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  • 2 weeks later...
9 minutes ago, DrO said:

You find something suspicious here Czech?

Well, it's certainly strange that he's playing in a clay Challenger for the first time since what...2010?...and that he's doing so while being signed up for Metz next week, which is indoors. My best guess is that he's going to win one or two rounds and then depart, maybe against Cecchinato let's say. Certainly no value in backing him, the only value there can be is watching his matches and perhaps going against him live in one way or another. I would be very surprised to see him win the entire thing, but who knows?

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You think that is bad. Try what I just experienced in the Challenger tournament in Poland

Alexander Bury (Ranked 1600 in the world, ranked over 100 in doubles, in 30s) v Dustin Brown (105 in the world) on clay and past finalist in this tournament

The handicap is set at 18.5 games

Brown takes 1st set 6-3, he is 5-0 up. Throws 4 straight games with some half effort trick shots. Then has no problem serving it out to cover the over 18.5 games by 0.5 margin

Brown won 6-3 6-4 (was 5-0 up in 2nd set)

Edited by KennyDelight
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@KennyDelight Well, I can at least see some rational explanations for that one (mainly concerning Brown's typical attitude), but yeah, I'm afraid that there aren't many favourites that you could trust on the Challenger circuit in the early rounds. Still waiting on what the TIU finds in the Dolgopolov investigation, that should be interesting and telling. If they do absolutely nothing and say that everything was fine, it will be really really sad - and I'm afraid that I can't emphasize enough how sad that would be for tennis in general. There have been many great tennis stories this year, but this is the most important one for me.

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It's an interesting one. Dolgopolov adamant that he gave best effort, then there's the medical condition that he suffers from. Admittedly I didn't see it, but in all honesty just by looking at his results over the years Dolgolpolov is unbackable for me. Draw your own conclusions from that. ;)

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L.Rosol/R.Haase - Over 3.5 sets at 1.71 with Unibet

These two have already played six fairly tight matches, so I don't see Haase winning 3-0 here, especially on clay. Rosol has had plenty of time to prepare for this and he tends to play well in Davis Cups, so four sets should be on the cards much more often than not.

D.Goffin/J.Millman - Over 3.5 sets at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Goffin hasn't been fit since the French Open and his recent results are quite telling, so I'm not sure why this is priced above evens. Unless Millman chokes big time, he should be able to challenge the home guy.

TennisThread.png

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S.Darcis/N.Kyrgios - Over 33.5 games at 1.85 with Pinnacle

This also looks a touch low to me in all fairness. Neither guy is completely fit and that's obviously a risk, but Kyrgios isn't going to lose this under the line, is he? So it should be all about Darcis - and the home conditions should allow him to get a set or a few tie-breaks imo. He's always tremendous in home DC matches and his slices should frustrate Kyrgios as well.

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