Premier League Ante-Post 2017-2018

[andrewcalo]

Lol @Mindfulness I just think that going down one season then catapulting straight back up this season is a fine thing to achieve and a statement of intent. I can see a lot of close games and draws.

They should at least get above the likes of your Stokes and your Crystal Palaces etc I'd think.

[Mindfulness]

1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

Lol @Mindfulness I just think that going down one season then catapulting straight back up this season is a fine thing to achieve and a statement of intent. I can see a lot of close games and draws.

They should at least get above the likes of your Stokes and your Crystal Palaces etc I'd think.

Are you gonna make a Newcastle ante-post play based on this idea?

[StevieDay1983]

2 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

Ahah...

Anyone else think Chelsea are gonna implode again this year?

And Newcastle to finish number one?

Chelsea are a strange one. It seemed almost certain Conte would move on at one point and then it's taken a couple of months after speculation of his departure for them to tie him down to a new contract. Not bagging Lukaku hurt them. You can see that. They went for the quick rebound move with Morata but that's not looking like materialising either. It seems Diego Costa and Conte are not exactly getting on so it begs the question what will they do for a front man next season? If Costa stays then how long will it be before him and Conte come to blows? If Costa goes then who will they sign? All of Europe's top strikers are slowly committing their futures to one club or another and they are running out of options. Would Zlatan be a shout out of nowhere? Would he be enough? I'd be worried if I was a Chelsea fan. I'm not convinced the likes of Alonso and Moses will repeat their form again either. They should still finish top four but it's a risky one.

Regarding Tottenham and Newcastle. The Wembley factor is a massive one. I'm not sure losing Walker will be as hurtful as some think. Trippier is far from the finished article but he's not a bad worst case scenario. Newcastle, it seems all is not well again. The board are not backing Benitez in the transfer market. They should learn. Last summer they backed him and he sealed promotion. Back him this summer and he'll do well this season. Unfortunately, I can see them struggling against the drop if he's not backed.

[Mindfulness]

2 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

Ahah...

Anyone else think Chelsea are gonna implode again this year?

And Newcastle to finish number one?

Not now that Conte has signed an improved contract, that was the main inflection point for them this summer. Their transfer business has been good so far, I especially like the signing of Rudiger as he allows you to transition smoothly between a back 3 and a back 4 in-game. This will give Chelsea an added tactical flexibility this year. Defensively they will be sound once again.

Their biggest problem will be replacing Costa as he really is the complete no.9. I don't see many, if any available that possess his qualities as a centre-forward, he was instrumental in their attacking game last year with his awareness and movement.

[andrewcalo]

Regarding Chelsea- I am picking up both a kind of dysfunctional family vibe from them and also a sort of laziness and spoiltness and even childishness in the way they have been since winning last season. and this night sound ridiculous but I think they might refuse to perform and Conte ends up the shock firing of the season. The crazy bastard never stops giving his team grief and i thnk its gotta start pissing them off.

[Mindfulness]

14 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

Regarding Chelsea- I am picking up both a kind of dysfunctional family vibe from them and also a sort of laziness and spoiltness and even childishness in the way they have been since winning last season. and this night sound ridiculous but I think they might refuse to perform and Conte ends up the shock firing of the season. The crazy bastard never stops giving his team grief and i thnk its gotta start pissing them off.

I thought they might have these issues last season but it didn't fully materialise (despite Costa crisis). It's true that Conte drives his teams to the very limits and of course Mourinho found out his players were only so motivated the year after he won the title with them. I agree with you that there's definitely an underlying volatility at Chelsea but how do we convert this into a bet? Markets are already extremely sceptical of Chelsea's title ambitions, laying them in EPL winners market is all risk for little reward.

[Pep004]

Anyone else think that Walker won't really fit into the City team? It's true that he's physically  strong and fast, but what about the ball control? Especially for Guardiola's "inside" full backs? I didn't follow him close enough on last season, but I am really not sure about him. 

[andrewcalo]

I am in the USA and watched the highlights of the Man U v Man City game yesterday. They're both playing over here. Walker did okay. Man City might not have solved their keeper problems though. Ederson the new signing let both goals in through stupid errors and the scum won two nil. He looked out of place.

[Mindfulness]

7 hours ago, Pep004 said:

Anyone else think that Walker won't really fit into the City team? It's true that he's physically  strong and fast, but what about the ball control? Especially for Guardiola's "inside" full backs? I didn't follow him close enough on last season, but I am really not sure about him. 

His close control under pressure is not bad, not Xavi or Messi levels but good enough imo. His vision and passing range is pretty good aswell so he should be able to handle transitions into the DM zone when required. For me it's a very good signing, Pep will have learnt from his first year in England and realised that technique is not the be all and end all here.

 

[Mindfulness]

EPL – Winner 2017/2018

Manchester Utd @ 4.8 (Betfair Exchange)

I like this play for a number of reasons, primarily I feel it has the potential to be a good trade.

Fixtures alone are never a good barometer of how a team will actually perform but out of ‘the big 7’ Man Utd have surely been dealt the strongest hand in the opening rounds of the campaign: West Ham (H), Swansea (A), Leicester (H), Stoke City (A). They avoid all big 7 competitors and all newly promoted teams so they avoid both the strongest teams and the harsh shut up shop sides in the opening 4 rounds. The opening game against West Ham is probably the toughest on paper.

For me Man City are rightly favourites for EPL title this season but 2.9 holds no value and seems to be accurate price all things considered. They have pretty much done their main transfer business this window and I would be surprised if they made some kind of mega acquisition which shortened their price further. Teams like Liverpool and Arsenal could still shed top players while Man Utd will retain the players they have at a minimum and perhaps strengthen further before the window has closed.  

Realistically I believe the EPL winner will come from one of the Manchester clubs or Chelsea. The problem with Chelsea is that they face UCL football this season so their league form will be compromised relative to last year. For City the schedule dynamic is unchanged while Man Utd’s league form will probably benefit with the switch from UEL to UCL.

Broadly, Man Utd have 25% - 35% chance of winning EPL this season imo so we’re talking 2.86 – 4.00 odds-wise. We’ll say 3.4 is the median so 4.8 looks to be clear value from said perspective.

Ultimately I have made this selection with a view to cashing it out after the opening rounds but generally speaking it offers some long term value anyway. Competition for EPL crown is fierce but backing Man Utd seems to be a logical play at this point. Will be interested to see how things develop in the opening rounds.

Edited July 29, 2017 by Mindfulness

[Mindfulness]

On 12/06/2017 at 0:30 PM, Tiffy said:

@Mindfulness

Dont forget that when Parrish says "Long term" he means 6 months max!

Jokes on you because it's 11 weeks actually, keep up.

 

[Tiffy]

56 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

Jokes on you because it's 11 weeks actually, keep up.

 

Hello stranger You've gone a bit quiet recently?

Well it just shows the madness of our Football. Personally I thought he was doing a great job!! and I have been enjoying some great banter with the Palace fans that I know. We all said that FDB would be sacked soon, & DF (conveniently installed as Director of Football) is on hand to to take over & turn them back into the team they used to be.

In fact Dougie phoned me yesterday for some advice.....

DF - Hi Tiffy, I need to freshen up training, the lads have gone a bit stale, and Big Frank is too busy in the Chairmans office, do you have any suggestions?

ME - Dustbins, Dougie

DF- Dustbins, you say?

ME- Yes, set them up at training, and the players can chip the ball over them, pass the ball through them & dribble the ball around them!

DF- That's a great idea, I'll try it!

The next day he phones me back

DF- Hey Tiffy, I tried what you suggested, we are in the middle of the training session now, but there is only one problem

ME- What's that?

DF- The Dustbins are winning 3-0!!!!

 I'm here all week.....................

On the flip side, Brighton were superb on Saturday against West Brom. But it is a long, long season, so there will be many more twists & turns.

Who would like for the job permanently?

Edited September 11, 2017 by Tiffy

[Mindfulness]

1 hour ago, Tiffy said:

Who would like for the job permanently?

By permanently do you mean the next 4 fixtures?

I want the next manager to be someone who can win some games, maybe, get the team, to score a goal.

 

[Tiffy]

3 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

By permanently do you mean the next 4 fixtures?

I want the next manager to be someone who can win some games, maybe, get the team, to score a goal.

 

Sounds like you need Chris Hughton then!

Well as permanently as it gents at Selhurst. They don't eve r last more than 6 months do they? Going back a few seasons, Didn't Dougie lose his first 4 games, then got them up, beating Brighton in the play offs?

Palace have gone through so many managers, there can't be many left.

They have now tried the Johnny Foreigner route, so probably won't be doing that again.

Fascinating stuff though, so early on in the season. 

I think we need a "New Managers" thread @StevieDay1983

 

[StevieDay1983]

Great idea @Tiffy! I'm on it!

[Tiffy]

7 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Great idea @Tiffy! I'm on it!

Think that there will need to be a subsection just for the Palace tho!

[Mindfulness]

@Tiffy

Serious question: In percentage terms what do you honestly think Brighton's chances of getting relegated are this season?

 

[Tiffy]

On 22/10/2017 at 11:08 PM, Mindfulness said:

@Tiffy

Serious question: In percentage terms what do you honestly think Brighton's chances of getting relegated are this season?

 

I'm not sure really. I don't know if I can work it out into percentage terms (not clever enough!)

From how we have started the season, our form suggests we will avoid the drop. I don't think any relegated team in previous seasons has done as well as we have after 9 games.

I have been impressed with our style of play. Typical Hughton really, well organised, hard to beat, good shape, preserve the point you start with & look to nick all 3. Even the games that we have lost, we have done reasonably well, and have not conceded more than 2 against Arsenal, Man City & Leicester. (Our only 3 defeats)

We are taking points off the teams around us, and if we can continue like this, and acan dd a striker in January, then I can't see us going down. There are other teams on the slide, and I think it will be harder for them to arrest their downward spirals. (As was the case with Villa & Sunderland last season)

Bournemouth should reverted to type, Huddersfield were never would beaters last season, Wet Sham are struggling without Payet, and with their new stadium. Stoke and West Brom could be running out of steam too. 

Brighton has a fantastic Chairman,  a maths genius who uses algorythims when selecting players to buy. He hasn't bought a turkey yet! 

I always look at a table, and if a team has less points than games played, they aren't doing well in my opinion. We have Played 9, gained 11 points (unlucky too not to have 4 more points from the Watford & Everton games). We average 1.2 points per game, so we should end the season with 39 points if we can carry on as we are. That should be enough to keep us safe. And I can't see any reason for it to not carry on.

Of our games played,in the current table, our points gained

Top 6 - P3 PTS1

Mid table - P2 PTS 6

Bottom 6 -  P4 PTS 4

So in percentage terms, would that equate to 60-70% chance of us staying up? 

[Tiffy]

So in percentage terms, would that equate to 60-70% chance of us staying up?

@Mindfulness

You didn't spot my deliberate mistake (ahem)

Just doing the maths again

If we average 1.2 pts per game, over 38 games that will equal 46 pts

Based on past seasons, that will put us anywhere between 8th - 13th. So, would that be 100% chance of us staying up?

I suppose it would, based on the team performing at their current level.

[Mindfulness]

31 minutes ago, Tiffy said:

So in percentage terms, would that equate to 60-70% chance of us staying up?

@Mindfulness

You didn't spot my deliberate mistake (ahem)

Just doing the maths again

If we average 1.2 pts per game, over 38 games that will equal 46 pts

Based on past seasons, that will put us anywhere between 8th - 13th. So, would that be 100% chance of us staying up?

I suppose it would, based on the team performing at their current level.

Thanks for replying.

It is hard to put a number on these things sometimes, Brighton have performed well so far and a lot of stats back this up - I don't think you have been flukey.

Really I want to know whether you think this can be sustained?

I agree with you that Hughton is shrewd with his purchases, he knows how to organise a team and has good experience. My main concern is that you really lack firepower and at some point that may start to show. A barren spell maybe difficult to overcome as it will drain confidence and spirit (which is high for now) and Hughton may not have a plan b.

Brighton are 3.5 for relegation right now so markets are basically saying you only have a 28.6% chance of getting relegated this season. It just seems strange to me as you are only 3pts off the relegation zone with 29 games to play + weaker squad and less EPL experience than the teams below you.

Am I just being bitter and biased here or is this clear value play???

 

[nikosolution]

Do you know a free/paid channel on a telegram with tips from premier league?! Send me priv if you know! Thank you

[Tiffy]

22 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

Thanks for replying.

It is hard to put a number on these things sometimes, Brighton have performed well so far and a lot of stats back this up - I don't think you have been flukey.

Really I want to know whether you think this can be sustained?

Well, there is the million dollar question! And I think it can, for the following reasons.

Brighton are consistent, much more so than with any other manager in the past. Last season we didn't hit a barren spell. We just plodded in the same manner all season. Yes we lack firepower, but expect that to changed in January.  We have carried on from last season, and improved.

Does Hughton have a plan B? Well, who knows, his plan A works well, and there is good back up on the bench. He surprised me against WHU , by starting with Bong and Izquierdo, meaning that he was planning to play a more attacking game away from home. Probably sensing that the game was there for the taking if we got the first goal. 

I agree with you that Hughton is shrewd with his purchases, he knows how to organise a team and has good experience. My main concern is that you really lack firepower and at some point that may start to show. A barren spell maybe difficult to overcome as it will drain confidence and spirit (which is high for now) and Hughton may not have a plan b.

Brighton are 3.5 for relegation right now so markets are basically saying you only have a 28.6% chance of getting relegated this season. It just seems strange to me as you are only 3pts off the relegation zone with 29 games to play + weaker squad and less EPL experience than the teams below you.

Am I just being bitter and biased here or is this clear value play???

Haha, yes, I think you have hit the nail on the head, and letting your emotions get to you. Is it value? I don't know, perhaps? If you think it's value, then go for it, it may well happen.

I think there is more chance of that, than your antepost "Palace in the top  6 " bet that you had. But at the time it was a reasonable choice, (and the price shortened) even before the season had begun.

I wouldn't back us to go down at 3.5, or to stay up at 1.36. You are right, the season is only a quarter gone, and there are 29 games left. Although we are 3 points off relegationn, we are 4 points off a European place.

I really think that you need to start looking at Brighton with the glass half full, and leave those rose tinted specs off when backing Palace.

So, this reply probably doesn't help, but I think we will stay up.(just) And I think we can maintain consistency.

 

 

 

[Mindfulness]

@Tiffy

I never have rose tinted specs when backing Palace, business is business and price is the only thing that matters when I make a play. I've only backed Palace twice this season: +0.50 @ Burnley and +0.75 @ Newcastle, both were good selections but had no luck whatsoever. Note how many times I warn people off backing us in certain situations over the years.

Palace top 10 finish @ 7.00 was also a good selection, not many could have foreseen the shower of shit circus that was to follow. When you make long odds bets, lots will crash and burn, that one just crashed and burnt spectacularly.

Appreciate your input on Brighton but I am still none the wiser. It's a difficult one to figure out but that's ante-post betting for you - it's all about timing and decisions aren't as clear as match betting in my experience.

 

[Tiffy]

11 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

@Tiffy

I never have rose tinted specs when backing Palace, business is business and price is the only thing that matters when I make a play. I've only backed Palace twice this season: +0.50 @ Burnley and +0.75 @ Newcastle, both were good selections but had no luck whatsoever. Note how many times I warn people off backing us in certain situations over the years.

Palace top 10 finish @ 7.00 was also a good selection, not many could have foreseen the shower of shit circus that was to follow. When you make long odds bets, lots will crash and burn, that one just crashed and burnt spectacularly.

Appreciate your input on Brighton but I am still none the wiser. It's a difficult one to figure out but that's ante-post betting for you - it's all about timing and decisions aren't as clear as match betting in my experience.

 

Yes I agree, antepost is very tricky. I've done a couple long shot accas, more for fun really. 

I'm always happy to give my input on the Albion, and I'm now going to see if I end up looking clever or a plonker by the end of the season!

Good luck against Wet Spam tmrw, I am tempted to go for BTTS, as it is a must win for both teams.