How good is your rating system?

[muppet77]

Hi. I haven't posted here in a while and it's changed so much since. Wow! 

 

I'm really struggling to find historic (old) spread prices for the EPL from spread companies like Sporting Index. If you have any please let me know. It's not the fixed odds HDA I'm after but the supremacy price - by how much a team will beat another or goal difference  

e.g. Man City v Liverpool may be +0.6 to +0.8 meaning MC are predicted to win by about 0.7 of a goal on average   

I'd like to back test my new model and wondered if anyone makes EPL predictions each week? 

If you do id be keen to know what your average absolute error is. 

So for each prediction work out the absolute error:

predict +0.5, final result H won by 2, so error is abs(0.5-2). 

and average for all games for this season and maybe previous. 

Anyone know anyone who does match by match differences? Even if you do forecasted scores for each team you can obviously work out the difference. 

Thanks. 

Edited September 16, 2017 by muppet77

[Sir Puntalot]

5 hours ago, muppet77 said:

Hi. I haven't posted here in a while and it's changed so much since. Wow! 

 

I'm really struggling to find historic (old) spread prices for the EPL from spread companies like Sporting Index. If you have any please let me know. It's not the fixed odds HDA I'm after but the supremacy price - by how much a team will beat another or goal difference  

e.g. Man City v Liverpool may be +0.6 to +0.8 meaning MC are predicted to win by about 0.7 of a goal on average   

I'd like to back test my new model and wondered if anyone makes EPL predictions each week? 

If you do id be keen to know what your average absolute error is. 

So for each prediction work out the absolute error:

predict +0.5, final result H won by 2, so error is abs(0.5-2). 

and average for all games for this season and maybe previous. 

Anyone know anyone who does match by match differences? Even if you do forecasted scores for each team you can obviously work out the difference. 

Thanks. 

We did send out a search party for you @muppet77 but assumed you were in hiding in an Afghan cave from bookmakers hunting you down.  

[muppet77]

Haha. 

[Matthew]

I'm going to have a crack at this.......give me a few days.