The Open Championship (July 20th -23rd)

[BillyHills]

The Open Championship

Royal Birkdale

The Open this year goes back to Royal Birkdale for the first time since Padraig Harrington won here in 2008. I'm fortunate enough to live just a 5 minute drive from the course and I can tell you the town is buzzing at the moment. All sorts of side events will be going on in and around Southport and we even have had the Town hall gardens transformed into a mini interactive golf centre.

The weather forecast is pretty good as far as I can see, little rain expected and light winds. For those not local, Southport sits in its own micro climate, we have no snow, the sea can be two miles out and its always better than the weather forecast says. Royal Birkdale is on the coast but don'y be fooled into thinking you need to be able to play the wind here. I walk the dogs on Birkdale sands two or three times a week and its rarely windy, most of the course is a bit further in land and shielded by the dunes so I wouldn't expect any problems on that score. Just watch it now we will have a hurricane or something!!
I'm going on Tuesday to have a look round during practise so will report anything about the course thats worthwhile.

The course has not changed much over the years, it juts doesn't have the space to extend much and the actual yardage is about the same as it was in 2008. As long as you keep it straight enough I reckon the top players will find this test easy enough and I personally expect a double figure under par winning total.

Local player Tommy Fleetwood will be a popular winner, born and bred in the town he has just won the French Open so is in terrific form. The local bookies will go bust if he pulls it off and its not out of the question. He will know the course well.

It looks a wide open event and all the big names will fancy their chances, Dustin Johnson is the early favourite along with Jordon Spieth. Defending champion Henrik Stenson and the consistent Justin Rose will also be popular in the betting along with the enigmatic Rory McIlroy, if he's in the mood he could win this thing but it's a big IF.

 

Latest Odds with Bet365

[BillyHills]

Dustin Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood and Hideki Matsuyama were all see on the course Saturday, first practice rounds are under way.

Rory McIlroy has booked an 8.20 am tee time for Sunday after an early bath from the Scottish Open.

 

[Tedthewolf]

McIlroy out to 20/1 thats massive  but can he bounce back well  its a yes from me im  on e/w. at various prices.

[DanV89]

Good stuff BH thanks. Never been to a golfing event but I've got tickets for Friday so looking forward to it. Not hugely into golf only really watch the majors but a couple of mates were going so I said I'd come along - something different! Have to agree with Ted, Rory looks massive considering this time last year you'd probably have been looking at single figure odds on him. I've already backed Fowler as I do in every major and he's usually there or there abouts. Also has a small ew investment on Ian Poulter at 100/1 as he hinted at a return to form in the Scottish Open at weekend. 

[Striker]

Think the American Charley Hoffman will play well

Though only 39th last week played well and was only let down by his putting. Before that was 3rd & 8th in consecutive weeks

Will have a Spread bet on his finishing position with Sporting Index

SELL @ 50 [Max Make up of 70]

[owenclass]

Padraig Harrington to win the Open Championship 50/1 paddy power

Well im going for the last player to win at Birkdale as he is playing great at the moment and finished well in Scottish Open which is a good warm up tournament for the third major of the year

Tommy Fleetwood to win the Open Championship 25/1 paddy power

I think i may have to go for the form player who is having a the best season of his life as he could have won the US Open and won the French Open a few weeks ago. He also playing on a course he knows very well as he lives nearby so he may have an advantage

Edited July 17, 2017 by owenclass

[BillyHills]

From an article on Betfair:

Trends of past winners:
Open form
- Nine of last 10 Open winners had registered a top 6 in the event previously
- Six of last 10 Open winners had registered a top 3 in the event previously

Nationality

- Three of last 10 Open winners were American
- Four of last 10 Open winners were Irish/Northern Irish
- Two of last 10 Open winners were South African
- One of last 10 Open winners was from Continental Europe
Age

- Four of last 10 Open winners were in their 30s
- Four of last 10 Open winners were in their 40s
- Two of last 10 Open winners were in their 20s
- Eight of last 10 Open winners were 35 or over
World ranking at the time

- Eight of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 50
- Seven of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 30
- Four of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 10
Current form

- Eight of last 10 Open winners had a top 20 in one of their previous three starts

Played week before

- Seven of last 10 Open winners (including all of the last seven) had teed it up the week before

What we're looking for?

Taking the strongest trends, the ideal fit for an Open champion for Royal Birkdale is as follows:

- Has had a previous top 6 in an Open
- Is 35 or over
- In world's top 30
- Has a top 20 in one of their previous three starts
- Played the week before (five of last six Open winners had played in the Scottish Open on a links course)
- Is not the defending champion (9 of last 10 have failed to win the following year)

Adam Scott 28/1 Skybet (EW 10 places)

The 37-year-old Australian, who sits 15th in the world rankings, was runner-up along the coast at Royal Lytham in 2012 and followed that with T3, T5 and T10 in his next three Open starts. He was T10 at the St. Jude Classic recently and took the wise move of coming to GB early to tee it up in the Scottish Open.

That's enough to make him the only man to tick every box but, as a bonus, it's good to see that there have been three Aussie winners in the nine Opens at Royal Birkdale. And... Scott played there in 2008 and posted a decent T16 after lying T4 after day one.

Also, six of the last 10 Open winners had bagged a top 10 in one of the first two majors of that season. Scott was T9 at The Masters.

Near-miss candidate: Justin Rose

Rose is 36, was famously T4 as an amateur in the 1998 Open at Royal Birkdale and made the top four in the Irish Open last time. That latter result is interesting as it was also on a links course so, although it wasn't the week before like the Scottish Open, it still means that Rose has got in some very useful, competitive play at a links course in close proximity to the start of The Open. Previously the Irish Open had been played in May rather than July and sometimes on a parkland course so its relevance was diminished.

[BillyHills]

Went today, it was really impressive to be honest.

Fortunes have been spent on organising this and the locals are obviously sceptical.

It was a hot day and I know some take practice more serious than others but if you go on body language alone then stay clear of Fowler, Walker, Garcia, Poulter and Casey. They looked as if they just couldn't be bothered, not even finishing puts some of the time.

On the other side of the coin, Rory was buzzing, Mickelson superb (spent ages with the young fans too! Note to Garcia who ignored them) and Tommy Fleetwood kept himself to himself and just got on with the job in hand. 

Photos here:

[Bamford]

Paul Williams our European Tour tipster has gone for Fowler (16/1), Rose (22/1) plus two more with Skybet 10 places each way - so Grace 45/1 and Snedeker 70/1 - bigger prices with less places available elsewhere. 

[BillyHills]

Bets:

Top English : J.Rose 7/2 Skybet
Top USA : J. Spieth 7/1 Betfred EW First 4
Top Aussie: A. Scott 9/4 Betfred
Top Cont/Euro: H.Stenson 6/1 Paddy Power EW First 4

Outright

J.Rose 20/1 Bet365 EW First 8
T.Fleetwood 25/1 Paddy Power EW First 8
P.Mickelson 45/1 Paddy Power EW First 8
R.McIlroy 20/1 Bet365 Win Only

Hole In One 4/5 Bet365 (nearly saw one today)

[harry_rag]

On 7/17/2017 at 9:26 PM, Striker said:

Think the American Charley Hoffman will play well

Though only 39th last week played well and was only let down by his putting. Before that was 3rd & 8th in consecutive weeks

Will have a Spread bet on his finishing position with Sporting Index

SELL @ 50 [Max Make up of 70]

Followed at the same price with Star Spreads. They will double the profit on any FP sells if you sell the winner. Not that likely in this case perhaps but still an offer to have on your side if the price can't be bettered.

[owenclass]

6 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Bets:

Top English : J.Rose 7/2 Skybet
Top USA : J. Spieth 7/1 Betfred EW First 4
Top Aussie: A. Scott 9/4 Betfred
Top Cont/Euro: H.Stenson 6/1 Paddy Power EW First 4

Outright

J.Rose 20/1 Bet365 EW First 8
T.Fleetwood 25/1 Paddy Power EW First 8
P.Mickelson 45/1 Paddy Power EW First 8
R.McIlroy 20/1 Bet365 Win Only

Hole In One 4/5 Bet365 (nearly saw one today)

I like your bets. But i was not thinking about Adam Scott as top Australian as quite a few people are saying Marc Leishman and Andrew Dodt. But i think Scott is worth a punt

So you think Mcilroy will do well this week even though he is playing awful

Im thinking of doing a bet for him to miss the cut at 5/2 paddy power as it could well happen

Edited July 18, 2017 by owenclass

[BillyHills]

@owenclass I saw him yesterday and just think he's in the mood, win or bust with Rory and at the prices he's worth a small punt. I know what you mean about him missing the cut, he could well do but this course isn't that hard in my opinion.

 

[BillyHills]

Been watching some of the build up online and I must say if Henrik Stenson manages to play half decent he deserves a medal. The amount of Media stuff he has to do being the defending champ is ridiculous. He is being dragged from pillar to post and he must be praying the thing to start tomorrow.

Good luck to him

[Boulder5111]

thanks for the "inside" updates BH, really interesting stuff. Great photos too 

Look like Friday might be the day that we see who's really up for it since the weather might take a turn for the worse then.

I like the "experienced angle", I guess if I look round I could get a price on a player aged 35+ winning it.

The 4/5 on the hole in one also seems a decent price - good luck !

[Tedthewolf]

My Bets

on Fowler from last year 33/1 1/4 1-5

on Matsuyamsa  from last year 40/1 1/4 1-5 

Mcilroy had a  decent e/w bet @ 18/1 1/5 10 places  + little bits e/w  other various odds

By Hun-An 125/1 1/5 10 places

Mcilroy first round leader  e/w 28/1

2 or more holes in one 5/2

Fowler to win a major in 2017 10/1

Lowry to win a major 2017  40/1

 

[owenclass]

Rickie Fowler First round leader 28/1 paddy power

Jordan Spieth First round leader 25/1 paddy power

Sergio Garcia First round leader 28/1 paddy power

Tommy Fleetwood First round leader 40/1 paddy power

 

These players are in form and have had good seasons also the course suits their game which is an advantage

 

Players to miss the cut

Jason Day 11/4 paddy power

Dustin Johnson 9/2 paddy power

Rory Mcilroy 5/2 paddy power

Bubba Watson evens paddy power

 

All three of Day Johnson and Mcilroy as an acca pays out 50/1 paddy power

 

These four players are not in form and they are going into this major i not the best shape on a course that is tough but fair

 

 

Edited July 20, 2017 by owenclass

[Striker]

On 17/07/2017 at 9:26 PM, Striker said:

Think the American Charley Hoffman will play well

Though only 39th last week played well and was only let down by his putting. Before that was 3rd & 8th in consecutive weeks

Will have a Spread bet on his finishing position with Sporting Index

SELL @ 50 [Max Make up of 70]

 

Good start by Charley to finish on 3 under.

Could have been a lot better as at one stage he was tied for the lead!

But two late bogeys put paid to that. So with a poor weather forecast for the weekend and that poor finish on my mind, have decided to take a decent profit tonight.

BUY @ 32 so am taking a Profit of 18pts

 

 

[harry_rag]

I'm not going to second guess you so have don the same. Cheers for that one. 

If it's the wrong call I hope it's really wrong as I've still got the prospect of the double payout if he did go on to win the whole thing!

[owenclass]

Do you think that it will be either Spieth or Koepka that wins the Open Championship

[Striker]

From what I saw today Paul Casey played the best golf and if his putter had behaved would be a clear leader after round one

[owenclass]

On 20/07/2017 at 11:41 PM, Striker said:

From what I saw today Paul Casey played the best golf and if his putter had behaved would be a clear leader after round one

I think that it is his putter that lets him down when he is contention for a major

[Striker]

Agree, always been a problem for him

[owenclass]

Final round bets

Ian Poulter Top English player 11/4 paddy power

Brooks Koepka to win The Open Championship without Spieth and Kuchar 4/1 paddy power

A Playoff 7/2 paddy power

Three man playoff 14/1 paddy power

The final round is always exciting and it could be close if Kuchar and Koepka get near the leader by having good rounds. And also Poulter has got a great chance of being Top English player at the Open

Edited July 23, 2017 by owenclass

[BillyHills]

Ended up with 2 winning bets, Spieth was the top USA player and Stenson was 3rd in his field.

At least I was right about the course, I predicted a score of 10 under at least, and dead unlucky with the hole in one

Well done to those making a profit this year

 

Quote

 

Bets:

Top English : J.Rose 7/2 Skybet
Top USA : J. Spieth 7/1 Betfred EW First 4
Top Aussie: A. Scott 9/4 Betfred
Top Cont/Euro: H.Stenson 6/1 Paddy Power EW First 4

Outright

J.Rose 20/1 Bet365 EW First 8
T.Fleetwood 25/1 Paddy Power EW First 8
P.Mickelson 45/1 Paddy Power EW First 8
R.McIlroy 20/1 Bet365 Win Only

Hole In One 4/5 Bet365 (nearly saw one today)

 

 

[owenclass]

42 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Ended up with 2 winning bets, Spieth was the top USA player and Stenson was 3rd in his field.

At least I was right about the course, I predicted a score of 10 under at least, and dead unlucky with the hole in one

Well done to those making a profit this year

 

 

Well done mate

I had a better on Spieth during the first round so im happy about that