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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Aug 11th - 13th

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The opening weekend of the 2017/18 Premier League season is set to start in one month from now. The season opens up with Arsenal versus Leicester and then there are a number of intriguing fixtures after that. Based on the transfers that clubs have made already what are your thoughts on these games? How will the newly promoted teams do? Can you already see a few teams struggling? What about teams fighting it out for the title? Are you of the belief that the top seven are in a league of their own now?

@sajtion, @discipline, @Pipoca, @the bastardian, @andrewcalo, @Mindfulness, @Sir Puntalot, @AndreBR, @mrclubbie, @neilovan, @allyhibs, @Judeksi, @Tiffy, @KikoCy, @Bett, @zemo91, @sm0kez, @Bronxie, @Duuc, @Dylan Lynch, @betcatalog, @vasilli07, @omch@, @Pep004, and @WinningAdvice, you guys all got involved in the Premier League betting last season. What do you think?

@Torque and @AK1979, you also got involved in the ante-post chat. Do you have any early tips?

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Thanks for the tag.

I think Stoke will struggle for reasons I outlined in the antepost thread. Arnautovic is being linked with West Ham today and to lose him would make them more impotent than they are already.

Spurs, after a couple of great seasons may struggle to replicate that having basically forfeited home advantage for the season. We saw in last season's CL campaign how significant that can be.

Bournemouth appear to have bought well and could surprise if they can improve defensively.

Arsenal could be underrated if Wenger perseveres with the 3 at the back formation. They won something like 9 out of 10 games playing this formation at the end of last season and then dominated Chelsea in the cup final so it appears to suit the players. 12/1 might underrate them.

Chelsea and Liverpool will need bigger squads, being involved in Europe this season.

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I havent really linked any of that to the weekend games have I? :lol

With that in mind let's go for the following in a mug Yankee for small stakes. 

Everton 1.7

Bournemouth 3.4

Newcastle +1 

Watford 6.0

 

 

Edited by AK1979
Wrong odds

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Man U and Man City are on my radar this season. Newcastle also. As @AK1979 said, I think SPURS will struggle this year. Every home game will feel like a cup game for the visitors.

I've noted from the first months fixtures alone that Newcastle and Man U get a lot of Monday and Friday games - mega annoying but understandable for Man U (time difference for the majority of the glory hunters around the world) but why Newcastle? 

You've got to think that Sky figure they'll be ones to watch this year.

P.s. man city man u and Newcastle +1 comes in at 2.7

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On 16/07/2017 at 6:08 AM, andrewcalo said:

Man U and Man City are on my radar this season. Newcastle also. As @AK1979 said, I think SPURS will struggle this year. Every home game will feel like a cup game for the visitors.

I've noted from the first months fixtures alone that Newcastle and Man U get a lot of Monday and Friday games - mega annoying but understandable for Man U (time difference for the majority of the glory hunters around the world) but why Newcastle? 

You've got to think that Sky figure they'll be ones to watch this year.

P.s. man city man u and Newcastle +1 comes in at 2.7

Yeah, I'm not sure Lukaku is the £70m striker he's valued at but he can turn draws into wins which is exactly what Manchester United want. Mourinho took over such an unbalanced side. Crucially, I think Pogba will have a stormer this season. He is settled now and I expect us to see him at his best this season. I feel United still need another defender but otherwise they are looking strong. Lindelof is the shrewdest signing of the window in my opinion.

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15 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

@StevieDay1983 you were saying your mate doesn't bet in the first two months because of unpredictability- I find weeks 3 through 8 the most predictable, before the madness of all the other competitions, injuries, etc sets in. 

Yeah, same here. My brothers and I always used to wait until the 10th game before making our position-by-position predictions for the season because we felt that was about the time things settled without giving too much away. I'm comfortable betting any time after 5 games to 35 games (in the Championship).

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I want to focus on Premier League (teams), AH bets, this season. For the first round I really think there are a lot of games to stay away from.

Arsenal - Leicester: Arsenal -1.25AH @1.85 in the opening match of the season against Leicester doesn't look good to me. In my opinion it can go a lot of ways. There is no value on Leicester for the same reason. Maybe if Mahrez will be sold, I'm more declined to bet Arsenal, but even then I find -1.25AH too much. Arsenal isn't the most consistent team for betting purposes IMO.

Watford - Liverpool: Liverpool -0.75AH @1.75...neh....first match of season, away, how do new players perform...too much questions for a good bet at those odds. I think odds are right.

Chelsea - Burnley: Chelsea -1.75AH @1.77 . Expect Chelsea to fire up from the beginning, but is that worth 2+ goals win against Burnley in first match @1.77? Questionable. If odds rise towards @2.00 I will reconsider, but I guess that won't happen.

Palace - Huddersfield: really don't have a clue about what to expect in this stage of the season...so I don't do anything here. Though I fancy De Boer as coach :) so I'll closely watch them in forthcoming matches.

Everton - Stoke: my second bet this season (first bet is Everton -2.00AH @1.72 against Ruzomberok in EL). Everton did really well in transfer market with improvements in every line, despite loss of Lukaku and Deulofeu. I think Everton can repeat the positive 2016/2017 season and maybe will be the suprise of the season. Stoke on the other hand lost in quality, while they aren't that strong at the first place. Together with the fact that Everton plays home and already played 2 'real' games at that point, I think -0.75AH @1.89 is really good value). Everton can win by a 1-2 goal margin.

Southampton - Swansea: same as Palace comment.

WBA - Bournemouth: same as Palace comment.

Brighton - Man. City: City -1.25AH @1.84 looks good to me already, but maybe odds will rise a little bit. Brighton just promoted, which means they are to be expected fighting against relegation. City on the other hand will compete for champions. Guns will blaze directly because quality difference is huge. I think line will change to -1.50AH towards KO.

Newcastle - Tottenham: how will Tottenham fare (as people already posted in this thread)? That's a question that will be answered in the first matches of the season. Opening against Newcastle away won't be easy for them so I'm looking at Newcastle right now. But still Newcastle +0.75AH @1.85 is weak. I want them higher before I even start to think about betting that line.

Man. Utd. - West Ham: last 2 seasons Man Utd didn't do very well. The team struggled. They have improved, but how does that effect the play? I want to watch how it will deploy, so don't bet on them now. West Ham will be fighting relegation I think, but the line, +1.50AH @2.03 holds no value. Man Utd can easily draw, win by 1 goal margin or trash West Ham.

So for now only Everton -0.75AH @1.89 and maybe City -1.25AH @1.84.

Edited by Charon84

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i think there will be a huge gap between top teams versus bottom in new season when you look at the money spent by some. i wish several teams could be relegated this season as i think last 6 or 7 teams at the bottom will be pure shit and worthy of relegation. i still think leicester were one season wonder and could go down if mahrez leaves especially. i will not be backing them away trips. i don't fancy newcastle either. the benitez hasn't signed many players and look to have very average team competing in premier league. it will be struggle for them but they will probably win several games at home but to get results away will be though. it will be interesting to see how everton cope without lukaku. i am not convinced by their new signings. they are aiming ambitiously for top four but i doubt it they will be even close.

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I think Koeman knows very well that top 4 is just an illusion. I think 5-7 is more realistic. Why are you not convinced by the new signings? Ofcourse Lukaku is a big loss, as well as Deulofeu (and maybe Barkley, who's injured right now) but the signings are normally speaking strong enough to make it to the number 5-7 spots.

Odds on City dropped a little bit, but I can't make up my mind yet. Have to wait what they will do :)

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On 24/07/2017 at 11:57 AM, Charon84 said:

I want to focus on Premier League (teams), AH bets, this season. For the first round I really think there are a lot of games to stay away from.

Arsenal - Leicester: Arsenal -1.25AH @1.85 in the opening match of the season against Leicester doesn't look good to me. In my opinion it can go a lot of ways. There is no value on Leicester for the same reason. Maybe if Mahrez will be sold, I'm more declined to bet Arsenal, but even then I find -1.25AH too much. Arsenal isn't the most consistent team for betting purposes IMO.

Watford - Liverpool: Liverpool -0.75AH @1.75...neh....first match of season, away, how do new players perform...too much questions for a good bet at those odds. I think odds are right.

Chelsea - Burnley: Chelsea -1.75AH @1.77 . Expect Chelsea to fire up from the beginning, but is that worth 2+ goals win against Burnley in first match @1.77? Questionable. If odds rise towards @2.00 I will reconsider, but I guess that won't happen.

Palace - Huddersfield: really don't have a clue about what to expect in this stage of the season...so I don't do anything here. Though I fancy De Boer as coach :) so I'll closely watch them in forthcoming matches.

Everton - Stoke: my second bet this season (first bet is Everton -2.00AH @1.72 against Ruzomberok in EL). Everton did really well in transfer market with improvements in every line, despite loss of Lukaku and Deulofeu. I think Everton can repeat the positive 2016/2017 season and maybe will be the suprise of the season. Stoke on the other hand lost in quality, while they aren't that strong at the first place. Together with the fact that Everton plays home and already played 2 'real' games at that point, I think -0.75AH @1.89 is really good value). Everton can win by a 1-2 goal margin.

Southampton - Swansea: same as Palace comment.

WBA - Bournemouth: same as Palace comment.

Brighton - Man. City: City -1.25AH @1.84 looks good to me already, but maybe odds will rise a little bit. Brighton just promoted, which means they are to be expected fighting against relegation. City on the other hand will compete for champions. Guns will blaze directly because quality difference is huge. I think line will change to -1.50AH towards KO.

Newcastle - Tottenham: how will Tottenham fare (as people already posted in this thread)? That's a question that will be answered in the first matches of the season. Opening against Newcastle away won't be easy for them so I'm looking at Newcastle right now. But still Newcastle +0.75AH @1.85 is weak. I want them higher before I even start to think about betting that line.

Man. Utd. - West Ham: last 2 seasons Man Utd didn't do very well. The team struggled. They have improved, but how does that effect the play? I want to watch how it will deploy, so don't bet on them now. West Ham will be fighting relegation I think, but the line, +1.50AH @2.03 holds no value. Man Utd can easily draw, win by 1 goal margin or trash West Ham.

So for now only Everton -0.75AH @1.89 and maybe City -1.25AH @1.84.

A really interesting read there mate. You'll be a great contributor to this section if you stick around. One thing I will say is be wary of writing off newly promoted teams at home in their first game. The atmosphere at the Amex is going to be incredible. It's not going to be easy for Manchester City in that one.

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6 hours ago, ac2 said:

Was tlaking to a good friend who is Eveton yesterday.

There's a feeling there that they've lost their way a little- all this cash but no real precision- they're frightened that they're going the way of. Chelsea and Man City.

It's a tough one. Money will always divide opinion in football. There are a lot of people tipping them as dark horses to break into the top four but I can't see it. Look at the squads of Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Arsenal. Can anybody realistically see Everton breaking into that group? I can't. 7th place at best for Koeman's men. They need to be careful as well. A few teams just behind them such as Bournemouth, Southampton and West Ham could well be pushing them even further down the table.

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Question to anyone that's supporting or backing Manchester United this season. Is signing Matic the missing piece in the jigsaw puzzle? Are the Red Devils now the team to beat and will they begin their campaign with a solid win on the opening weekend? Is it worth backing a win to nil?

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6 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Question to anyone that's supporting or backing Manchester United this season. Is signing Matic the missing piece in the jigsaw puzzle? Are the Red Devils now the team to beat and will they begin their campaign with a solid win on the opening weekend? Is it worth backing a win to nil?

I haven't seen any of West Ham's pre-season results / reports but they've definitely had a good window so far. They've strengthened in the areas where they've needed to and I don't see this opening game as a walk in the park for Man Utd. Don't forget Chicharito returns to face his old club. Need to wait for team news etc. but Man Utd @ 1.36 looks to be accurate price or maybe even a tad short as things stand imo.

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3 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

I haven't seen any of West Ham's pre-season results / reports but they've definitely had a good window so far. They've strengthened in the areas where they've needed to and I don't see this opening game as a walk in the park for Man Utd. Don't forget Chicharito returns to face his old club. Need to wait for team news etc. but Man Utd @ 1.36 looks to be accurate price or maybe even a tad short as things stand imo.

Yeah, I was going to back them to keep a clean sheet but we all know how common former players come back to haunt their old clubs. Hernandez is exactly the sort of player to do that. I can see it now. He scores late on to deny United the win and refuses to celebrate as a mark of respect. Maybe I'm just scarred as a Cardiff fan where all our ex-players score against us!

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11 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Question to anyone that's supporting or backing Manchester United this season. Is signing Matic the missing piece in the jigsaw puzzle? Are the Red Devils now the team to beat and will they begin their campaign with a solid win on the opening weekend? Is it worth backing a win to nil?

I'll tell you one thing, United should be very difficult to score against this year.  And Matic is a great fit.  A Mourinho favorite.  A destroyer to play in front of the back four.  Fit, tireless, big.  

The Matic signing will also help in a number of other ancillary ways.  First, should allow Pogba a lot more freedom to get forward and be a more dynamic offense force.  If you have a midfield of Pogba, Herrera, Mkhitayrin and Matic, you have a great blend of offensive and defensive midfielders, as well as a lot of energy in the likes of Herrera.  Further, if you look at that midfield you see the names Fellaini and Carrick not there.  Fellaini is a dreg and just a waste of space.  Carrick is a fine link between the defense and offense, a smart player, but he's lost almost any speed he had and needs plenty of rest between starts to be at his most effective.

The backline is decent enough.  Bailly has the makings of a very good CB, and then you have the likes of Smalling, Lindeloff and maybe even Jones to rotate in.  Long gone are the days of Rio and Vidic, but this central defense should be quite good all the same.  The full backs are not at full strength, with long term injury concerns of Shaw and Rojo, but Valencia is still very good.  Darmian, Jones (again) Ashley Young, maybe an Aurier signing should be good enough.  And in goal you have DDG who is proving time and time again to be one of the best GK's in the world.

Now, I know preseason pseudo-tournaments are not necessarily a great measure of just about anything, but in the ICC tournament, United was decent enough. They didn't allow a goal to Man City, and were much the better side.  I was at this match, and the score was not indicative of how much better they were.  Now, that City lineup was sub optimal, and I'm not sure what Pep was thinking with his first half lineup, but the second half City still had nothing to offer.  They drew Real Madrid 1-1, and the only goal they allowed there was a howler of a penalty by Lindeloff.  And then they played a strong Barca side and only did allow a single goal, Barca had a number of more early chances, but as the game went on, I feel United was just as good.

United was terrific last year defensively and I think this year will be just as solid.  I'd expect many, many unders unless they can find some goals from someone other than Lukaku (perhaps this is the year that Lingaard or Martial put it together to go with Rashford who is always seemingly dangerous).  

I don't think United are the best team in the premier league, I think City still should be, and I do favor Spurs chances quite a bit even moving into the new stadium.  But United should be in the mix for the first time in seemingly a good long while.

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7 hours ago, robbiewilliamson ESQ said:

United have the best defence in the Premierieship.  Like it or not Van Gall has a lot to do with this.

Also, I agree re: United in the USA - they were very, VERY good, and almost beat Barca. Tiredness got the better of them the last fixture.

Finally  yes - Fellaini - basically a comedy character - a walking toilet brush in lieu of a player - it makes me laugh out loud every time he plays - how the hell is this guy still making first team appearances? Awesome comedy.

 

Fellaini is a strange one. He was class at Everton. Has he just passed his peak or is he not being played in his best role? Imagine if he was performing for United like he was for Everton during his final two years with the Toffees.

The comments made by some of you guys who have watched United over the past month has just re-affirmed my belief that they are a team to back, particularly in the defensive stakes.

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On 29/07/2017 at 1:27 PM, StevieDay1983 said:

A really interesting read there mate. You'll be a great contributor to this section if you stick around. One thing I will say is be wary of writing off newly promoted teams at home in their first game. The atmosphere at the Amex is going to be incredible. It's not going to be easy for Manchester City in that one.

Well said!

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5 hours ago, robbiewilliamson ESQ said:

Swansea are BTTS and go on to win 10 to 1.

Double chance 2.25.

Draw no bet 3 to 1.

Fair enough it is Saint Marys, but Swansea will fight to the end for their gaffer.

Real value here. I'd day Swansea have 65% chance of winning, 25% if a draw, 10% of losing.

Surprised the bookies are still underestimating them after seven seasons. 

Sigurdsson was such a huge part of their campaign last year. I think his inevitable departure has got the bookies rattled. Personally, I think if Sigurdsson leaves then Swansea have to re-invest the money wisely. If they don't then I think they will go down. The Premier League is very competitive and all three teams coming up stand a great chance of staying up. I think Brighton and Huddersfield in particular could surprise a few people.

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7 hours ago, robbiewilliamson ESQ said:

Fair enough it is Saint Marys, but Swansea will fight to the end for their gaffer.

Real value here. I'd day Swansea have 65% chance of winning, 25% if a draw, 10% of losing.

Surprised the bookies are still underestimating them after seven seasons. 

I think it's fair to say that Southampton are a bit short @ 1.7, no value at all from my perspective.

On the other hand, saying that Swansea should be valued @ 1.54 for this game, I mean, seriously?

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i think burnley is going to beat chelsea 3-2 because i don't think chelsea is ready for new season at all. they can't replace costa with morata. he is going to flop in premiership. they sold matic who was crucial to their defense. hazard is probably negotiating with real madrid already and the team haven't signed enough players. i am taking double chance on burnley also because they will score 

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