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Division

ELO Ratings

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I'm wondering how to use the ELO ratings on the website to determine value.

Todays game between Dundalk v Galway has ELO ratings (4 game average) on the website of:

  • Dundalk 40.75
  • Galway 14.75

Best Odds:

How do I convert the ELO ratings into percentage chance of each team winnings and therefore calculate the expected value of each bet?

 

Also, if one team played the best 4 teams in the league in the last 4 games and the other team played the worst 4 teams in the league in their last 4 games will the ELO ratings take this into account?

Edited by Division

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On 26/06/2017 at 3:26 PM, Division said:

I'm wondering how to use the ELO ratings on the website to determine value.

Todays game between Dundalk v Galway has ELO ratings (4 game average) on the website of:

  • Dundalk 40.75
  • Galway 14.75

Best Odds:

How do I convert the ELO ratings into percentage chance of each team winnings and therefore calculate the expected value of each bet?

 

Also, if one team played the best 4 teams in the league in the last 4 games and the other team played the worst 4 teams in the league in their last 4 games will the ELO ratings take this into account?

Sorry, just seen this and catching up on things. ;) 

The short answer is you can't do that because there's too many variables. I am about to put a more simplistic guide up than the one we had before, which should make them much more easy to understand, although generally I think they're fairly self explanatory.

I generally like to say that if a team is 20pts clear, they are a solid 1 goal superior to them. However, this can only be a guide. Take into account a team that may have a poor rating of say 9.00 in their last 2 matches at home, but then you look and they played Real Madrid and Barcelona consecutively - so they were obviously going to get battered. ;) 
 

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10 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

No idea what you're referring to. :unsure 

For example Dundalk v Galway

You click on the "v". The site will calculate the "correct" odd for you.

Or am I interpreting his post incorrect?

Edit: I am referring to the site clubelo.com, excuse me.

Edited by ElPrincipito007
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