Division Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 (edited) I'm wondering how to use the ELO ratings on the website to determine value. Todays game between Dundalk v Galway has ELO ratings (4 game average) on the website of: Dundalk 40.75 Galway 14.75 Best Odds: Dundalk 1.2 Boylesports Galway 17.0 Ladbrokes How do I convert the ELO ratings into percentage chance of each team winnings and therefore calculate the expected value of each bet? Also, if one team played the best 4 teams in the league in the last 4 games and the other team played the worst 4 teams in the league in their last 4 games will the ELO ratings take this into account? Edited June 26, 2017 by Division Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPrincipito007 Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 You have to click on the V. They do it for you. I had the same problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 On 26/06/2017 at 3:26 PM, Division said: I'm wondering how to use the ELO ratings on the website to determine value. Todays game between Dundalk v Galway has ELO ratings (4 game average) on the website of: Dundalk 40.75 Galway 14.75 Best Odds: Dundalk 1.2 Boylesports Galway 17.0 Ladbrokes How do I convert the ELO ratings into percentage chance of each team winnings and therefore calculate the expected value of each bet? Also, if one team played the best 4 teams in the league in the last 4 games and the other team played the worst 4 teams in the league in their last 4 games will the ELO ratings take this into account? Sorry, just seen this and catching up on things. The short answer is you can't do that because there's too many variables. I am about to put a more simplistic guide up than the one we had before, which should make them much more easy to understand, although generally I think they're fairly self explanatory. I generally like to say that if a team is 20pts clear, they are a solid 1 goal superior to them. However, this can only be a guide. Take into account a team that may have a poor rating of say 9.00 in their last 2 matches at home, but then you look and they played Real Madrid and Barcelona consecutively - so they were obviously going to get battered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 10 hours ago, ElPrincipito007 said: You have to click on the V. They do it for you. I had the same problem. No idea what you're referring to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPrincipito007 Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said: No idea what you're referring to. For example Dundalk v Galway You click on the "v". The site will calculate the "correct" odd for you. Or am I interpreting his post incorrect? Edit: I am referring to the site clubelo.com, excuse me. Edited June 28, 2017 by ElPrincipito007 Sir Puntalot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 There isn't a V - are you talking about another site than right here? ElPrincipito007 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted June 30, 2017 Author Share Posted June 30, 2017 Looking forward to the new guide as I have no clue how to use the ratings to know if the odds offered on Team A to win @ 1.66 is value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dannyboy236 Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 Where abouts can i find your guides to the elo ratings how they work and how to use them? Great app btw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 On 06/08/2017 at 8:43 AM, Dannyboy236 said: Where abouts can i find your guides to the elo ratings how they work and how to use them? Great app btw to PL @Dannyboy236 - The old guide wasn't that great, but I'll be writing the new one very shortly, but basically the bigger the difference in ratings the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dannyboy236 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Just now, Sir Puntalot said: to PL @Dannyboy236 - The old guide wasn't that great, but I'll be writing the new one very shortly, but basically the bigger the difference in ratings the better. Will i get notified when its done? Or will it be added to the mobile site? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 It will be done over the weekend, and all will become clear. Just "Follow" this thread above, and you'll get notified. It will be on the all platforms of the site, desktop, tablet, mobile and the app. Dannyboy236 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dannyboy236 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Look forward to it and lots of winnings. Hopefully Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 @Dannyboy236 @Division - Explanation now live, but the page has gone a bit skewed (coder will fix later), but view in desktop for now https://www.punterslounge.com/elo-football-ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dannyboy236 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Think I've got it but iguess prediction won't work until 4 games played. May Have to read it a few times to get my head around it. Can an accumalator be worked out for this weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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