Outside Chance (Goalscorers and Tryscorers)

[harry_rag]

A Madrid v Sevilla: Griezmann to score at 13/10 with 888 (2.26)

[harry_rag]

Bath v Newcastle: Van der Merwe to score a try at 5/2 (3.4) and Harris to score a try at 15/2 (7.68)

Harlequins v Leicester: Marchant to score a try at 4/1 (4.43)

All with PP/BF.

[harry_rag]

Clermont v Racing 92: Raka to score a try at 8/11 with PP (1.65)

Missed 10/11 and 7/2 for the brace. Anytime still backable but 2 or more a swerve now at 11/4.

[harry_rag]

Scarlets v Edinburgh: McNicholl to score a try at 21/20 with 365 (2.04)

Only just makes the cut in terms of price but is odds on across the board elsewhere.

A couple of potential picks in the game at Connacht, pending full prices to go at. Other than that, I'm probably done for the day.

[harry_rag]

Last action of the day for me.

Girona v Barcelona: Stuani to score at 6/1 with Marathonbet (5.06) and Messi to score 2 or more at 23/10 with PP (3.1)

Bit of a gamble on team news as I'm busy later but both should start. I'm also on Messi hat trick at 15/2 and score both halves at 9/2 but they aren't official selections. I can't check at the moment but suspect they'll just fall outside the criteria for this thread.

[harry_rag]

A profitable day yesterday if I'm not mistaken, confirmation to follow. A bit of early action in France to get today underway.

Lyon v Castres: Palisson to score at 9/5 (2.69) and Regard to score at 16/5 (4.11) both with PP/BF

[harry_rag]

4 winners (Griezmann, Van der Merwe, Harris and Raka) and a non-runner (Stuani) yesterday. Total prior to today's selections,

74 winners from 189 bets (39.15%), +60.03 points with an ROI of 32.1%

[harry_rag]

Sheffield W v Sheffield U: Clarke to score at 7/2 with PP (4.37)

[harry_rag]

Hannover v Koln: Cordoba to score at 16/5 with 888 (3.86)

[harry_rag]

London Irish v Northampton: Horne to score a try at 13/5 with PP (3.22)

[harry_rag]

Exeter v Wasps: Slade to score a try at 17/4* with Lads (4.82), Daly to score a try at 9/2 with Skybet (5.3), Simmonds to score a try at 9/4 (2.5), 2 or more at 18/1 (10.67) and a hat trick at 125/1 (65.43)

*Slade fine at the "unboosted" 4/1.

[harry_rag]

Getafe v Villareal: Molina to score at 13/5 with Sportingbet (3.31)

That may well be it for the afternoon.

[harry_rag]

4 winners today, Palisson, Clarke, Horne and Molina.

78 winners from 198 bets (39.39%), +63.53 points with an ROI of 32.09%

[jtw1]

On a nice roll Harry ..keep it going .

[harry_rag]

Cheers. Been doing this long enough to be healthily sceptical about whether a 30% ROI is sustainable over the long term but nice to be in this position in the first place. Been doing a bit of analysis ahead of potentially making a few tweaks for the start of a new month.

By sport, Rugby Union has accounted for 96 of the 198 bets (48.48%) and has contributed 70.51% of the profit (44.8 points) with an ROI of 46.67%.

Next up is soccer with 69 bets (34.85%) and 26.86% of the profit (17.06 points) with an ROI of 24.73%.

That leaves Rugby League with 33 bets (16.67%) and 2.64% of the profit (1.68 points) with an ROI of 5.08%.

There were 55 bets in August and the first month finished with a profit of 5.08 points and an ROI of 9.24%

That means there have been 143 bets in September so far, showing a profit of 58.45 points and an ROI of 40.87%.

It's fair to say I'm slightly surprised at how much the volume has ramped up this month but I guess this has gradually become the main focus of my betting time with less time devoted to other markets.

I've got 3 tweaks in mind for October, which I'll probably end up going with 2 of. Details to follow.

[harry_rag]

The first change from next month onwards is that the selections will include NFL Touchdown scorers. 

It had struck me that there was no reason why the approach wouldn't work for that sport, I've given it a brief trial run and it's gone ok. I might as well include the selections in here and see how it develops.

The games tend to fall when there's no footy or rugby to be looking at and it will probably only be possible to do the live TV games so I'll probably just be looking at 4 or 5 games per week.

SPIN only seem to price up 4 players per team (SX a few more) so there will only be 8 players per game to consider. All in all, it's not too much extra time or effort so it's been a fairly easy decision to make.

[vikki37]

Great results as usual. Hope your new tweaks go well too. 

[harry_rag]

The second change relates to the criteria for which players I consider in the first place. Currently, the strict rule is that I only look at players who have been named as "hotshots" by the spread firms. The advantage of this is that it cuts the field down to a manageable size and should be focused on the most likely goalscorers. The disadvantage is that I sometime have to overlook players with a decent chance of scoring who may be available at an attractive price.

The obvious answer is to consider players named as hotshots and any with a goal/try minutes quote of "x" or more. "X" being a value that strikes a balance between not looking at too many additional players but not ignoring those with decent prospects of scoring. I've got a number in mind but will review it as the remainder of September unfolds and make a decision in time for the start of October.

[harry_rag]

A couple of bets (still "unofficial" for now) posted in the NFL thread, if of interest to anyone.

[harry_rag]

Union Berlin v Kaiserslautern: Polter to score at 15/8 (2.62) and Hedlund to score at 11/4 (3.65), both with 365

A little surprised to be putting bets up on this game with only one firm (if you discount "Sun bets") offering prices but, with a bit of help from late drifts from 7/4 and 5/2, these 2 tick all the boxes.

[harry_rag]

Goal for Polter (a hat trick in fact) so 1 out of 2 for a small profit.

79 winners from 200 bets (39.5%), +64.41 points with an ROI of 32.2%

8 Champions League games tomorrow so it could be a busy hour in the run up to kick off! 

[harry_rag]

Besiktas v RB Leipzig: Talisca to score at 4/1 with 888 (4.69)

[harry_rag]

Napoli v Feyenoord: Mertens to score at 4/7 (1.43) and to score 2 or more at 11/4 (2.96) both with Fred, Boetius to score at 8/1 with 888 (7.65)

[harry_rag]

Cardiff v Leeds: Zohore to score at 15/8 with PP (2.7)

Spartak Moscow v Liverpool: Samedov to score at 7.6 (6.76), 6/1 with 888 ok.

[vikki37]

At half time, 2 out of 4 and in profit already!  Congrats!

[harry_rag]

Not my tipple but perhaps fitting that one of the players has a name that sounds like a brand of whiskey!

[harry_rag]

Goals for Talisca, Mertens and Zohore (unfortunately the latter managed a brace rather than Mertens).

82 winners from 205 bets (40%), +68.85 points with an ROI of 33.59%

[clarky101]

Harry,,,,,just spotted this thread, have you thought of goal scorer minutes on spin ?

[harry_rag]

Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona: Doumbia to score at 4/1 with Fred (4.69) and Messi to score at 16/25 with 888 (1.62)

No value on the "multi goal" prices for Messi tonight but the anytime, short as it is, just makes it over the line. Honourable mention for the same firms 11/2 scores both halves which is the closest to a qualifying bet and is ok for an interest.

[harry_rag]

CSKA Moscow v Man U: Martial to score at 13/5 with PP (3.47)