successful results from the early days of the tips page. 

[BillyHills]

I read somewhere that the last couple of months have been the worst for punters in general for sometime.
Something like 7 consecutive odds on shots lost during March and the amount of big priced winners has been amazing.
I suppose it the continued wet weather that has disrupted the form book and it probably wont get any better until May at the earliest.

Anyway, all i can say is that I run two personal threads that use the PL Tips and both scraped a profit in March. Not much but not losing anything is pretty good at the minute.

The Naps thread and the Top 10 tracks thread.

All the best

PS:

For the record I have never once recommended backing the tips at 4/1+ only. 

Quote

I've been recording my results now in following the pl tips and I do 4/1+ bets. I'm now around 40 points down in about 2 weeks. Makes very grim reading. Has it simply just been a bad run or can I expect more of the same?

 

[Bubbles180]

13 hours ago, evertorial said:

Hi all. I've been recording my results now in following the pl tips and I do 4/1+ bets. I'm now around 40 points down in about 2 weeks. Makes very grim reading. Has it simply just been a bad run or can I expect more of the same?

I understand that the largest draw down is said to be around 65 points but 40 points already since I've been recording is concerning. 

I am taking all odds as advised on the tips page as well as getting best odds guaranteed with each bet. 

Are we simply going through a very rough patch at the moment? 

I have been doing the tips before this from the start of Feb and I'm pretty sure no profit was made before I started recording. If it was then it was minimal 

I understand @evertorial your comments but may I ask how long have you been following the system, if it has only been the last 2 weeks then unfortunately you started at the wrong time, for example as you say the last 2 weeks have seen a loss of 40 points, in fact in the last week we lost 50+ points again very frustrating for those just joining, BUT at the start of the month we were 51.85 points in profit up to 8th March, the truth is at the end of March we still made a profit of 11.75 points.

[Bubbles180]

2018 Stats to End March

Month    Bets    Won    Lost    S/R    P&L    ROI

Jan    345    83    262    24.06%    52.23     15.14%
Feb    312    75    237    24.04%    55.58     17.81%
Mar    354    67    287    18.93%    11.75     3.32%

Edited April 2, 2018 by Bubbles180

[evertorial]

3 hours ago, Bubbles180 said:

I understand @evertorial your comments but may I ask how long have you been following the system, if it has only been the last 2 weeks then unfortunately you started at the wrong time, for example as you say the last 2 weeks have seen a loss of 40 points, in fact in the last week we lost 50+ points again very frustrating for those just joining, BUT at the start of the month we were 51.85 points in profit up to 8th March, the truth is at the end of March we still made a profit of 11.75 points.

I was following since 1st of Feb and not recording. But started recording from mid March. I couldn't really complain about the tips because there have been a lot of steamers in there. For example race just gone we had 8/1 on gamesome. He went off less than half that price, so we got good value but then got no sort of race from him.

The luck really is at a low at the moment. It Has to change as the law of probabilities means it will have to, hopefully sooner rather than later.

[Decookie]

On 4/2/2018 at 9:56 AM, Bubbles180 said:

2018 Stats to End March

Month    Bets    Won    Lost    S/R    P&L    ROI

Jan    345    83    262    24.06%    52.23     15.14%
Feb    312    75    237    24.04%    55.58     17.81%
Mar    354    67    287    18.93%    11.75     3.32%

hey bubbles , sorry to bother you etc , i know this is old . but was this the 4/1 + stats or PL stats in general ?

[Bubbles180]

4/1+ stats

[Decookie]

ok  cool thanx , your such a big help i read most of your stats , and nice job today  thanks to PL , and of course Billy , lets hope its back on track 

[Bubbles180]

Hi guys me again with some more stats for you

As you know I run a stats sheet for the PL Naps by @BillyHills and the PL Trebles (as well as Singles & Doubles in the PL Trebles) Ihave now done a Stat for adding all 4 selections together as a 4 timer, 1 bet per day only if theie are 4 different selections and the stats come out like this

237.00    Total Staked
248.44    Flat Profit

104.83%    ROI

237    Runners

17    Winners

220    Lost

7.17%    Strike Rate

Their are long losing runs on this but the payout on a 4 timer is high the avg odds are 45/1

2017    Aug          Sep      Oct        Nov      Dec    2018  Jan        Feb      Mar

           127.99    -6.25    -31.00    15.56    74.36           21.23    -12.20    44.75

[Baracca]

On 22/04/2018 at 7:12 AM, Bubbles180 said:

Hi guys me again with some more stats for you

As you know I run a stats sheet for the PL Naps by @BillyHills and the PL Trebles (as well as Singles & Doubles in the PL Trebles) Ihave now done a Stat for adding all 4 selections together as a 4 timer, 1 bet per day only if theie are 4 different selections and the stats come out like this

237.00    Total Staked
248.44    Flat Profit

104.83%    ROI

237    Runners

17    Winners

220    Lost

7.17%    Strike Rate

Their are long losing runs on this but the payout on a 4 timer is high the avg odds are 45/1

2017    Aug          Sep      Oct        Nov      Dec    2018  Jan        Feb      Mar

           127.99    -6.25    -31.00    15.56    74.36           21.23    -12.20    44.75

Thanks for sharing this information Bubbles. I will start to make the 4-fold.

[Decookie]

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Posted 2 April 2018 9:56am (edited)

2018 Stats to End March

Month    Bets    Won    Lost    S/R    P&L    ROI

Jan    345    83    262    24.06%    52.23     15.14%
Feb    312    75    237    24.04%    55.58     17.81%
Mar    354    67    287    18.93%    11.75     3.32%

Edited 2 April 2018 9:56am by Bubbles180

 1

You reacted to this

hi All 
just my thoughts , but if as BUBBLES, stats suggest , the 4/1 + EW , would earn more profit . for less outlay , does this not say we would be better off just doing that , rather than the whole suggested tips , i read elsewhere that BillyHills possibly does not agree ?   just a thought for discussion  

[Sir Puntalot]

@Decookie - I've merged this otherwise things become a mess a very quickly.  

[Sir Puntalot]

@Bubbles180 has provided some great insight into better profitability and breakdown of the stats in general, but nothing is ever certain to stay that way.

We'll keep providing the tips, and along with a major racecards update we should start to be able to have stats on demand for everyone towards the end of this year, but we're undertaking big upgrades and it does take time.  I hate waiting for things myself, but having been right in the centre of designers/developers over the last 18 months, I understand it's much better to wait and get it right than serve up a half baked potato.  

The one thing I love about this thread is it shows we're not hiding or trying to manipulate anything, whereas other sites do exactly that by either not publishing all their stats or just crowing about a 30/1 accy they hit.  

PL does things differently, it always has and always will.  

 

[Kingdom for]

On 10/11/2017 at 1:30 AM, Bubbles180 said:

Yes only up to 25/1 not bigger and yes 8/1 over E/W

Interesting, thank you.

I did an exercise on my own bets, working back from the highest odds I had bet.  For me, around 14/1 was the point where I should not bet to, on average, get the best return for the buck.

[Hightower1981]

Amazing stats and info guys but I am wondering about the best way to proceed with a small bankroll of £300

I am looking to do either the treble was singles with a compounding stake strategy playing a certain % of bank each week or the singles between 4/1 and 25/1 but having such a small bank undecided on the best way to go.

Any help would be greatfully received 

[Sir Puntalot]

On 27/10/2018 at 10:52 AM, Hightower1981 said:

Amazing stats and info guys but I am wondering about the best way to proceed with a small bankroll of £300

I am looking to do either the treble was singles with a compounding stake strategy playing a certain % of bank each week or the singles between 4/1 and 25/1 but having such a small bank undecided on the best way to go.

Any help would be greatfully received 

@Hightower1981 - This question has so many answers, you have to do what you feel comfortable doing or perhaps paper trade them for a while to test.