StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Oct 14th - 16th

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It's international break before the next round of Premier League games but here are the odds and ratings for you to peruse until then. Liverpool versus Manchester United is the big one this round. Let's get the chat going early. Keen to also hear from those of you that are fans of clubs in the Premier League. How do you feel your season has started? I think @Mindfulness is the only person we don't need to guess how they are feeling!

@sajtion, @discipline, @Pipoca, @the bastardian, @Mindfulness, @Sir Puntalot, @AndreBR, @mrclubbie, @neilovan, @allyhibs, @Judeksi, @Tiffy, @KikoCy, @Bett, @zemo91, @sm0kez, @Bronxie, @Duuc, @Dylan Lynch, @betcatalog, @vasilli07, @omch@, @the real slim shady, @Arkadi Manucharov, @Snoopdog, @allthethings, @JKos, @Pep004, @Torque, @AK1979, @Charon84, @dylanphan, @Kenton Schweppes, @dorleywilliams, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @KingSoccertips, @seifer365, and @WinningAdvice.

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Personally I have a soft spot for Newcastle since I've lived and studied there a couple of years. They've seemed to be playing better lately and I would love for them if they could get a shot at advancing at the Europa League for starters.The fan base is passionate as it gets and they deserve to have a good team over there though I'm not quite sure how the spending/investments have been going there recently...I'm mean they were just promoted to the Premier League,

Now to the picks.This past weekend my system plays were quite spot on though I needed luck for the West Ham win (at the buzzer) and on the other hand I lost the Stoke-Southampton draw for 5 minutes.

Here are my system  picks

Burnley SU 1 @2.40

Chelsea -1,5 @2.09

Huddersfield SU 2 @3.80

Watford 1X @2.30

Brighton SU 1 @3.20

Newcastle X2 @ 2.05

West Brom X2 @ 1.85

and my gut play

Manchester United 2 (DNB) @2.00

 

Best of luck to all

 

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3 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Keen to also hear from those of you that are fans of clubs in the Premier League. How do you feel your season has started? I think @Mindfulness is the only person we don't need to guess how they are feeling!

Crystal Palace F.C. 2017/2018:

 

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19 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

@jamiedavies02

I am a dunce when it comes to stats, is it possible to explain what the various categories are in your table?

STR - Shots on target ratio

STFa - Shots on target for average

STAa - Shots on target against average

Save - % of shots on target against which are saved (0.70 is average, higher = over performance & lower = under performance)

Goal - % of shots on target for which are goals (0.30 is average, higher = over performance & lower = under performance)

PDO - Save + Save (1.00 is average, higher = over performance & lower = under performance)

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jamiedavies02 did you compile those stats or are they available somewhere?

Pretty interesting indeed and quite possibly a simple underdogs system can be created out of it.

If underdog in Top 10 and favourite in Bottom 10 play double chance or underdog win should be the play

 

 

Edited by JKos

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15 hours ago, JKos said:

jamiedavies02 did you compile those stats or are they available somewhere?

Pretty interesting indeed and quite possibly a simple underdogs system can be created out of it.

If underdog in Top 10 and favourite in Bottom 10 play double chance or underdog win should be the play

 

 

I compiled them myself, the data is used is freely available and there's plenty of similar stuff out there.

Since the start of the season I've tried to move away from a systematic approach and be more flexible, I work best when I get more of a feel for match rather than sticking rigidly to criteria. Don't get me wrong in my head I have things that I'm looking for but nothing set in stone, it's about taking everything into account and then making a decision, seems to be working a lot better for me so far.

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Man U to roll over Liverpool

Burnley to draw at West Ham

Crystal Palace to implode further at Chelsea

Man City to beat Stoke who noticeably put up a good fight

Swansea & Huddersfield no score draw

Spurs to tear Bournemouth a new one

Brighton to draw with Everton

The Toon to beat Southampton

WBA to beat Leicester

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few interesting games to get involved. first of all

everyone knows liverpool can't defend effectively and mane is now injured so man utd can definitely win this game provided lukaku is fit to play

chelsea should be beating crystal palace but i am little wary since roy has had two weeks to prepare during international break while chelsea had a couple of players on international duty. 

watford have played some good football and i feel they could score against arsenal

 

these three games are probably the ones i will bet on and the rest don't interest me that much

 

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On 10/2/2017 at 10:47 AM, StevieDay1983 said:

Keen to also hear from those of you that are fans of clubs in the Premier League. How do you feel your season has started?

Not too bad of a start for Chelsea but not too good. All expected after mediocre transfer window. Instead of showing everyone who the champions are (and make that two times in three seasons) and further improving in quest for another title, board decided to cave in and try to search for bargains, weakening team in process.

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Anyway, this weekend...Man U to beat Liverpool, even double chance at x2 pays 1.45 which is more than generous. Burnley to nick at least a draw against WHU. And Chelsea to beat Palace, those are my top three picks. Elsewhere, I'll be wary of City and Tottenham this week as Stoke can surprise, and Spurs are not playing very good at home this season, so possible 0-0 draw on the cards against Bournemouth. All other games are mystery to me, so I will be skipping them this weekend.

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Watford v Arsenal   Sat 2017-10-14


For me the jury is still out on Arsenal, especially on the road. Played 3 won 0, no goals scored. More damning is that they have not won a 1/2 (1st or 2nd) away from home, in any league game played this season. 

They just came off two relatively easy home wins (against Brighton and WBA). Brighton showed nothing offensively, and WBA on the road, under Pulis never play ! These are games that everyone expected Arsenal to win, so how much confidence do these wins add ? Probably not much. 

Travel wise, it is an easy weekend for Arsenal (almost a North London derby), but they are yet to show any form on the road. This is a team that has lost 6 of their last 10 away league games. They have managed to score just 3 first half away goals in 10 away games. So scoring, on the road is a problem ! 

Watford are somewhat of an enigma this season. They have also been poor in front of goal in recent home games. They have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home games (opponents have been tough, and against Brighton had a man sent off). 

Arsenal beat the poorish teams relatively easily. But somehow, they don't have the right balance/tactics/formation against decent teams that will sit in and defend. This could be a potentially frustrating afternoon for Arsenal.

Can Arsenal win this game ? I am not convinced. Watford got hammered by Man City, but they should be competitive here. Arsenal are miles away from Man City at the moment. It should be a more realistic challenge for Watford, and they could cause a shock here ! 

Another factor in this game is Chile's failure to get to the word cup. Sanchez will not be mentally ready for this game. It is a massive disappointment that could take a few weeks to get over. He probably won't start as his head is not in the right place at the moment.


Home Double Chance - Odds 2.25  

 

Edited by neilovan

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Long time no see fellas.

Haven't really been putting money on any games, just predicting and I have been doing pretty decently.

Not a lot of time for me to do a write up but I like the odds on:

United win @ 2.7

Burnley win @ 2.7

Swansea win @ 2.15 (or U2.5 @ 1.55)

Chelsea win @ 1.40

 

A four-fold of these is 21.94.

 

BOL

 

@neilovan nice to see another South African here.

I think there's plenty of value in Watford +1/double chance at that price.

Marco Silva does exceptionally well at home and Watford have a reasonably solid team. 

I think the U2.5 is fantastic value @ 2.5

Could very well end 1-0/1-1/0-0

Edited by KikoCy
response to neil

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apparently morata is injured and ngolo kante won't play either for chelsea. zaha will supposedly come back into crystal palace squad. could this be the game crystal palace cause and upset, busts everyone's coupons and get win? the only thing is hodgson is not tactician in my eyes and conte is ten levels above him. it will be interesting but i am staying away from this match

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8 hours ago, EviL ZippY said:

BTTS in the Man U v Liverpool game for me

’pool will concede, and they’re talented enough going forward that I fully expect them to bag as well :)

This for me too pretty strong.

Pool always attacking at Anfield and averaging 2gpg including of course 4 vs Arsenal.  And while you may think that 4 is skewing the average, they had 35 attempts vs Burnley and 21 vs Crystal Palace, could have easily scored 2-3 more in either contest.

United is without Fellaini and Carrick, so they will probably opt to play Blind in the defensive mf role.  And while Blind is very good, he is very different player.  I have to think United will also feature Herrera and Mata with Pogba out, with Herrera and Blind tasked with running all over the pitch, while Mata will lead the attack.  Game may not be wild open, but with the firepower that both sides have in the likes of Rashford, MArtial, Lukaku, Firmino, Countinho, Sturridge, I mean it's just hard not to see plenty of chances.  

I'll probably play 1h over too depending on lineups and I think if we can get 1 before 20', we can easily see 3-4 in this game.

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Southampton v Newcastle

Sun 2017-10-15

This is a match up between two teams that can't score 1st half goals. Saints have failed to score a 1st half goal in 8 of their last 10 home games (league). Newcastle have had 7 nil-nil 1st half away games in their last 8. They have not scored a 1st half goal in 9 of their last 10 away games.

It just feels like a low scoring, dull affair. Newcastle have been highest scoring (2nd) in their last 6 away games. It seems like their strategy is to play it tight for the 1st 45 minutes.

Southampton are better than their league position suggests. They played reasonably well against Man United, but lack a cutting edge upfront. For 25 minutes in the second half, they could have scored.  They miss that front man goalscorer, who will get 15 to 20 goals this season. Shane Long might run hard, but he does not score enough goals !

A few bets looks decent here.

Half time NIL-NIL (odds 2.75)
Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.85)
NO to both to score (1.95)

I just cannot see a goal bonanza here ! Newcastle just will not have enough of the ball, and Saints are a poorish in front of goal.

 

NO BTTS - Odds 1.95  

Edited by neilovan

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16 hours ago, dylanphan said:

This for me too pretty strong.

Pool always attacking at Anfield and averaging 2gpg including of course 4 vs Arsenal.  And while you may think that 4 is skewing the average, they had 35 attempts vs Burnley and 21 vs Crystal Palace, could have easily scored 2-3 more in either contest.

United is without Fellaini and Carrick, so they will probably opt to play Blind in the defensive mf role.  And while Blind is very good, he is very different player.  I have to think United will also feature Herrera and Mata with Pogba out, with Herrera and Blind tasked with running all over the pitch, while Mata will lead the attack.  Game may not be wild open, but with the firepower that both sides have in the likes of Rashford, MArtial, Lukaku, Firmino, Countinho, Sturridge, I mean it's just hard not to see plenty of chances.  

I'll probably play 1h over too depending on lineups and I think if we can get 1 before 20', we can easily see 3-4 in this game.

I don't think they will play Blind ahead of Herrera in the same role. Herrera is perfect to mark Coutinho out of the game.   

              De Gea,

Valencia, Bailly, Jones, Young

          Matic   Herrera

 Mata, Rashford, Mkhitaryan

                Lukaku 

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BRIGHTON V EVERTON

Having watched Brighton's first 3 home matches, I can honestly say I am impressed with the way they have been playing. CH has them well organised, excellent defensively and quick on the counter attack. It is only a lack of decent firepower that has let us down so far.

Our only loss at home has been to Man City, and the 2-0 score line seems a standout result, especially when you consider it took them 70 mins to score, and then we scored their second goal.

We then beat WBA 3-1, in a comprehensive victory, and Newcastle 1-0, in a tight game.

i'll be expecting another tight game on Sunday against Everton. The match has been sold out for weeks, and the fans are expecting something from the game., a point at least, although with confidence high, 3 doesn't seem unrealistic at the moment.

Brighton have to beat the teams around them, and all That separates them from Everton is goal difference. They both have the same  P7 W2 D1 L4 record. 

I'd be confident in backing Brighton to get at least a draw. Shane Duffy got MOM. for ROI against Wales & pundits are calling for Dunk to be called into the England squad. Murray should be fit & raring, and I think he gave us an extra threat when he came on against Arsenal. Brown should be fit & ready too. I think it will be tight and low on goals.

BRIGHTON DNB - 2.2

UNder 5 1st half corners 2.0 (landed in the Newcastle game)

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Liverpool v Man Utd

Skybet go 4/5 that there are Under 11 Corners Taken in this match - bet365 are 4/6 for the same line.

Over the course of the last year, there have been 10 or less corners in 66% of Liverpool's league matches, this rises to 70% for their home league matches. Man Utd on the other hand have seen 10 or less corners in 50% of their matches over the same period, 58% of the time for just their away matches.

Looking at their H2H in league matches at Anfield since 2010/11, Under 10.5 corners has gone 6 from 7, in all league matches in the same period Under 10.5 corners is 12 from 14

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