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harry_rag

Outside Chance (Goalscorers and Tryscorers)

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Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona: Doumbia to score at 4/1 with Fred (4.69) and Messi to score at 16/25 with 888 (1.62)

No value on the "multi goal" prices for Messi tonight but the anytime, short as it is, just makes it over the line. Honourable mention for the same firms 11/2 scores both halves which is the closest to a qualifying bet and is ok for an interest.

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3 hours ago, clarky101 said:

Harry,,,,,just spotted this thread, have you thought of goal scorer minutes on spin ?

I think of very little else mate, in my sleeping and waking hours! :loon

The spread prices are the inputs for this system, that I use to derive the minimum required price for a fixed odds bet. I do sometimes spot a decent looking spread bet but this system is focused on supposedly value fixed odds bets based on fairly strict criteria. I have ideas for different ways of applying this (identifying lays or spread bets in the scorer markets or value bets in other markets) but, for now, this pretty much takes up what time I have to spare for devoting to punting.

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Wow, just had a look on Soccerbase and he's scored in 13 of his 14 appearances this season for club & country!

There are definitely those "obvious" goal scorers who, at first glance, appear to be "too short" but who bang in the goals so frequently that they are still profitable to follow. Ronaldo, Messi, Kane and Lukaku are probably in that group currently. If the anytime price is too short for your taste they can still be worth backing for brace, hat trick or both halves.

He may be worth blindly following for a while yet. Hopefully, when he does score it will have qualified as a bet for this thread!

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Sale v Gloucester: Solomona to score a try at 11/10 (1.83), to score 2 or more at 13/2 (5.32) and a hat trick at 28/1 (22.69) all with 365

Glasgow v Treviso: Grigg to score a try at 9/4 (2.69) and to score 2 or more at 12/1 (12.53) both with PP

Leinster v Edinburgh: O'Loughlin to score a try at 8/5 with PP (2.27)

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Newcastle v London Irish: Van der Merwe to score a try at 1.07/1* with Hills (1.76) and to score 2 or more at 5/1 (4.89) and a hat trick at 22/1 (18.9) both with 365

Goneva to score a try at 11/10 (1.99), to score 2 or more at 13/2 (6.45) and a hat trick at 28/1 (27.1) all with 365.

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An early Top 14 game before I update yesterday's results.

Monpellier v Brive: Nadolo to score 2 or more tries at 7/4 (2.07) and to score a hat trick at 6/1 (4.47) both with 365

Shorter but still backable at PP prices (13/8 and 11/2). Anytime price is value too but I'm not backing at less than 1/2.

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