2017/18 1st Round Qualifying > Jul 4th

[StevieDay1983]

@MightyWell, @mijOsim, @LePapo, @liamcorrigan86, and @MPLouis, you guys all had thoughts on the action last week. What do you reckon here? As a Welsh Premier League fan, I am very concerned that TNS may well exit the competition here. It was an awful result in the home leg and they really need to pull a performance out of the bag. Losing to a Gibraltar side is totally unacceptable for such a dominant side in Welsh football.

@vasilli07, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @DrBetter, @Duuc, @DrO, @immortal--, @Notorious, @betcatalog, @KingSoccertips, @discipline, @Pep004, @andrewcalo, @HastGill1, @ElPrincipito007, @salmonman, @DW_United, @allthethings, and @WinningAdvice, you guys were all heavily involved in the Champions League chat last year. What are you thinking ahead of these games?

[MightyWell]

The first legs last week showed that the games at this round of the competition can be very hard to call. TNS losing at home to Europa was obviously the shock result, but when you consider the Kosovan champions losing to their Faroese counterparts and Linfield scraping past La Fiorita, it becomes clear that these teams enter at this stage for a reason.

 

Having said that, the biggest value of the round for me again would be Linfield to beat La Fiorita at 4/9. The odds on a Sammarinese side to lose their 'home' leg (home matches for Sammarinese clubs in Europe are played at San Marino's national stadium rather than their own grounds) are usually between 1/10 and 1/3. In 34 European ties, there has only ever been one instance of a Sammarinese side losing by less than two goals on aggregate. La Fiorita would need to avoid defeat for that scenario to happen again tonight, but their record of 11 defeats from 11 games in European competitions suggests that's unlikely. It's hard to tell whether I overestimated Linfield last week - it's unusual for a Sammarinese side to come so close to avoiding defeat away from home, but from the highlights Linfield did seem to be the better side and I still think 1/5 was a big price. They will know there is no room for complacency in the return leg and at 4/9 look a good price to see the job through with some room to spare.

[StevieDay1983]

TNS managed to squeak through last night after extra time. They now face a mammoth task in the next round against Croat side Rijeka. It is clear that losing Harrison is going to welcome in a period of transition. Let's face it, they were never realistically going to progress past the second round of qualifying even if Harrison was still there so it's about pride. This Champions League campaign has raised a few eyebrows about how TNS will cope in the Welsh Premier League this season.