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Royal Ascot - Day 3 Just another update for later. The going stick reads - stand: 9.1, centre: 8.6, far: 9.0 and going by the first race the track looks fair although no one went down the middle.

Royal Ascot - Day 1 Throughout the season I'll try and keep this thread updated with my bets for the big summer festivals and also a running total to track any profit or loss. First off we have t

No luck on the final day but a very good festival overall. Apparently the Eclipse takes place during the Summer Festival at Sandown so I may be back then with some selections. Bets: 26 Profi

Harvest Festival - Day 1

The Harvest Festival kicks off at Listowel today with the unfortunate news that Coneygree won't be running in the Kerry National later in the week.

Today Champoleon looks a good bet in the maiden hurdle at 3.20 race as Meade has a terrific record in these events as long as his runners aren't debutantes over jumps. Under these conditions his record is 120 wins to 92 expected so 2nd favourite Champoleon looks the value.

Later on I have spoken about De Bromhead's record in handicap chases over the summer season and he runs two in the 5.00 race. He's 19 expected to 31 actual winners and already has 8 winners this season. He also seems to do really well when running more than 1 horse in a handicap chase, perhaps really wanting to win and having his runners fully tuned up. With 17 wins to 9 expected this makes both Three Stars and Attribution very appealing at the prices.

3.20 Listowel - Champoleon 4pts win @ 2/1 Betfair

5.00 Listowel - Three Stars 4pts win @ 13/2 William Hill

5.00 Listowel - Attribution 4pts win @ 10/1 Bet365

 

 

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4 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

Harvest Festival - Day 1

The Harvest Festival kicks off at Listowel today with the unfortunate news that Coneygree won't be running in the Kerry National later in the week.

Today Champoleon looks a good bet in the maiden hurdle at 3.20 race as Meade has a terrific record in these events as long as his runners aren't debutantes over jumps. Under these conditions his record is 120 wins to 92 expected so 2nd favourite Champoleon looks the value.

Later on I have spoken about De Bromhead's record in handicap chases over the summer season and he runs two in the 5.00 race. He's 19 expected to 31 actual winners and already has 8 winners this season. He also seems to do really well when running more than 1 horse in a handicap chase, perhaps really wanting to win and having his runners fully tuned up. With 17 wins to 9 expected this makes both Three Stars and Attribution very appealing at the prices.

3.20 Listowel - Champoleon 4pts win @ 2/1 Betfair

5.00 Listowel - Three Stars 4pts win @ 13/2 William Hill

5.00 Listowel - Attribution 4pts win @ 10/1 Bet365

 

 

Good to get a winner on the board after a while. Champoleon wins at 11/4. Probably wasn't good enough anyway but Three Stars really gave himself no chance with his jumping, finishing 3rd in the end. Attribution was a non-runner.

Bets: 41

Profit: +44.95

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Harvest Festival - Day 2

Just the one today hoping for some more luck in the maiden hurdles. Classic Theatre was a good bumper horse for De Bromhead and that is a great sign for his prospects as Henry tends to go easy on his horses in those races. First time up over hurdles is when you want to catch them from a value point of view with 30 wins to only 21 expected and he looks a good bet today.

4.30 Listowel - Classic Theatre 4pts win @ 3/1 Bet365

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On 9/11/2017 at 0:58 AM, arsenalfh said:

Harvest Festival - Day 2

Just the one today hoping for some more luck in the maiden hurdles. Classic Theatre was a good bumper horse for De Bromhead and that is a great sign for his prospects as Henry tends to go easy on his horses in those races. First time up over hurdles is when you want to catch them from a value point of view with 30 wins to only 21 expected and he looks a good bet today.

4.30 Listowel - Classic Theatre 4pts win @ 3/1 Bet365

Well backed winner coming in at an SP of 11/10.

Bets: 42

Profit: +56.95pts

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Adams Ale ran a decent race there but I think the jockey was a big negative there. Very ungainly and weak in the saddle so wasn't able to get a proper tune out of the horse. Should be dropped another pound or two and with a better jockey on board Adam's Ale should be one to keep onside next time out.

Yesterday it was frustrating to see Razzmatazz and Go On Go On Go On finish 2nd and 3rd respectively at big prices but good to see them run so well. The former in particular looks interesting at just 3 years of age and taking a massive step forward there. A full sister to l'Abbaye winner Move In Time she looks the type to keep improving and one to look out for particularly as she's in the care of Clive Cox.

Mount Hannover was a non-runner.

Bets: 47

Profit: +36.95pts

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St. Leger Festival - Day 3

In the 4.35 sprint handicap Tropics has shown little this season but down to a mark of 97 the handicapper has given him a chance and he is in great hands trained by Dean Ivory. He should be suited by the extra half furlong at this stage of his career and is worth a bet at a massive price.

4.35 Doncaster - Tropics 4pts win @ 18/1 Bet365

Harvest Festival - Day 6

Codd is really a professional rider running in amateur races and is a massive upgrade to any horse's chance in bumpers. He has 65 wins to 52 expected and should go well on Strucker Hill.

5.50 Listowel - Stucker Hill @ 15/2 StanJames

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St. Leger Festival - Day 4

Two Dean Ivory horses for me in the Portland Handicap particularly with 5 places on offer. Stake Acclaim has been improving all year and was 3rd last time in a competitive race at Windsor. Incredibly every horse that has ran since has franked the form by winning or going close making the form look extremely strong.

Lancelot Du Lac also looks worth a bet with Dettori back on board. He disappointed last time but if returns to the form of his Goodwood win he should be thereabouts.

1.50 Doncaster - Stake Accalim 2pts e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 (5 places)

1.50 Doncaster - Lancelot Du Lac 2pts e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 (5 places)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Cambridgshire Meeting - Day 2

Cox again is a man to follow here with 33 expected wins to 46 actual wins with 3 year olds and older in pattern company. Zonderland put in a personal best last time when just pipped by Lightening Spear in the Celebration Mile on his reappearance, and more can be expected of him now.

The next race on the card gives Thrave a big chance to get off the mark in a maiden. He was quite an expensive purchase and will improve a ton for the run coming from the Candy yard giving him a chance here.

3.35 Newmarket - Zonderland 4pts win @ 7/1 Coral

4.10 Newmarket - Thrave 4pts win @ 3/1 Betfred

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  • 5 months later...

Unfortunately I've been busy over the winter so couldn't keep this going but on the eve of Cheltenham it's time to get this up a running again.

Highlight of the flat campaign was 50/1 winner Bless Him in the Britannia and although the second half of the season was slightly disappointing we still came out with some profit.

Bets: 54

Profit: +24.95pts

I bet to win a set total so from now on we'll play to win 100 points per selection.

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1.30 Cheltenham - Supreme Novices' Hurdle

I do wonder if Ruby Walsh is at full fitness for this years festival after making his comeback just a few days ago. Will he have the strength in the saddle? Will his judgement of pace be spot on? In no other sport would an athlete be considered in peak condition at the pinnacle event in his sport just a few days after returning for injury but I don't think the market is accounting for this. So I'm happy to take on Getabird who looks a little short on form anyway, as Menghli Khan looked flat when chasing him home the last day.

I've come down on Sharjah as the value in this race. Interestingly Patrick Mullins said in a preview that he wasn't very impressed by Kalashnikov's Betfair Hurdle win as they have five novice hurdlers who would beat Bleu Et Rouge with ease. As second string in the Supreme, one of those must be Sharjah. He looked like he was going to win a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Leopardstown with ease before falling at the last and that run puts him just 6lbs off Getabird on RPRs, which doesn't account for how easily he was travelling approaching the finish.

He disappointed the last time and the ground was put down as the reason for the poor performance. But I actually think the belief that he needs good ground will be a benefit for him here. There's no doubt that you need to be wide on the hurdles track on the Old Course to have a chance in these conditions and Townend might just travel widest of all as he will be desperate to get the best ground possible for this horse. This could be a massive advantage for him in a big field and I really think the heavy ground horses will be overbet today as the track is always in great condition at Cheltenham. Despite their belief that he needs good ground, Sharjah actually won on heavy ground at Gowran Park which is one of the most testing tracks around when it gets wet.

Given the form of his Leopardstown run, the number of heavy ground horses being overbet and the likelihood of Sharjah being well placed out wide there looks to be some good value in his price today.

4pts - Sharjah each-way @ 20/1 Bet365 (4 Places)

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2.10 Cheltenham - Arkle Novices' Chase

Cracking race with two high class hurdlers and an upcoming novice chaser. Saint Calvados looks short at the prices as the heavy ground horses get overbet. The Irish horses will be used to ground worse than this and both Footpad and Petit Mouchoir just look more talented individuals as shown by their hurdles form.

I think Petit Mouchoir is being underrated here considerably. He was a dual Grade 1 winner over hurdles and possibly could have won the Fighting Fifth as well if not for falling at the second last. Even at Cheltenham he beat Footpad comfortably despite jumping poorly and going too hard in front. Footpad did beat him by 5L last time at Leopardstown but Petit Mouchoir hit the first two flights and was given a tame ride coming back off a setback so I expect him to improve considerably for the run. There are no signs that he will be worse over the larger obstacles and de Bromhead has a terrific record at the festival with a 30% strike rate at hitting the frame, which is higher than Mullins and second only to Elliott out of the big trainers.

22pts - Petit Mouchoir to win @ 9/2 Coral

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2.50 Cheltenham - Ultima Handicap Chase

Colin Tizzard has an excellent record with handicap chasers in these high class events (24 wins to 12 expected at the Betfair SP) and a great record at getting horses back after some poor runs. He often uses the wind op in these cases which was seen to great success with Cue Card and he's also been responsible for two first time up winners since the new rule about declaring wind ops came into affect.

Sizing Codelco has been disappointing this season but is down to a mark of 154 from 160 and comes here after having a wind op. Again I think he might be underrated as his best form in Britain has come in good conditions but he has form from Ireland in soft ground which is usually much worse than what you would experience at Cheltenham in March. On top of that Robbie Power takes the ride who is one of the most underappreciated jockeys by the market so there's enough here to believe this horse should be shorter than 40/1.

2pts - Sizing Codelco each-way @ 40/1 William Hill (4 Places)

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4.50 Cheltenham - National Hunt Chase

You get a wide range of abilities when looking at jockeys in these amateur races so it's important to have a good pilot on board. Unfortunately the market has the top jockeys covered and there is little value in backing Jamie Codd, Barry O'Neill or Paddy Mullins while the likes of Derek O'Connor are considerably overbet looking at the data. So what jockeys are underrated?

The two that strike out in the data are Richard Deegan and James King. The former has 13 wins to 6 expected using Betfair SP when riding over hurdles or fences while the latter has 9 winners to 5 expected. Both Keepers Hill and Reigning Supreme are completely unexposed and with these two pilots jocked up, should run better than their odds suggest where you can get around 30 on the exchanges.

5pts - Keeper Hill to win @ 20/1 SportingBet

3.5pts - Reigning Supreme to win @ 28/1 SkyBet

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1.30 Cheltenham - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

Samcro looks very short on what he has done so far. I would have expected him to be odds against and Next Destination will be stiff opposition particularly with Ruby showing no ill effects following his injury.

Like I said at the beginning of this thread I will generally be taking a data driven approach here to betting and my systems have highlighted to good bets at bigger prices. Vision Des Flos was a taking winner last time out and is the third highest rated horse on RPRs just 4lbs off the hot favourite Samcro. However it's the jockey booking that really catches the eye as the market really underrates Power when he takes over a horse for the first time with the Irishman winning 87 times when the market expects just 69. He's worth an each-way bet against the favourite as is Coolanly who runs for a trainer who's horses are underrated fresh. O'Brien has racked up 53 wins to just 40 expected when his horses run after a 90 day or longer break.

5pts - Vision Des Flos eacy-way @ 16/1 Bet365

0.7pts - Coolanly each-way @ 125/1 Betfred

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2.10 Cheltenham - RSA Novices' Chase

I've quite liked Presenting Percy the whole season but he looks nothing better than the right price at 11/4. I also like Monalee but I would have loved to see him in the JLT and use his jumping from the front. Henry's horses are generally quite keen going and don't stay too well (his record over shorter with chasers is much better) so it's a shame to see him line up here.

In the end I came down on Allysson Monterg at a massive price. Hobson's runners tend to come on a ton for their first experience over fences so he should take a massive step forward here and looks a bit of value.

1.5pts - Allysson Monterg to win @ 66/1 Bet365

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4.50 Cheltenham - Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Henderson is probably the man to follow in this race with Style De Garde and top jockey Nico de Boinville on board. Henderson usually leaves a bit more in the tank than the market expects on handicap hurdle with 59 wins to 43 expected and at 14/1 there looks to be a bit of juice in his price.

5.75pts - Style De Garde each-way @ 14/1 William Hill

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5.30 Cheltenham - Champion Bumper

Few bets here for me best of which is Didtheyleaveuoutto who has looked a high class bumper horse showing a devastating turn off foot to win twice this season. It's a real surprise that he has been such a drifter but the ground doesn't look too bad at all and he's starting to look a very big price; especially as Gifford has a great record with bumper horses excluding their debuts with 13 wins to 6 expected.

Mercy Mercy Me also looks one that has been overlooked by the market coming off a break for Fergal O'Brien who as mentioned earlier has 53 wins to 40 expected when horses are coming off breaks of 90 days or more. O'Brien has had a lot of bumper winners this season so the fact he is his only runner here might also be significant.

6.25pts - Didtheyleaveuotto to win @ 16/1 Betfair

4pts - Mercy Mercy Me to win @ 25/1 SkyBet

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2.10 Cheltenham - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

Delta Work had been running in smart company before progressing well in handicaps to qualify for today's final. His mark of 139 is the same rating he runs off in Ireland looks very generous as the handicapper usually adds a couple of pounds to Irish hurdlers to even the playing field. With the Elliott and Russell combination teaming up again Delta Work looks to be a bit of value.

8.4pts - Delta Work each-way @ 10/1 SkyBet (6 places)

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3.30 Cheltenham - Stayers' Hurdle

I don't like Yanworth in the stayers as he's an erratic jumper, King horses are usually overrated by the market and he might not even be good enough. Unowhatimeanharry is exposed now at this level and Bacardys needs to improve a ton. I like Supasundae and he's probably a little big at 8/1 as an improver and the form of the Irish Champion may get underestimated by the market after Faugheen's flop. But at 7/2 Sam Spinner has to be the better value. Great jumper, won't mind conditions, really progressive and O'Keefe does pretty well with his hurdlers (15 wins to 13 expected).

29pts - Sam Spinner to win @ 7/2 BlackType

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4.10 Cheltenham - Plate Handicap Chase

Again going back to the Power taking over to ride for the first time angle with the Irishman winning 87 times when the market expects just 69 under these circumstances. On top of that Viconte Du Noyer is down below his last winning mark and has had a wind op which has revived plenty of Tizzard horses in recent times. He's worth an each-way bet at massive prices.

2pts - Viconte Du Noyer each-way @ 40/1 Bet365 (5 Places)

5.30 Cheltenham - Kim Muir Handicap Chase

In the Kim Muir Band Of Blood is ridden by one of the better amateurs who might be underrated (16 wins 12.6 expected in chases) and better trainers (Newland 94 wins 75 expected in handicap chases) so he'll do for me. He's progressed well this season winning on his last two starts and is worth a bet at double figure prices to continue on this run for a duo who are generally underestimated by the market.

8.4pts - Band Of Blood each-way @ 10/1 SkyBet (5 places)

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