Italian Grand Prix

[BillyHills]

Monza GP

We have had more GP's at Monza than anywhere else in the world, 66 to be precise, two ahead of Monaco.

Mercedes have dominated the last three races and its now 7 years since the home team 'Ferrari' have brought home the bacon. If you look at the stats the front row has provided the winner in 10 of the last 11 races (pole winning 8) and we have not seen a Safety Car since 2011, probably the best record on the calendar. Reliability is good here with an average of 3 retirements per race.

Hamilton's win last week puts him to with touching distance of Vettel and is now the 1/2 favourite with Skybet to regain his title. Vettel is a 7/4 shot and has a 7pt lead.

Sunday's early betting sees Hamilton at 4/7 (Hills) and Vettel 100/30 (Corals), I do think they should be closer but you cant deny the power of the Mercs around here.

Early prices

• Over 15.5 Finishers 8/11 Skybet
• Hamilton Pole Position 8/15 Betfred
• Fastest Lap of race Hamilton 11/10 Skybet
• Safety Car Yes 8/11 No Evens Bet365

 

 

[BillyHills]

Yesterdays qualifying ended up taking all afternoon due to the torrential rain. Lewis Hamilton, who else, showed how to drive in such conditions and will start on pole position. Better weather is predicted today and it's hard to oppose the Brit with the bulk of his main rivals either having grid penalties or poor qualification times.

Hamilton is 2/7 with Skybet while championship leader Sebastian Vettel is a 15/2 shot after a poor day at the office on Saturday, he will start 6th on the updated grid after penalties.

Updated Grid

As you can see the Red Bulls despite qualifying 2nd and 3rd will now start 14th and 17th respectively and this leaves Williams rookie Lance Stroll alongside Hammy on the front row. I really don't think he want to cause any bother and I fully expect the Mercedes to be long gone after the opening lap. Hamilton could easily set the fastest lap with a clear road today. Bottas could be the man to follow him home depending on how fast Vettel and clear his team mate Raikkonen.

The podium betting is a waste of time, Hamilton, Vettel and Bottas are all long odds on and Kimi is around 5/4. Ocon is 8/1 and Stroll 11/1 who although look tempting are really up against it to stay in the top 3.

In the 'Points market' the likes of Verstappen (4/9) , Ricciardo (1/2) and Perez (8/13) look decent bets and very little else appeals to me this week.

Bets:

L.Hamilton Fastest Lap : 5/4 Hills
Safety Car NO: 11/10 Bet365
Over 15.5 Finishers: 11/10 Coral

Longshot:
Perez, Verstappen and Riccardo to finish in the points:

9/4 treble Hills