harry_rag Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 1 point staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 15 hours ago, harry_rag said: It's always been a bit of a problem for recording the ROI on spread bets. Maybe the problem is the ROI/Yield figure we all seem to use regardless, I'm not sure it ever reveals the true profit/loss of a series of bets as well as excluding spread betting performance from the bigger picture. Perhaps it's time for an alternative measure of success/failure? On a new thread though ... I'm thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 One card too few for the fixed odds bet and one goal too few from the hotshots, thought the goal from Griffiths at least reduced the loss. Fixed odds update, 8 winners from 22 bets, +0.41 points with an ROI of 2.03%. To level stakes, +0.66 points with an ROI of 2.98%. Spreads update after yesterday's 9 point loss, 1 winner from 4 spreadbets, Buys at 28, 38, 24 and 34 have yielded make-ups of 25, 0, 50 and 25 which means I'm now 24 points down with an ROI of -19.35%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 29, 2017 Author Share Posted September 29, 2017 A spread bet for tomorrow, buy total goals for 10 points at the generally available 2.85 in the game between Bournemouth and Leicester. I wouldn't put anyone off the 11/5 for >3.5 goals in this game. It was seeing a tip for that which led me to have a closer look and persuaded me that it was worth a buy at a price where 3 goals would edge you into profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 That went well! Fair to say that of the 3 or 4 spread bets I had yesterday I couldn't have picked a worse one! Spread bets now a rip-roaring 1 from 5, 152.5 points risked, 100 returned, 52.5 points down, ROI - 34.43%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 Indianapolis/Seattle: Rawls to score a TD at 13/2 VC Bet (4.13) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 Minimum odds 5.13, not 4.13. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 2, 2017 Author Share Posted October 2, 2017 That last bet was posted in the wrong thread but was void anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 Atlanta v Minnesota: 1 point each on Villalba to score at evens and Jones to score at 13/10, both with Lads (The former is 19/20 but I've used my daily priceboost to tease it up to evens.) I've taken a guess at these two both starting but it seems reasonable with main man Martinez (18 goals in 15 starts) away with Venezuela. I think both should be odds on. If I've got the line up right it would be surprising if neither score. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 Money back from those 2 fixed odds bets with even money Villalba scoring. This week's spread offering is a buy of Sale hotshots at Harlequins tonight, for 1 point at 29 with SPIN, 25 points per McGuigan, James, Solomona or Haley try. I make them worth around 32 which is the price to buy elsewhere. I could make a case for just buying McGuigan and Solomona try minutes at a combined price of 38 being better value but let's spread the risk across 4 players and remove the volatility of worrying about when any tries are scored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 8 hours ago, harry_rag said: This week's spread offering is a buy of Sale hotshots at Harlequins tonight, for 1 point at 29 with SPIN, 25 points per McGuigan, James, Solomona or Haley try. I make them worth around 32 which is the price to buy elsewhere. I could make a case for just buying McGuigan and Solomona try minutes at a combined price of 38 being better value but let's spread the risk across 4 players and remove the volatility of worrying about when any tries are scored. Got the rub of the green there, both hotshots tries coming from the "makeweights" James and Haley! vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 8, 2017 Author Share Posted October 8, 2017 The latest bets broke even on the fixed odds and showed a 21 point profit on the spreads. Fixed odds update, 9 winners from 24 bets, +0.41 points with an ROI of 1.84%. To level stakes, +0.66 points with an ROI of 2.73%. Spread update, 2 from 6, 181.5 points risked, 150 returned, 31.5 points down, ROI - 17.36%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 Been persuaded to pull the trigger on a buy of Saracens hotshots (v Northampton) for 1 point at 30 with SPIN (25 points per Wyles, Bosch, Williams or Goode try). I get an indicative price of 34 and a margin of over 10% is always worth a look. Player stats aren't so great that they'd persuade me to up my stake but not so bad that they put me off the bet. Spreadex have George (9/4 best anytime) in for Bosch (4/1 best) and are 6 points higher. I'd say they've pushed the line too high to be of interest to buyers but that there's a decent enough chance of 2 or more tries to buy the SPIN quartet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 With 8 tries scored it's perhaps a little disappointing that the hotshots only managed 2 for a make up of 50 and a 20 point profit. That said, a win's a win so I'll stop moaning! Spread update, 3 from 7, 211.5 points risked, 200 returned, 11.5 points down, ROI - 5.44%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted October 15, 2017 Share Posted October 15, 2017 Still a good call, and a 20 point is nothing to grumble about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 15, 2017 Author Share Posted October 15, 2017 I know, it all evens itself out in the long run. A lot of it is perception and whether you follow the action. Only 2 tries in the game and you're delighted to have benefited from both of them. If you check the results afterwards and there were 8 tries there's a slight twinge of disappointment. If you follow the action it feels different if your players score the first couple of tries (again, slight disappointment that they didn't score any of the subsequent ones) as opposed to the last couple of tries (relief to have gone from total loss to profit in the latter stages of the game). It's all just "noise" as such and makes no difference to the bottom line or the selection process but it's still impossible not to react in those ways (unless you never follow the action or check the results and just look at the outcome of your bets). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted October 16, 2017 Share Posted October 16, 2017 14 hours ago, harry_rag said: ... just look at the outcome of your bets). In my case there's a lot to be said for that approach to maintain my sanity. I NEVER watch if my money is riding on an event. Sky advertising tells us something like "It's more interesting/exciting when you've got a bet on". Not for me it ain't. I can cope with being several hundreds up or down after the results without showing or feeling emotion. But watching the situation unfold fuels my inner demons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 21, 2017 Author Share Posted October 21, 2017 This week's spread selection is a buy of Rakitic;s goal minutes for 2 points at 10 with Spreadex (Barcelona v Malaga) Equivalent to around to 9/2 anytime which seems generous for a player I've often done well backing, though he has only scored 1 1 goal this season. 2/1 or less with most fixed odds firms, this is a low risk play well worthy of an interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 21, 2017 Author Share Posted October 21, 2017 That's only 1 goal this season, not 11 goals! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 No joy with that last bet, just realised I haven't updated the P/L yet. One for tomorrow in the early Mitre Cup game, Tasman v Canterbury. Buy Bateman's try minutes for 1 point at 18 with Spreadex. That's slightly better than their 15/8 anytime which is the best available. On this season's form that looks a sound enough bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 40th minute try for Bateman ends this thread on a profit. I've decided to call time on it because there are too few fixed odds bets and too many spread betting opportunities to support the format of 1 bet a week of each type. I've not posted a fixed odds bet for weeks as all my attention is posted on the goal, try and touchdown scorer selections. At the same time, I've not been "allowed" to post several decent spread bets because of the one a week criteria. I'm thinking of starting a thread just for spread bets where there will be one selection a day at most. That feels more appropriate for those bets. Spreads finished 4 from 9, 249.5 points risked and 240 returned. A loss of 9.5 points with an ROI of -3.81%. Fixed odds as per last update below. On 08/10/2017 at 11:18 AM, harry_rag said: Fixed odds update, 9 winners from 24 bets, +0.41 points with an ROI of 1.84%. To level stakes, +0.66 points with an ROI of 2.73%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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