Stats

[911RCZ]

I am still puzzled as to the accuracy of the results in regards to accumulators . I looked up results for the 31/10/17

Wait for me fell in the 3 25 chep but the stats show that it was a winner which means looking for possible doubles the stats are not accurate

Also the winning trebles  prices and the amount won do not match

[MCLARKE]

First post on here but must congratulate you on your excellent tips.

I was actually looking for a decent forum to use but was intrigued by the claims of 16 winning months.

I must admit I was initially sceptical, especially after analysing the 1st 3 weeks which showed a loss of over £2,000 on paper. However in the 2 months since then the tips have shown a profit of £2,500 on paper despite a relatively poor December.

I have limited my bets to EW selections only at odds of over 9/1, these show a substantial profit over the last 3 months whilst win selections show a loss.

I suppose the only issue I have is that often the prices are not available, this is exacerbated by the fact that I have restrictions with several bookies on BOGOF etc. If I cannot obtain the price then I do not bet. As always with betting, self discipline is crucial.

I have made a profit of £900 from an investment of £1,500 which is fantastic.

The biggest win was £600 on Mine Now on the 28th.

Keep up the good work !

 

 

 

 

[BillyHills]

Thanks for that @MCLARKE
Poor spell at the moment which i put down to so many meetings being lost to the weather and those being run are on awful ground which is not good for form students.

Anyway we try our best and provide a tip for every race come rain or shine and overall the profits speak for themselves.

Heres to a profitable 2018

[Sir Puntalot]

11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

First post on here but must congratulate you on your excellent tips.

I was actually looking for a decent forum to use but was intrigued by the claims of 16 winning months.

I must admit I was initially sceptical, especially after analysing the 1st 3 weeks which showed a loss of over £2,000 on paper. However in the 2 months since then the tips have shown a profit of £2,500 on paper despite a relatively poor December.

I have limited my bets to EW selections only at odds of over 9/1, these show a substantial profit over the last 3 months whilst win selections show a loss.

I suppose the only issue I have is that often the prices are not available, this is exacerbated by the fact that I have restrictions with several bookies on BOGOF etc. If I cannot obtain the price then I do not bet. As always with betting, self discipline is crucial.

I have made a profit of £900 from an investment of £1,500 which is fantastic.

The biggest win was £600 on Mine Now on the 28th.

Keep up the good work !

 

 

 

 

 to PL @MCLARKE   

December/January is always a rough time, but you have to do your best despite that. Glad you've utilised the tips to your advantage and a nice wad of cash.  

[Birchy]

I've been backing the PL tips 'top rated' selections religiously for a while now. I back them on the Betfair exchange, requesting the 'best odds' displayed on the tips page (plus 5% for commission) and get matched on about 90% of these bets. The other 10% are settled at BSP which is often significantly better than ISP.  I started a previous thread about prices and value betting, the outcome of which was that the prices aren't too critical. However, my results so far seem to disagree:

P&L: -308.08
Risk: 1430.00
Bet Count: 671
ROI: -21.54%
Win Rate: 0.23
Recent: L.L.L.L.L.W.L.L.L.L

Am I taking poor prices or did I have the misfortune to join at the beginning of a massive downswing?

Edited January 8, 2018 by Birchy

[BillyHills]

I thinks its pretty obvious that you are unlucky, worst run in 18 months.
I could go on with several excuses but that doesn't wash with punters, hopefully it will bounce back very soon or i will get the sack like Sparky!!

[Sir Puntalot]

@Birchy @BillyHills I don't think "excuses" comes into it. December and January are notoriously poor months racing with a ton of meetings called off every year. Regardless of the poor run, taking into account all the results including accumulators and NAPS for December. It showed only a £151 loss to £20 stakes in a horrendous month.  

Not sure why NAPS aren't included in the figures posted above, but they should be, as they're included in our singles record.  

[BillyHills]

At the end of the day every Tipster/System/Method, call it what you like has a bad spell now and again and you just hope that you have made enough profit to see out the lean times.

 I'm happy to say we are still playing with the bookies money

[Birchy]

3 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

@Birchy @BillyHills Not sure why NAPS aren't included in the figures posted above, but they should be, as they're included in our singles record.  

My bad, I basically back every runner tipped as singles, which includes the daily treble selections, the NAPS and the Top Rated. I back them all to win only. The only exception is that I was previously backing the each way tips to win but have since realised they are only +P&L if backed EW, so I am currently disregarding them. Can someone please confirm that the EW tips are losing if backed to win only?

I'm wondering if I should be increasing my stake for the NAPS?

Regarding prices, I've been beating BOG most of the time and at often match it on the other bets, with occasional (odds on) selections being slightly shorter.

[MCLARKE]

Over the last 4 months you would have made a good profit backing the each way selections as win only when the odds are 10/1 or above.

From 530 bets the ROI is 18% which is very impressive.

However the profit is slightly higher if you backed them each way.

 

[Sir Puntalot]

On 11/21/2017 at 2:11 PM, 911RCZ said:

I am still puzzled as to the accuracy of the results in regards to accumulators . I looked up results for the 31/10/17

Wait for me fell in the 3 25 chep but the stats show that it was a winner which means looking for possible doubles the stats are not accurate

Also the winning trebles  prices and the amount won do not match

This was an error and it's just the way the data was exporting, but has now been rectified and trebles only show as win/loss as a whole.  

[vikki37]

16 hours ago, Birchy said:

My bad, I basically back every runner tipped as singles, which includes the daily treble selections, the NAPS and the Top Rated. I back them all to win only. The only exception is that I was previously backing the each way tips to win but have since realised they are only +P&L if backed EW, so I am currently disregarding them. Can someone please confirm that the EW tips are losing if backed to win only?

I'm wondering if I should be increasing my stake for the NAPS?

Regarding prices, I've been beating BOG most of the time and at often match it on the other bets, with occasional (odds on) selections being slightly shorter.

Unfortunately, you have started at the wrong time. It is also up to you how to bet and choosing what to bet on. It's also up to you to carry on or stop following so maybe you can stop complaining about the loss and having doubts all the time. (Sorry, not meaning to be rude or anything.)

I can tell you though that I started around September. Up to November, I won around £500 just to £1 stakes and 0.5 each way on some odds. For the ten tracks to follow, I bet £5 or 2.5 each way. I usually bet on that day, few hours before the race so the price does differ a lot though. Hence, the difference in profit with others. From December til now, I sometimes increased my stakes to £2, haha maybe bad idea but anyway, it has been a loss of around £140. However, that still makes me in profit of around £360, thanks to BH/G and PL. I'm sure that we will go up high again. We just can't predict correctly even with the right stats sometimes due to weather conditions affecting the ground etc. It's difficult for anyone and everyone, really. Maybe try another few months and see? Or lower the stakes so your loss might be less during this winter period. Good luck whatever you choose to bet on. Hope all your bets go well. 

[Birchy]

It's certainly tough to feel optimistic at the moment, however the results speak for themselves and I'm hoping we'll see a turnaround before my £500 starting bank is depleted. On the plus side, I am fully aware that it can take a few thousand bets to prove or disprove a betting strategy, so I'm in for the long haul.

Out of interest, does anyone have the P&L stats for the tips at the published prices, ie not including BOG?

[BillyHills]

Quote

Out of interest, does anyone have the P&L stats for the tips at the published prices, ie not including BOG?

Birchy if I didn't know better I might think you had been sent by a rival to ask awkward questions, funny how you have popped up at the one time we had a lean spell.

Anyway you have asked and I and others have tried to answer your queries. I think you should just make a decision whether to trust the selections or not and leave it at that.

Just one final word about BOG, too many people read too much into this, for example we had 6 meetings last Saturday, 42 selections of which we predicted 12 winners, not one of those dozen drifted to take advantage of BOG. Its far more important to take the prices as early as possible.

Best of luck

[Birchy]

3 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Birchy if I didn't know better I might think you had been sent by a rival to ask awkward questions, funny how you have popped up at the one time we had a lean spell.

Anyway you have asked and I and others have tried to answer your queries. I think you should just make a decision whether to trust the selections or not and leave it at that.

Just one final word about BOG, too many people read too much into this, for example we had 6 meetings last Saturday, 42 selections of which we predicted 12 winners, not one of those dozen drifted to take advantage of BOG. Its far more important to take the prices as early as possible.

Best of luck

I've been a gambler for 25 years, the last 10 years of which have been automated via the betfair exchange. So I have a vast experience of betting strategies and am not one to invest my hard-earned into something I don't fully understand. I treat "gambling" as a calculated investment, so like to dissect as much information as I can possibly get. That's why I am asking "awkward" questions. At the end of the day, you have nothing to hide?

It does indeed seem that I discovered this website at the worst possible time. As you say, it is my own responsibility to decide whether or not to follow the tips, as it is for all of us. As stated previously, I'm in for the long haul as I DO trust the feedback on this website.

I am simply trying to establish whether or not I'm getting my bets on at the right prices, as they ARE critical to the success or failure of any betting strategy. For instance, if I said I had a strategy with a 50% strike rate and £1000 profit after 500 bets, you might think it impressive. But if the average price is less than evens, then it's clearly not going to be profitable long term. That profit is obviously the result of a lucky streak. It might take 600 bets, it might take 5000 bets, but at some point that strategy WILL become negative P&L. I know you already understand this. The fact that the PL tips have shown a profit over 10's of thousands bets speaks for itself. I just need to make sure I am getting on at the right prices as we already know they are not profitable at SP or BSP.

Judging by your comments, I assume the P&L for published prices is unavailable? As I am using the published prices for my bets, this information is important as I could easily be betting with a negative expectation.

Edited January 10, 2018 by Birchy

[The Dingo]

I apologise to everyone for starting to back in December. Since then results have been less than brilliant. Months back I started to back but stopped after a 60 point downturn. Life wasn't meant to be easy but it wasn't meant to be this hard !!

In future I'll try putting extra on NAP and couple treble picks in doubles as well as limiting other bets to top 33 tracks that beat the averages of strike rate, ROI and PPB.

Any thoughts ?

Also, has anyone looked at EW picks and whether they would be more profitable backing win only ?

I've tried to paste summary of results by track up to end of December but not sure if it will work.

Course	Bets	Wins	S/R	STAKED	P&L	ROI	PPB
Aintree	71	18	25.35%	1420	-78.30	-5.51%	-1.10
Ascot	224	73	32.59%	4480	1588.05	35.45%	7.09
Ayr	284	64	22.54%	5680	-888.20	-15.64%	-3.13
Ballinrobe	81	18	22.22%	1620	-281.70	-17.39%	-3.48
Bangor	136	46	33.82%	2720	463.09	17.03%	3.41
Bath	189	52	27.51%	3780	-136.70	-3.62%	-0.72
Bellewstown	52	11	21.15%	1040	-447.50	-43.03%	-8.61
Beverley	181	48	26.52%	3620	393.75	10.88%	2.18
Brighton	210	54	25.71%	4200	172.30	4.10%	0.82
Carlisle	227	76	33.48%	4540	1445.36	31.84%	6.37
Cartmel	71	19	26.76%	1420	84.10	5.92%	1.18
Catterick	242	85	35.12%	4840	1540.10	31.82%	6.36
Chelmsford	570	170	29.82%	11400	1484.06	13.02%	2.60
Cheltenham	152	46	30.26%	3040	426.30	14.02%	2.80
Chepstow	288	83	28.82%	5760	-87.00	-1.51%	-0.30
Chester	124	46	37.10%	2480	1391.10	56.09%	11.22
Clonmel	108	34	31.48%	2160	229.00	10.60%	2.12
Cork	163	46	28.22%	3260	47.40	1.45%	0.29
Curragh	191	62	32.46%	3820	639.71	16.75%	3.35
Doncaster	329	91	27.66%	6580	426.13	6.48%	1.30
Down Royal	111	30	27.03%	2220	-25.90	-1.17%	-0.23
Downpatrick	93	27	29.03%	1860	538.60	28.96%	5.79
Dundalk	434	112	25.81%	8680	-30.00	-0.35%	-0.07
Epsom	92	14	15.22%	1840	-687.10	-37.34%	-7.47
Exeter	145	41	28.28%	2900	-391.12	-13.49%	-2.70
Fairyhouse	193	51	26.42%	3860	-337.00	-8.73%	-1.75
Fakenham	88	23	26.14%	1760	147.70	8.39%	1.68
Ffos Las	184	51	27.72%	3680	665.10	18.07%	3.61
Fontwell	195	51	26.15%	3900	-399.14	-10.23%	-2.05
Galway	119	40	33.61%	2380	76.70	3.22%	0.64
Goodwood	157	49	31.21%	3140	619.70	19.74%	3.95
Gowran Park	153	51	33.33%	3060	956.20	31.25%	6.25
Hamilton	149	37	24.83%	2980	1.00	0.03%	0.01
Haydock	272	78	28.68%	5440	383.72	7.05%	1.41
Hereford	77	19	24.68%	1540	-184.20	-11.96%	-2.39
Hexham	133	44	33.08%	2660	384.50	14.45%	2.89
Huntingdon	141	45	31.91%	2820	-4.40	-0.16%	-0.03
Kelso	117	35	29.91%	2340	568.20	24.28%	4.86
Kempton	738	213	28.86%	14760	1378.44	9.34%	1.87
Kilbeggan	73	19	26.03%	1460	45.20	3.10%	0.62
Killarney	106	36	33.96%	2120	802.60	37.86%	7.57
Laytown	12	3	25.00%	240	112.00	46.67%	9.33
Leicester	259	84	32.43%	5180	384.20	7.42%	1.48
Leopardstown	221	58	26.24%	4420	698.20	15.80%	3.16
Limerick	184	56	30.43%	3680	371.77	10.10%	2.02
Lingfield	720	192	26.67%	14400	-542.26	-3.77%	-0.75
Listowel	114	26	22.81%	2280	-497.50	-21.82%	-4.36
Ludlow	149	46	30.87%	2980	285.44	9.58%	1.92
Market Rasen	188	60	31.91%	3760	166.50	4.43%	0.89
Musselburgh	250	83	33.20%	5000	1333.80	26.68%	5.34
Naas	160	51	31.88%	3200	11.80	0.37%	0.07
Navan	178	48	26.97%	3560	-114.99	-3.23%	-0.65
Newbury	265	78	29.43%	5300	173.30	3.27%	0.65
Newcastle	661	180	27.23%	13220	712.11	5.39%	1.08
Newmarket	366	114	31.15%	7320	1107.60	15.13%	3.03
Newton Abbot	150	47	31.33%	3000	170.73	5.69%	1.14
Nottingham	205	40	19.51%	4100	-722.40	-17.62%	-3.52
Perth	131	37	28.24%	2620	214.50	8.19%	1.64
Plumpton	135	38	28.15%	2700	-215.00	-7.96%	-1.59
Pontefract	143	34	23.78%	2860	-327.63	-11.46%	-2.29
Punchestown	164	46	28.05%	3280	472.80	14.41%	2.88
Redcar	188	61	32.45%	3760	1418.10	37.72%	7.54
Ripon	143	44	30.77%	2860	605.83	21.18%	4.24
Roscommon	83	21	25.30%	1660	-321.00	-19.34%	-3.87
Salisbury	162	47	29.01%	3240	651.95	20.12%	4.02
Sandown	209	54	25.84%	4180	77.40	1.85%	0.37
Sedgefield	174	43	24.71%	3480	-496.90	-14.28%	-2.86
Sligo	52	19	36.54%	1040	202.10	19.43%	3.89
Southwell	451	133	29.49%	9020	686.64	7.61%	1.52
Stratford	160	39	24.38%	3200	-717.70	-22.43%	-4.49
Taunton	122	50	40.98%	2440	1090.40	44.69%	8.94
Thirsk	157	52	33.12%	3140	1076.50	34.28%	6.86
Thurles	111	34	30.63%	2220	75.50	3.40%	0.68
Tipperary	118	35	29.66%	2360	-284.55	-12.06%	-2.41
Towcester	89	23	25.84%	1780	71.80	4.03%	0.81
Tramore	109	28	25.69%	2180	312.80	14.35%	2.87
Uttoxeter	206	55	26.70%	4120	-245.80	-5.97%	-1.19
Warwick	148	40	27.03%	2960	-806.80	-27.26%	-5.45
Wetherby	177	55	31.07%	3540	216.98	6.13%	1.23
Wexford	92	25	27.17%	1840	-370.50	-20.14%	-4.03
Wincanton	122	43	35.25%	2440	549.24	22.51%	4.50
Windsor	229	69	30.13%	4580	679.90	14.84%	2.97
Wolverhampton	759	193	25.43%	15180	467.28	3.08%	0.62
Worcester	198	52	26.26%	3960	-181.60	-4.59%	-0.92
Yarmouth	222	69	31.08%	4440	614.80	13.85%	2.77
York	158	36	22.78%	3160	138.80	4.39%	0.88
	16957	4849	28.60%	339140	22225.99	6.55%	1.31

[BillyHills]

Hi mate, thanks for the course stats.

I did a test a while back on EW bets and it was certainly better to back them EW rather than win only. 

Interesting that December was the worst month overall so far the best yet for Naps and Trebles, just doesn't make any sense.
I personally think the AW has performed well below par since the turf season finished, we are now getting all sorts of unproven horses trying out the surface as they have no alternative at the moment. During the turf season we only get AW specialists running at places like Chelmsford/Lingfield and Kempton. I think its wise to pick and choose tracks as I do in my 'Top 10 Tracks thread'

Good luck

[evertorial]

Hi all this looks fantastic but is a lot of information to get through. So just out of interest what conclusions have been made as the most profitable and practical way of following these tips. 

  While it seems good hypothetically to follow all tips it wouldn't be practical for most followers.

  From what I can see it could be considered profitable to bet doubles on the selected treble bets for each day. Would this be correct?

I think I also read that betting on all selections over 4/1 creates the best profit long term and anything over 8/1 backed as each way? Can this be confirmed.

 

Many thanks 

 

Ps great results since you started by the way, possibly the best around

Edited January 12, 2018 by evertorial

[BillyHills]

Do not back odds on shots, I have been let down so many time recently its unbelievable how these horses could have started at such short prices.

Do not back in Maidens, Novices, Sellers, Claimers or 2yo races!!

Seriously, the figures published are for backing every selection £20 win and £10 EW if 8/1 or over. Its really up to the individual on how to get the most out of these selections. Personally I tend to follow the tips at the best performing tracks and any handicap on turf.

Backing the trebles as doubles has provided a few winning bets but I couldn't say if its profitable long term.

Good luck and welcome to the forum

[Saint R]

3 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Do not back odds on shots, I have been let down so many time recently its unbelievable how these horses could have started at such short prices.

Do not back in Maidens, Novices, Sellers, Claimers or 2yo races!!

Seriously, the figures published are for backing every selection £20 win and £10 EW if 8/1 or over. Its really up to the individual on how to get the most out of these selections. Personally I tend to follow the tips at the best performing tracks and any handicap on turf.

Backing the trebles as doubles has provided a few winning bets but I couldn't say if its profitable long term.

Good luck and welcome to the forum

More or less this myself,even started leaving out some of the night all weather meetings too.Will back each way 6/1 and above as I get my stake back a few more times.

[evertorial]

4 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Do not back odds on shots, I have been let down so many time recently its unbelievable how these horses could have started at such short prices.

Do not back in Maidens, Novices, Sellers, Claimers or 2yo races!!

Seriously, the figures published are for backing every selection £20 win and £10 EW if 8/1 or over. Its really up to the individual on how to get the most out of these selections. Personally I tend to follow the tips at the best performing tracks and any handicap on turf.

Backing the trebles as doubles has provided a few winning bets but I couldn't say if its profitable long term.

Good luck and welcome to the forum

Hi Billy, 

I'm quite new to horse racing. Could you please advise what the best performing tracks are and which are handicaps on turf?

 

Cheers 

[BillyHills]

The Dingo has put a lot of effort into his table just further up the page which points out the most profitable courses. 

I have a thread which just backs the Tips on my top 10 recommended tracks

 

The 'handicaps on turf' just means any handicap race over the jumps which are all run on the turf as opposed to some flat races which are run on an artificial surface.

For example on tomorrows Kempton card which is over jumps I would only bet in the 1.30, 2.40, 3.15 and 3.45

 

[evertorial]

Hi bubbles I have a request. Can you please work out the roi of all bets since the start that are above evens but less than 4/1.

 

I think it's been suggested that odds on tips tend to be not too profitable. However it would be interesting to see what these particular tips yield. Thanks 

[Bubbles180]

All odds on tips show a loss of -£1065.50

Evs to under 4/1 is loss of -£3237.40

 

[Bubbles180]

The most profit is still from 4/1 to 25/1 which is +£26,954

Backing win & ew as advised

[evertorial]

That's great stuff.

Just to trying to disect a but further.... What about if we were backing between 4/1 and 6/1 tips do these make a profit long term? Many thanks 

 

And also I couldn't work out for sure what you got from the daily trebles. If these are backed as 3x doubles will that make a profit long term? 

Edited January 13, 2018 by evertorial

[BillyHills]

7 minutes ago, evertorial said:

That's great stuff.

Just to trying to disect a but further.... What about if we were backing between 4/1 and 6/1 tips do these make a profit long term? Many thanks 

 

And also I couldn't work out for sure what you got from the daily trebles. If these are backed as 3x doubles will that make a profit long term? 

No idea mate on either question...........

What do you want, it all laid out on a plate, you have to put the groundwork in yourself sometimes

(try searching the other threads with 'PL Tips')

[Bubbles180]

Billy is right need to start working some of this out for yourself, we are here to help but if you want to find your own angles, use the forum, blogs and spreadsheet everything is their for you (if you know how tp do it)

OK 4/1 to 6/1 only at advised prices would be +£9037.90

[Bubbles180]

Look further back through this post for most of the stats you are asking for otherwise use the spreadsheet on the main page it has all the results for you

[Birchy]

2 hours ago, Bubbles180 said:

OK 4/1 to 6/1 only at advised prices would be +£9037.90

First of all, you're doing brilliant work. Keep it up! 

Are the "advised" prices the ones in the results spreadsheet or the ones advised when the tips are first published?

Edited January 13, 2018 by Birchy