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StevieDay1983

Weekend > Aug 11th - 13th

13 posts in this topic

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The opening weekend of the 2017/18 Premier League season is set to start in one month from now. The season opens up with Arsenal versus Leicester and then there are a number of intriguing fixtures after that. Based on the transfers that clubs have made already what are your thoughts on these games? How will the newly promoted teams do? Can you already see a few teams struggling? What about teams fighting it out for the title? Are you of the belief that the top seven are in a league of their own now?

@sajtion, @discipline, @Pipoca, @the bastardian, @andrewcalo, @Mindfulness, @Sir Puntalot, @AndreBR, @mrclubbie, @neilovan, @allyhibs, @Judeksi, @Tiffy, @KikoCy, @Bett, @zemo91, @sm0kez, @Bronxie, @Duuc, @Dylan Lynch, @betcatalog, @vasilli07, @omch@, @Pep004, and @WinningAdvice, you guys all got involved in the Premier League betting last season. What do you think?

@Torque and @AK1979, you also got involved in the ante-post chat. Do you have any early tips?

AK1979 and andrewcalo like this

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Thanks for the tag.

I think Stoke will struggle for reasons I outlined in the antepost thread. Arnautovic is being linked with West Ham today and to lose him would make them more impotent than they are already.

Spurs, after a couple of great seasons may struggle to replicate that having basically forfeited home advantage for the season. We saw in last season's CL campaign how significant that can be.

Bournemouth appear to have bought well and could surprise if they can improve defensively.

Arsenal could be underrated if Wenger perseveres with the 3 at the back formation. They won something like 9 out of 10 games playing this formation at the end of last season and then dominated Chelsea in the cup final so it appears to suit the players. 12/1 might underrate them.

Chelsea and Liverpool will need bigger squads, being involved in Europe this season.

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I havent really linked any of that to the weekend games have I? :lol

With that in mind let's go for the following in a mug Yankee for small stakes. 

Everton 1.7

Bournemouth 3.4

Newcastle +1 

Watford 6.0

 

 

Edited by AK1979
Wrong odds

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Man U and Man City are on my radar this season. Newcastle also. As @AK1979 said, I think SPURS will struggle this year. Every home game will feel like a cup game for the visitors.

I've noted from the first months fixtures alone that Newcastle and Man U get a lot of Monday and Friday games - mega annoying but understandable for Man U (time difference for the majority of the glory hunters around the world) but why Newcastle? 

You've got to think that Sky figure they'll be ones to watch this year.

P.s. man city man u and Newcastle +1 comes in at 2.7

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On 16/07/2017 at 6:08 AM, andrewcalo said:

Man U and Man City are on my radar this season. Newcastle also. As @AK1979 said, I think SPURS will struggle this year. Every home game will feel like a cup game for the visitors.

I've noted from the first months fixtures alone that Newcastle and Man U get a lot of Monday and Friday games - mega annoying but understandable for Man U (time difference for the majority of the glory hunters around the world) but why Newcastle? 

You've got to think that Sky figure they'll be ones to watch this year.

P.s. man city man u and Newcastle +1 comes in at 2.7

Yeah, I'm not sure Lukaku is the £70m striker he's valued at but he can turn draws into wins which is exactly what Manchester United want. Mourinho took over such an unbalanced side. Crucially, I think Pogba will have a stormer this season. He is settled now and I expect us to see him at his best this season. I feel United still need another defender but otherwise they are looking strong. Lindelof is the shrewdest signing of the window in my opinion.

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15 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

@StevieDay1983 you were saying your mate doesn't bet in the first two months because of unpredictability- I find weeks 3 through 8 the most predictable, before the madness of all the other competitions, injuries, etc sets in. 

Yeah, same here. My brothers and I always used to wait until the 10th game before making our position-by-position predictions for the season because we felt that was about the time things settled without giving too much away. I'm comfortable betting any time after 5 games to 35 games (in the Championship).

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I want to focus on Premier League (teams), AH bets, this season. For the first round I really think there are a lot of games to stay away from.

Arsenal - Leicester: Arsenal -1.25AH @1.85 in the opening match of the season against Leicester doesn't look good to me. In my opinion it can go a lot of ways. There is no value on Leicester for the same reason. Maybe if Mahrez will be sold, I'm more declined to bet Arsenal, but even then I find -1.25AH too much. Arsenal isn't the most consistent team for betting purposes IMO.

Watford - Liverpool: Liverpool -0.75AH @1.75...neh....first match of season, away, how do new players perform...too much questions for a good bet at those odds. I think odds are right.

Chelsea - Burnley: Chelsea -1.75AH @1.77 . Expect Chelsea to fire up from the beginning, but is that worth 2+ goals win against Burnley in first match @1.77? Questionable. If odds rise towards @2.00 I will reconsider, but I guess that won't happen.

Palace - Huddersfield: really don't have a clue about what to expect in this stage of the season...so I don't do anything here. Though I fancy De Boer as coach :) so I'll closely watch them in forthcoming matches.

Everton - Stoke: my second bet this season (first bet is Everton -2.00AH @1.72 against Ruzomberok in EL). Everton did really well in transfer market with improvements in every line, despite loss of Lukaku and Deulofeu. I think Everton can repeat the positive 2016/2017 season and maybe will be the suprise of the season. Stoke on the other hand lost in quality, while they aren't that strong at the first place. Together with the fact that Everton plays home and already played 2 'real' games at that point, I think -0.75AH @1.89 is really good value). Everton can win by a 1-2 goal margin.

Southampton - Swansea: same as Palace comment.

WBA - Bournemouth: same as Palace comment.

Brighton - Man. City: City -1.25AH @1.84 looks good to me already, but maybe odds will rise a little bit. Brighton just promoted, which means they are to be expected fighting against relegation. City on the other hand will compete for champions. Guns will blaze directly because quality difference is huge. I think line will change to -1.50AH towards KO.

Newcastle - Tottenham: how will Tottenham fare (as people already posted in this thread)? That's a question that will be answered in the first matches of the season. Opening against Newcastle away won't be easy for them so I'm looking at Newcastle right now. But still Newcastle +0.75AH @1.85 is weak. I want them higher before I even start to think about betting that line.

Man. Utd. - West Ham: last 2 seasons Man Utd didn't do very well. The team struggled. They have improved, but how does that effect the play? I want to watch how it will deploy, so don't bet on them now. West Ham will be fighting relegation I think, but the line, +1.50AH @2.03 holds no value. Man Utd can easily draw, win by 1 goal margin or trash West Ham.

So for now only Everton -0.75AH @1.89 and maybe City -1.25AH @1.84.

Edited by Charon84

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i think there will be a huge gap between top teams versus bottom in new season when you look at the money spent by some. i wish several teams could be relegated this season as i think last 6 or 7 teams at the bottom will be pure shit and worthy of relegation. i still think leicester were one season wonder and could go down if mahrez leaves especially. i will not be backing them away trips. i don't fancy newcastle either. the benitez hasn't signed many players and look to have very average team competing in premier league. it will be struggle for them but they will probably win several games at home but to get results away will be though. it will be interesting to see how everton cope without lukaku. i am not convinced by their new signings. they are aiming ambitiously for top four but i doubt it they will be even close.

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I think Koeman knows very well that top 4 is just an illusion. I think 5-7 is more realistic. Why are you not convinced by the new signings? Ofcourse Lukaku is a big loss, as well as Deulofeu (and maybe Barkley, who's injured right now) but the signings are normally speaking strong enough to make it to the number 5-7 spots.

Odds on City dropped a little bit, but I can't make up my mind yet. Have to wait what they will do :)

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