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arsenalfh

Festival Fever

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4.50 Cheltenham - National Hunt Chase

You get a wide range of abilities when looking at jockeys in these amateur races so it's important to have a good pilot on board. Unfortunately the market has the top jockeys covered and there is little value in backing Jamie Codd, Barry O'Neill or Paddy Mullins while the likes of Derek O'Connor are considerably overbet looking at the data. So what jockeys are underrated?

The two that strike out in the data are Richard Deegan and James King. The former has 13 wins to 6 expected using Betfair SP when riding over hurdles or fences while the latter has 9 winners to 5 expected. Both Keepers Hill and Reigning Supreme are completely unexposed and with these two pilots jocked up, should run better than their odds suggest where you can get around 30 on the exchanges.

5pts - Keeper Hill to win @ 20/1 SportingBet

3.5pts - Reigning Supreme to win @ 28/1 SkyBet

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Still seething at the shocking ride Davy gave Petit Mouchoir but fair play to Ruby who stayed calm and went an even pace on Footpad. Definitely wrong about Ruby not being fully fit as he looks in exceptional form.

Bets: 5

Staked: 40.5pts

Returned: 0

Profit: -40.5

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1.30 Cheltenham - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

Samcro looks very short on what he has done so far. I would have expected him to be odds against and Next Destination will be stiff opposition particularly with Ruby showing no ill effects following his injury.

Like I said at the beginning of this thread I will generally be taking a data driven approach here to betting and my systems have highlighted to good bets at bigger prices. Vision Des Flos was a taking winner last time out and is the third highest rated horse on RPRs just 4lbs off the hot favourite Samcro. However it's the jockey booking that really catches the eye as the market really underrates Power when he takes over a horse for the first time with the Irishman winning 87 times when the market expects just 69. He's worth an each-way bet against the favourite as is Coolanly who runs for a trainer who's horses are underrated fresh. O'Brien has racked up 53 wins to just 40 expected when his horses run after a 90 day or longer break.

5pts - Vision Des Flos eacy-way @ 16/1 Bet365

0.7pts - Coolanly each-way @ 125/1 Betfred

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2.10 Cheltenham - RSA Novices' Chase

I've quite liked Presenting Percy the whole season but he looks nothing better than the right price at 11/4. I also like Monalee but I would have loved to see him in the JLT and use his jumping from the front. Henry's horses are generally quite keen going and don't stay too well (his record over shorter with chasers is much better) so it's a shame to see him line up here.

In the end I came down on Allysson Monterg at a massive price. Hobson's runners tend to come on a ton for their first experience over fences so he should take a massive step forward here and looks a bit of value.

1.5pts - Allysson Monterg to win @ 66/1 Bet365

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4.50 Cheltenham - Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Henderson is probably the man to follow in this race with Style De Garde and top jockey Nico de Boinville on board. Henderson usually leaves a bit more in the tank than the market expects on handicap hurdle with 59 wins to 43 expected and at 14/1 there looks to be a bit of juice in his price.

5.75pts - Style De Garde each-way @ 14/1 William Hill

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5.30 Cheltenham - Champion Bumper

Few bets here for me best of which is Didtheyleaveuoutto who has looked a high class bumper horse showing a devastating turn off foot to win twice this season. It's a real surprise that he has been such a drifter but the ground doesn't look too bad at all and he's starting to look a very big price; especially as Gifford has a great record with bumper horses excluding their debuts with 13 wins to 6 expected.

Mercy Mercy Me also looks one that has been overlooked by the market coming off a break for Fergal O'Brien who as mentioned earlier has 53 wins to 40 expected when horses are coming off breaks of 90 days or more. O'Brien has had a lot of bumper winners this season so the fact he is his only runner here might also be significant.

6.25pts - Didtheyleaveuotto to win @ 16/1 Betfair

4pts - Mercy Mercy Me to win @ 25/1 SkyBet

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2.10 Cheltenham - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

Delta Work had been running in smart company before progressing well in handicaps to qualify for today's final. His mark of 139 is the same rating he runs off in Ireland looks very generous as the handicapper usually adds a couple of pounds to Irish hurdlers to even the playing field. With the Elliott and Russell combination teaming up again Delta Work looks to be a bit of value.

8.4pts - Delta Work each-way @ 10/1 SkyBet (6 places)

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3.30 Cheltenham - Stayers' Hurdle

I don't like Yanworth in the stayers as he's an erratic jumper, King horses are usually overrated by the market and he might not even be good enough. Unowhatimeanharry is exposed now at this level and Bacardys needs to improve a ton. I like Supasundae and he's probably a little big at 8/1 as an improver and the form of the Irish Champion may get underestimated by the market after Faugheen's flop. But at 7/2 Sam Spinner has to be the better value. Great jumper, won't mind conditions, really progressive and O'Keefe does pretty well with his hurdlers (15 wins to 13 expected).

29pts - Sam Spinner to win @ 7/2 BlackType

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4.10 Cheltenham - Plate Handicap Chase

Again going back to the Power taking over to ride for the first time angle with the Irishman winning 87 times when the market expects just 69 under these circumstances. On top of that Viconte Du Noyer is down below his last winning mark and has had a wind op which has revived plenty of Tizzard horses in recent times. He's worth an each-way bet at massive prices.

2pts - Viconte Du Noyer each-way @ 40/1 Bet365 (5 Places)

5.30 Cheltenham - Kim Muir Handicap Chase

In the Kim Muir Band Of Blood is ridden by one of the better amateurs who might be underrated (16 wins 12.6 expected in chases) and better trainers (Newland 94 wins 75 expected in handicap chases) so he'll do for me. He's progressed well this season winning on his last two starts and is worth a bet at double figure prices to continue on this run for a duo who are generally underestimated by the market.

8.4pts - Band Of Blood each-way @ 10/1 SkyBet (5 places)

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3.30 Cheltenham - Cheltenham Gold Cup

Might Bite is the best horse on Timeform ratings and joint top on RPRs after his astonishing win in the RSA Novices' Chase last year. If he didn't stop when miles clear up the hill he probably would be half a stone clear of a fairly average Gold Cup field and is clearly the best horse in the race. I think the market is afraid of a repeat of his antics but Nico de Boinville knows the horse better now and a repeat is more unlikely. I thought he would be shorter than a 3/1 shot so he looks the clear value in my view.

29pts - Might Bite @ to win @ 7/2 SkyBet

Edited by arsenalfh

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