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Marc Kearney

Mexico > Ascenso MX > Apertura 2017

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05.08. 11:00 Atlante Celaya    
05.08. 11:30 Leones Negros Zacatecas Mineros    
05.08. 11:30 Venados Dorados de Sinaloa    
05.08. 13:00 Cimarrones de Sonora Zacatepec    
05.08. 13:00 Murcielagos Cafetaleros de Tapachula    
06.08. 10:00 Alebrijes Oaxaca UAEM Potros    
06.08. 11:00 Juarez Correcaminos    
06.08. 11:00 Tampico Madero Atl. San Luis

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Celaya vs Dorados

Ascenso MX

October 29, 02:15 hrs

Celaya

Celaya is on the 4th position overall, is the best defensive with only 9 goals allowed in 11 matches, and is unbeaten at home allowing only 4 goals in 6 matches, this match is key as with yesterday results, the team  could not fall further from 6th position, but needs the points of this match to climb to third and have some cushion for the last two rounds and achieve qualification to playoffs.

Lost last match on away against Mineros Zacatecas, with this breaking a streak of five matches without defeat, collecting three wins on that stretch, and now returning home should be key for getting a good result.

Dorados

Started strong the season, but since round 5 the team has just been able to win once, and the team is very irregular on away, and their latest form is just disastrous, four defeats in the last five matches, a lonesome home victory against Murcielagos. The team still have changes to qualify to playoffs but needs to improve urgently, something that I do not see happening in this match. Remain sure that Dorados will not make it easy.

Prediction

We have to go back to 2011 to find a victory of Celaya against Dorados, since then, two draws and two defeats. Celaya is arriving in a great form and their defensive is performing in top form, which should be the base to achieve something in this match, I find the value in the -0.25 AH as a low scoring draw is also a possibility, but Celaya is in prime position for this match.

Celaya -0.25 AH with 8 units@1.83 at 5Dimes

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Celaya vs Alebrijes Oaxaca

Ascenso MX Semifinal

November 26, 02:00 hrs

Celaya

Celaya did not loss at home during regular season and in quarterfinals where able to show their power there to revert a negative result on the first leg and proceed to semifinals. 

For this match they only need one goal as their better position on the overall table will see them through, if their rivals scored a goal, they will be force to score at least two as the away goal will be determinant key to proceed.

The team only allowed four goals in eight matches, for an average of 0.5 goals against, and score 13 for an average of 1.6 goals per match.   With an streak of nine ascenso mx matches without defeat at home (including a 2-0 victory against Alebrijes Oaxaca), the team looks strong for this match.

The experience of their players just add to their positive as they know how to be patience and maintain control of the match.

Alebrijes

The team did not fare well on away during the season with just three victories in five matches, still they obtain an goal average of 1.05 goals per match.  Carries an streak of three matches without victory still previous to that they where able to achieve two away victories which help them to arrive to quarterfinals.

Their great result from the first leg provides them with the advantage that they did not allow a goal from Celaya, so in case  they are able to score, the away goal will  be key if they end equal on the global score.  

Prediction

As in the first leg a tight match is expected, Celaya defence was key to bring them here and in the first leg only allowed a single goal, in this second leg a low scoring match is expected, Celaya will look for that goal but in will be patience to get it. If Alebrijes is able to score a goal, everything could be going for a high scoring match as Celaya will need more goals, but I expect Celaya defence to hold.

Celaya with 6 units @ 2.40 at Bwin

Under 2.5 goals with 2 units @ 1.54 at Unibet

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FC Juarez vs Alebrijes Oaxaca

Ascenso MX Final – Second Leg

December 3, 03:00 hrs

FC Juarez

Second place of the overall table, with a similar step on away than on home, the team arrived to the final after beating Venados Merida and Tampico Madero in both series the team won the second leg. Against Venados Merida to affirm the positive result of the first leg and against Tampico Madero for qualifying to this final.

The team has positive results and constantly battles to arrive to Liga MX, and here has another chance to achieve that. Despite the defeat on the first leg, the team should come back and maintain their good form in home that allowed them to get the title and half-ticket to Liga MX.

In last the nine matches at home they have only lost once, against Cafetaleros on the last round of regular season, and obtained five victories in that same period.

Alebrijes Oaxaca

Despite this season not advancing beyond group stage in Copa MX, the team proceed to playoffs as the fifth best team overall, also with a similar form on away than in home the team was able to reach the final by obtaining good results at home, a 3-1 victory against Atletico Zacatepec and then against FC Celaya a 1-0 victory that allowed them to proceed despite losing 2-1 the second leg thanks to the away goal.

Lately the team has struggle on away with only two victories in the last nine matches, with four consecutive matches without victory after that.  Still the team has advantage to reach the title as they did not allowed an away goal from FC Juarez, and if they are able to make one here, then they will force FC Juarez to have to make three goals to claim the title, which might provide Alebrijes with plenty of counterattacking chances.

Prediction

A tight match as with just one goal from FC Juarez, then extratimes and penalties, but a goal of Alebrijes changes completely as the title will be defined in the 90 minutes. I expect a FC Juarez being careful in defense and looking for the needed goals.

FC Juarez with 6 units @1.88 at Sportingbet 

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