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Value Bets (Football)

QPRMinty

By QPRMinty
in Glory Hunters

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Could this strategy have a future?  

5 members have voted

  1. 1. At first glance, do you think this strategy has the makings of something great? Or is it just another dud?

    • Yes, it looks like it has legs
      1
    • No, you've just been lucky so far
      1
    • Possibly, but it needs more time
      2
    • Umm.........
      1

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

Posted
Posted (edited)

Hello all.

I've been signed up to the forum since 2014, but this is my first post.........I'm shy, alright??!!

I want to publicise selections for a value finding strategy I've been working on for the last 6 months.

Along with some other little strategies, I've been monitoring results for this since mid-February, but didn't do anything with it in March, April or the first half of May. So the following results data spans the period of 4th February to today, 30th July (180 days), but I was only checking for selections for 93 of those days.

This strategy started out horrendously..........after a quick 8 point gain in the first 2 weeks, it quickly plummeted to 8 points below zero. That negative 8 point position was recorded on May 28th. Since then the recovery has been nothing short of miraculous......a positive climb of 42 points from the negative position in May to a 34 points positive balance as of yesterday.

I would like to be able to blow my own trumpet and say that I've cracked it.....found the Holy Grail, etc., etc.....but we all know that this game is the cruellest of all games. All I can do is press on to the 200 bet mark, by which time I hope to have a clearer knowledge of the true personality of this strategy. In short, I need to see it either maintain consistency on its current trajectory, or recover from more than one bad run.

My selections so far have been based on Betfair odds, and are net of 5% commission. Obviously, better odds can be found at some bookies and without the commision.

You can view my results so far, here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18ur_RWboNRj4rFqkgbslwMwcrDrFQHP2E1mvXb-PBwI/edit?usp=sharing

 

Anyway, here are the vital statistics so far.......

=====================================================================

Sport: Football

Strategy Type: Value

Bet Type: Backing

Stake Size Per Bet: 1 Point - £5
(Equates to 2% of starting bank of £250. To be recalculated after every £100 of profit).

Number of Bets: 94

Average Odds: 3.90 (26% Implied Probability)

Average Winning Odds: 3.79

Strike Rate: 37%

ROI: 36% (after 5% commission) / 41% (without commission)

Points P/L: 33.83 (after 5% Commission) / 38.72 (Bookies)

Average Points Profit Per Bet: 0.35

Expected Losing Sequence: 10 Bets

Actual Longest Losing Sequence: 9 Bets

Longest Winning Sequence: 4 Bets

Current Edge: 34%

Chi-Test Results: 98% Skill, 2% Luck (Currently)

=====================================================================

I will post selections as early before the fixtures as I can, possibly twice in a 24 hour period, as some selections at the moment are for South American fixtures.

I will also provide regular updates of vital statistics as I go.

Start bank: 100 Points (£250 - 1 Point = £2.50)

Thank you for reading, and please do join me on my quest to see if I truly am finding value or if I'm just on a lucky run.......gulp.....

=====================================================================

PS.....I would be interested to see fellow members' views on the results and stats so far, so I've added a poll.
(why not...first forum post...may as well take full advantage of every little gizmo!)

 

Edited by QPRMinty
Change of Google Docs link
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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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Just to clarify.........when I'm recording paper trades I don't use a 'bank', so I start from zero points. That way I can look in my profit/loss column and just see the total gain or loss, with no bank included.

So when I say this strategy went 8 points below zero, I don't mean it went bust, just down 8 points from my starting balance of 0 points.

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Xtc12

Xtc12

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Welcome Minty

Had a quick look at the results, that was a great recovery from the 26th February on after a run of 1 win in 18.

Did you change anything from then to when you came back in May ?

Think you need a longer trialing period but anything that makes profit has legs. 

One thing that stood out on the negative scale ..... 28th July, do not back against my hometown club :lol

All the best with this.

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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Thank you both for the 'welcomes'.

Xtc12........I did make a minor change to how I calculated the value within my spreadsheet. At the time I didn't think anything of it - it was just a correction to a formula that was incorrect, but looking back it could have been the turning point. Trouble is I can't find any old copies of the spreadsheet to remember the change I made. I cannot also remember if the change was at that time, either. :$

One thing has crossed my mind though, is that the upturn seemed to coincide with the end of the winter leagues and the start of the summer leagues. So it could be that this is a summer-league-only strategy. It could be said that it's easier to find value in the lesser-known leagues. Time will tell.....

I'm inclined to agree that a longer trial period may be required, as although the variance since the bad run has been steady, it was a huge dip early on. As more data points are plotted on the graph it could well turn out to have been a minor blip in the grand scheme of things. I really hope so. :hope

Your home town is Cobh? Apart from knowing it's in the Republic of Ireland, I've never really considered where exactly it is or what it's like. I just googled and it looks a beautiful place. The buildings overlooking the harbour reminds me of Copenhagen.

==================

No picks for today.

 

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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BET 1

League: Brazilian Serie A

Date: 03-Aug-17

Time: 01:00 GMT

Fixture: Atletico-MG v Corinthians

Bet: 1 Point on Corinthians @ 4.30 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 3.13 would still represent value, according to my calculations.

 

BET 2

League: Brazilian Serie A

Date: 03-Aug-17

Time: 01:00 GMT

Fixture: Vitoria v Ponte Preta

Bet: 1 Point on Ponte Preta @ 3.60 (Betfair).

Notes: Not a lot of wriggle-room on this one - odds as low as 3.57 would still represent value, according to my calculations.

Edited by QPRMinty
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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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Note for Moderators.....

Apologies for the edit of the above selections post........I just re-read the rules and had slightly misunderstood them.

I'm better informed now and it won't happen again.

I simply added the 'Notes' sections below each selection.

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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BET 3

League: Irish Division 1

Date: 04-Aug-17

Time: 19:45 GMT

Fixture: Cabinteely v Waterford

Bet: 1 Point on Cabinteely @ 6.20 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 3.93 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 4.98.

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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BET 4

League: Brazilian Serie B

Date: 05-Aug-17

Time: 00:30 GMT

Fixture: Nautico v Leverdense

Bet: 1 Point on Luverdense @ 3.80 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 2.64 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.70.

 

BET 5

League: Japanese J-League 2

Date: 05-Aug-17

Time: 11:00 GMT

Fixture: Nagasaki v Gifu

Bet: 1 Point on Nagasaki @ 2.28 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 2.05 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.23.

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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BET 6

League: Japanese J-League 2

Date: 05-Aug-17

Time: 11:00 GMT

Fixture: Renofa Tamaguchi v Kumamoto

Bet: 1 Point on Kumamoto @ 3.85 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 2.87 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.74.

 

BET 7

League: Chinese Super League

Date: 05-Aug-17

Time: 12:35 GMT

Fixture: Jiangsu Suning v Henan Jianye

Bet: 1 Point on Henan Jianye @ 5.50 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 3.45 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 4.18.

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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RESULTS

Bet 5: Won (+1.28 pts)

Bet 6: Won (+2.85 pts)

Bet 7: Lost (-1 pt)

===================================================

Start Points Balance: 100 pts
Current Points Balance: 103.06 pts      (after 5% commission)

Start Cash Balance: £250
Currents Cash Balance: £265.29      (after 5% commission)

===================================================

Results Spreadsheet

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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RESULTS

Bet 8: Lost (-1 pt)

===================================================

Start Points Balance: 100 pts
Current Points Balance: 102.06 pts      (after 5% commission)

Start Cash Balance: £250
Currents Cash Balance: £260.29      (after 5% commission)

===================================================

Results Spreadsheet

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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RESULTS

Bet 9: Lost (-1 pt)

===================================================

Start Points Balance: 100 pts
Current Points Balance: 101.06 pts      (after 5% commission)

Start Cash Balance: £250
Current Cash Balance: £255.29      (after 5% commission)

===================================================

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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BET 10

League: South Korean K-League

Date: 12-Aug-17

Time: 11:00 GMT

Fixture: Jeonnam v Jeonbuk

Bet: 1 Point on Jeonnam @ 8.40 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 4.46 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 6.78.

 

BET 11

League: Finnish Ykkonen

Date: 12-Aug-17

Time: 15:00 GMT

Fixture: Jaro v Gnistan

Bet: 1 Point on Gnistan @ 7.20 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 3.58 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 5.27.

 

BET 12

League: Swedish Allsvenskan

Date: 12-Aug-17

Time: 15:00 GMT

Fixture: Halmstad v Sirius

Bet: 1 Point on Sirius @ 3.00 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 2.23 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 2.94.

 

BET 13

League: Belarusin Vysshaya Liga

Date: 12-Aug-17

Time: 18:00 GMT

Fixture: Krumkachy v Dnepr Mogilev

Bet: 1 Point on Krumkachy @ 3.40 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 2.77 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.07.

 

BET 14

League: Brazilian Serie A

Date: 12-Aug-17

Time: 20:00 GMT

Fixture: Atletico GO v Coritiba

Bet: 1 Point on Coritiba @ 3.20 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 2.88 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 3.00.

 

BET 15

League: Brazilian Serie B

Date: 12-Aug-17

Time: 20:30 GMT

Fixture: Internacional v Londrina

Bet: 1 Point on Londrina @ 9.00 (Betfair).

Notes: Odds as low as 3.95 would still represent value, according to my calculations. But I would not take odds below 5.21.

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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RESULTS

Bet 10: Lost (-1 pt)

Bet 11: Lost (-1 pt)

Bet 12: Won (+1.9 pt)

Bet 13: Lost (-1 pt)

Bet 14: Lost (-1 pt)

Bet 15: Lost (-1 pt)

Notes: -3.1 pts on the day.

===================================================

Start Points Balance: 100 pts
Current Points Balance: 97.96 pts      (after 5% commission)

Start Cash Balance: £250
Current Cash Balance: £239.79      (after 5% commission)

===================================================

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QPRMinty

QPRMinty

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RESULTS

Bet 10: Lost (-1 pt)

===================================================

Start Points Balance: 100 pts
Current Points Balance: 96.96 pts      (after 5% commission)

Start Cash Balance: £250
Current Cash Balance: £234.79      (after 5% commission)

===================================================

On a bit of a losing run here, but 1 or 2 winners will put everything back on track.

:notworthy

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