Xtc12 Posted July 2, 2017 Author Share Posted July 2, 2017 Day 1 Staking Plan 3, 2, 1, 4, for a total outlay of 10 Pts We had 1 winner: US Navy Flag 4 Pts @ 13\2 returned 30 Total Returns for the day 30 for a day 1 profit of 20 Pts. Total Profit for month: 20 Pts Total Profit: 105.88 Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 3, 2017 Author Share Posted July 3, 2017 Day 2 Staking Plan 3, NR. 2, 1, 4, 5, 5 for a total outlay of 20 Pts We had 2 winners Burrows Lane 5 Pts @ 6\4 returned 12.50 Mister Blue Sky 5 Pts @ 9\2 returned 27.50 Total Returns for the day 40 for a day 2 profit of 20 Pts. Total Profit for month: 40 Pts Total Profit: 125.88 corky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 3, 2017 Author Share Posted July 3, 2017 I have back tested this system/staking plan back to August. The worst month turned out to be June where we had 85.88 Pts profit, the best January 758.70 Pts profit. Yes, 11 months profit, 327 days profit out of 334 days. August : 743.95 Pts 31\31 September : 520.72 Pts 29\30 (-390) October : 532.77 Pts 31\31 November : 699.74 Pts 30\30 December : 515.97 Pts 30\31 (-31.80) January : 758.70 Pts 31\31 February : 348.28 Pts 27\28 (-44.65) March : 131.18 Pts 29\31 (-105.66 & -122.36) April : 729.96 Pts 30\30 May : 516.67 Pts 31\31 June : 85.88 Pts 28\30 (-51.90 & -408.17) This gives a total profit of 5583.82 Pts. September Loss came on 12th where there was 33 bets with 2 winners 5\4 and 2\1 December Loss came on 23rd when there was only one meeting Dundalk, 8 bets where there was 1 winner 11\10 February Loss came on the 21st where there was 19 bets which started with 13 losers in a row. 3 winners 13\8, 7\2, and 8\11 March had 2 Losses on the 12th and 23rd. 12th had 20 bets, 4 winners, 4\11, 1\7, 2\1 and 4\5. On the 23rd we had 33 bets with 7 winners 1\3, 1\9, 4\5, 6\4, 8\11, 11\8 and in the last race 6\1 which saved a loss of 280 Pts. Now I need to decide do I carry this out or not. The long days could be a problem getting to a computer or an office for 6/7 hours. There were only about 40 days that the day went over 9 bets. What should the bank be ? Should it be the biggest loss (408) Double the biggest loss (816) Should the bank be big enough to cover all races in a day when we may not have a winner. So lets say 10 meetings with on average 7 races per meeting. To cover the 70 races the bank needs to be 2485. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 Great results and i'm sure some onlookers will give it a crack. When we were talking about it last week I personally thought a bank of about 1000pts would be the way to go. How does it work on a busy day like Saturday when races go off every two minutes and often overlap? I suppose you have to back both selections to cover all possibilities. Not sure if you were going to do the Naps, I have put all of the Naps up from March in another thread and sent you the sheet but not sure if you received it. Well done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 5, 2017 Author Share Posted July 5, 2017 Got that email BH working on it at the moment. I have started the naps myself since the 25th June and hold a 20 Pt profit. On the Saturday yes you would have to cover both races where there might be a clash. Decision time. BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 5, 2017 Author Share Posted July 5, 2017 Day 3 Staking Plan 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 5, 6, 7 for a total outlay of 54 Pts We had 2 winners Winston C 8 Pts @ 5\2 returned 28 Destroyer 7 Pts @ 11\4 returned 26.25 Total Returns for the day 54.25 for a day 3 profit of 0.25 Pts. Total Profit for month: 40.25 Pts Total Profit: 126.13 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 5, 2017 Author Share Posted July 5, 2017 Day 4 Staking Plan 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 13, 13, 14, 15, for a total outlay of 151 Pts We had 5 winners Another Eclipse 6 Pts @ 2\5 returned 8.40 Sharp Defence 10 Pts @ 7\2 returned 45 Barraquero 15 Pts @ 7\4 returned 41.25 Vosne Romance 13 Pts @ 2\7 returned 16.71 Degooch 15 Pts @ 9\2 returned 82.50 Total Returns for the day 193.86 for a day 4 profit of 42.86 Pts. Total Profit for month: 83.11 Pts Total Profit: 168.99 Pts BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 5, 2017 Author Share Posted July 5, 2017 Day 5 Staking Plan 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, for a total outlay of 41 Pts We had 2 winners Welcome Ben 5 Pts @ 6\4 returned 12.50 Spice Girl 8 Pts @ 9\2 returned 44 Total Returns for the day 56.50 for a day 5 profit of 15.50 Pts. Total Profit for month: 98.61 Pts Total Profit: 184.49 Pts Pirate53 and BillyHills 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 5, 2017 Author Share Posted July 5, 2017 Ok I have finished the naps going back to the start of March. I have used the same staking strategy but I have calculated over the full time of the naps and also monthly. The difference is that if I treat it as a complete bet there is a chance that we could break the bank while if I treat it as a monthly bet the last day could be used as a stop gap reducing our losses. To use the system as complete we would be sitting on a 166.65 Pt profit from March 1st until Dawerann running in Perth today. At one stage it took us from the 24th May until the 13th June to make a profit of 2.55 Pts. (Don't forget when you make a profit you start again). If we take it monthly and use the last day as a stop gap, in case we are on a losing run we would have a profit of 161.73 Pts. This would have included a loss in May of 6.52. The monthly totals were as follows: March : 51.76 April : 51.10 May : -6.52 (This includes a loss over the last 8 days of 21.7 Pts) June : 65.39 I have actually started backing the naps since the 25th June and will continue doing it monthly. I will take the last 6 days of June into July. Thanks BH and Punters Lounge Horse Racing Tips, keep picking the winners - onwards and upwards. Hope you won't mind if I start a thread for the naps backdating to the 25th. corky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 No probs mate, it makes interesting reading. ...and i'm sure plenty of members find it useful. Xtc12 and corky 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 I find this really interesting. Only problems I can see is that a) placing the bets manually would be impossible as your psyche wouldn't allow you to! and b) you'd have no bookie accounts left after a couple of months. The only way (imo) that this can work is if its automated on Betfair. Any Excel buffs out there that can write a trigger spreadsheet for Gruss? The other thing is bank size. If a set of circumstances can happen in theory, then one day it surely will. With that in mind I think a bank of 3000 pts would be required. Having said that, I'd give it a go. Xtc12 and BillyHills 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Answering the second part of your query first; The stake are not that high really and I reckon you would get the bets on with Betfair, minus a bit of commission. Its not like some loss recovery systems where your putting 4 figures on. I tend to agree with you about actually being brave enough to keep going during a long losing run. I personally would find this difficult hence why most of my staking plans have a stop loss. Maybe this could be implemented? I'm sure some punters would have no problem in splitting the emotion side from their punting lives. Pirate53 and Xtc12 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 7, 2017 Author Share Posted July 7, 2017 I think for the time being I will stick with the Naps as it is only one bet a day. A bank of 496 will cover me for having no winners in any month. Probably two accounts should cover me even though the highest bet will be 31 Pts. If a bookmaker cannot take a bet of £31 he should not be a bookie. . As BH says : 21 hours ago, BillyHills said: he stake are not that high really and I reckon you would get the bets on with Betfair, minus a bit of commission. Its not like some loss recovery systems where your putting 4 figures on. the stakes are not that high really. Doing the naps using the last day as a stop-loss is the way to go. 22 hours ago, Pirate53 said: I find this really interesting. Only problems I can see is that a) placing the bets manually would be impossible as your psyche wouldn't allow you to! and b) you'd have no bookie accounts left after a couple of months. The thing about placing the bets manually is that you would need to get over the fear of losing and trust the system (probably easier said than done when we had a loss of 408 pts in a day). 22 hours ago, Pirate53 said: If a set of circumstances can happen in theory, then one day it surely will. These losses can come at any time and the danger is when you start a system, will we come in at one of these rare loss days, which would also be a disaster for the confidence. I will continue to log the stats for each day here and will start a new thread for the Naps, back dated to the 25th June. My profit depends on you BH, keep them coming. Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Xtc12 said: My profit depends on you BH, keep them coming. No pressure then? My selections are purely down to a ratings method I use which without giving too much away does bias towards class more than anything. The Nap is a selection that is well ahead of the other runners in certain criteria and still represents a bit of value when the market is formed at around 6pm the day before. Xtc12 and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 7, 2017 Author Share Posted July 7, 2017 (edited) Day 6 Staking Plan 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 6, for a total outlay of 21 Pts We had 2 winners Glorvina 4 Pts @ 8\11 returned 6.90 Onlyfoolsownhorses 6 Pts @ 4\1 returned 30 Total Returns for the day 36.90 for a day 6 profit of 15.90 Pts. Total Profit for month: 114.51 Pts Total Profit since start of June: 200.39 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5698.33 Pts Edited July 7, 2017 by Xtc12 add profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 7, 2017 Author Share Posted July 7, 2017 Day 7 Staking Plan 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9 for a total outlay of 51 Pts We had 3 winners Buble 1 Pt @ 11\10 returned 2.10 Braqueur 6 Pts @ 1\4 returned 7.50 Spark Plug 9 Pts @ 4\1 returned 45 Total Returns for the day 54.60 for a day 7 profit of 3.60 Pts. Total Profit for month: 118.11 Pts Total Profit since start of June: 203.99 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5701.93 Pts BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 9, 2017 Author Share Posted July 9, 2017 Will need a bit of time to do yesterdays as it was a very strange day. 12 winners, many seconds and an overall loss, a big loss. Just goes to show the dangers of a staking plan with an increase on loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Saturdays can be a nightmare! Overall the selections just scraped a profit to level stakes but that includes quite a few placed EW bets and lots of winners with good early prices. Had a lot of NR's too!! Soooo many near misses yesterday, very frustrating to say the least but it shows we are on the right path. NB: Just to say if anyone was wondering, NR's are sometimes replaced if known about early enough. Just depends on when they get declared. My remit is to provide a selection in every race so I do when I can. Edit: If you think Saturday was bad, I wouldn't even look at Sunday!!! Double Disaster! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 9, 2017 Author Share Posted July 9, 2017 Day 8 Staking Plan 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, NR, 9, 10, 11, 8, 9. NR, 10. 11. 9. 10 NR, 11, 12, 12, 13, 11, 12, 13, NR, 14, NR, NR, NR, 15, 12, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 14, 15, 15, 16, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 22, 23, 24 for a total outlay of 673 Pts We had 12 winners Milton Road 6 Pts @ 4\5 returned 10.80 Music Box 11 Pts @ 7\2 returned 49.50 Camelback 11 Pts @ 15\8 returned 31.62 Belle Boyd 12 Pts @ 8\13 returned 19.38 Nearly Caught 13 Pts @ 6\4 returned 32.50 Less of That 15 Pts @ 9\4 returned 48.75 Jive Talking 12 Pts @ 5\4 returned 27 Steamboat Quay 16 Pts @ 13\8 returned 42 Mrs Gallagher 15 Pts @ 2\5 returned 21 Rumshak 16 Pts @ 2\1 returned 48 Tower Bridge 24 Pts @ 5\4 returned 54 Nadaitak 24 Pts @ 5\4 returned 54 Total Returns for the day 437.55 for a day 8 loss of 235.45 Pts. Total Loss for month: 117.34 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 31.46 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5466.48Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 9, 2017 Author Share Posted July 9, 2017 8 hours ago, BillyHills said: Edit: If you think Saturday was bad, I wouldn't even look at Sunday!!! Double Disaster! Yes you are dead right there BH This will really put July to the test. Day 9 Staking Plan 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, for a total outlay of 265 Pts We had 2 winners Pouvoir Magique 2 Pts @ 1\12 returned 2.16 Work In Progress 12 Pts @ 8\11 returned 20.72 Total Returns for the day 22.88 for a day 9 loss of 242.12 Pts Total Loss for month: 359.46 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 273.58 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5224.36 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 11, 2017 Author Share Posted July 11, 2017 Day 10 Staking Plan 3, for a total outlay of 3 Pts We had 1 winner Another Batt 3 Pts @ 5\6 returned 5.50 Total Returns for the day 5.50 for a day 10 profit of 2.5 Pts Total Loss for month: 356.96 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 271.08 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5226.86 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 11, 2017 Author Share Posted July 11, 2017 Day 11 Staking Plan 3, for a total outlay of 3 Pts We had 1 winner Bogsnog 3 Pts @ 5\1 returned 18 Total Returns for the day 18 for a day 11 profit of 15Pts Total Loss for month: 341.96 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 256.08 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5241.86 Pts corky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 Day 12 Staking Plan 3, for a total outlay of 3 Pts We had 1 winner Chatburn 3 Pts @ 4\6 returned 5 Total Returns for the day 5 for a day 12 profit of 2 Pts Total Loss for month: 339.96 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 254.08 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5243.86 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 14, 2017 Author Share Posted July 14, 2017 Day 13 Staking Plan 3, for a total outlay of 3 Pts We had 1 winner Kynren 3 Pts @ 4\5 returned 5.40 Total Returns for the day 5.40 for a day 13 profit of 2.4 Pts Total Loss for month: 337.56 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 251.68 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5246.26 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 14, 2017 Author Share Posted July 14, 2017 Day 14 Staking Plan 3, 2. 1, 4 for a total outlay of 10 Pts We had 2 winner One Minute 2 Pts @ 11\10 returned 4.20 Clemmie 4 Pts @ 11\8 returned 9.50 Total Returns for the day 13.70 for a day 14 profit of 3.70 Pts Total Loss for month: 333.86 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 247.98 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5249.96 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 17, 2017 Author Share Posted July 17, 2017 Day 16 Staking Plan 3, 2. for a total outlay of 5 Pts We had 1 winner Father Mattie 2 Pts @ 11\2 returned 13 Total Returns for the day 13. for a day 16 profit of 8 Pts Total Loss for month: 325.86 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 239.98 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5257.96 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 17, 2017 Author Share Posted July 17, 2017 Day 17 Staking Plan 3, 2. NR, 1, 4, 5, for a total outlay of 15 Pts We had 2 winners Paradwys 1 Pt @ 9\4 returned 3.25 Major Valentine 5 Pts @ 2\1 returned 15 Total Returns for the day 18.25. for a day 17 profit of 3.25 Pts Total Loss for month: 322.61 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 236.73 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5261.21 Pts corky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 19, 2017 Author Share Posted July 19, 2017 Day 19 Staking Plan 3, 2. 1, for a total outlay of 6 Pts We had 2 winners Reflect Alexander 2 Pts @ 4\5 returned 3.60 So Sleek 1 Pt @ 11\4 returned 3.75 Total Returns for the day 7.35. for a day 19 profit of 1.35 Pts Total Loss for month: 321.26 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 235.38 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5262.56 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 Day 20 Staking Plan 3, 2. for a total outlay of 5 Pts We had 1 winner Demons Rock 2 Pts @ 9\4 returned 6.50 Total Returns for the day 6.50. for a day 19 profit of 1.50 Pts Total Loss for month: 319.76 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 233.88 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5264.06 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 22, 2017 Author Share Posted July 22, 2017 Day 21 Staking Plan 3, for a total outlay of 3 Pts We had 1 winner Mildenberger 3 Pts @ 4\1 returned 15 Total Returns for the day 15. for a day 21 profit of 12 Pts Total Loss for month: 307.76 Pts Total Loss since start of June: 221.88 Pts Total Profit since tips started August '16 : 5276.06 Pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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