Nice work if you can get it

[harry_rag]

Cheers Torque, I'm sure your luck will change soon too.

Guessing KP will be back in the RP soon - might regard whatever profit I've accumulated so far as a handicap start and see if I can stay in front of him all season! 

[harry_rag]

Narrowly swerved what would have been a decent return from a couple of split stakes bets on the Celtic game yesterday, hopefully these two oblige to ensure I don't regret it.

Bets 11 and 12 are in the Women's Euros final. 1 point each on:

>1.5 Holland women cards at 7/4 and >1.5 Denmark women cards at 17/20, both with 888

Having looked at this angle and all the various card markets for the game I've gone with these 2 on the basis that I can't see at least one team not earning the ref's disapproval on a couple of occasions. My starting point was 2-3 cards each at 17/10 and 5/4 with Hills. Obviously it's a no-brainer to favour 7/4 for >1.5 Dutch cards and I'll take the odds on price for the Danes to eliminate the small risk of them going >3. Honourable mention for 365's offering of 1.85 for >3 AH cards (a push if exactly 3). I considered including that in some way.

[harry_rag]

Just the one winner but at least it was the bigger priced one.

6 winners from 12 bets, +5.95 points with an ROI of 59.5%.

To level stakes, +6.2 points with an ROI of 51.67%.

[Torque]

My next bet is two points on Rory McIlroy to win the USPGA Championship at 8.20 at Smarkets. He's won at this venue twice before and also holds the course record. His form is good with top five finishes in his last two starts so all things considered I'd say he's a justified favourite.

[harry_rag]

I'm going to persist with the split stakes approach which has worked reasonably well so far.

My eye has been drawn to a game in League 2, where I expect goals and a better performance from the visitors than the markets seem to anticipate. Bets 13 and 14 are 1 point each on:

>2.5 goals in Notts County v Chesterfield at evens with Fred or Paddy among others and

Chesterfield +0 AH at 17/10 with 888

[harry_rag]

No joy this week, perhaps not aided by Chesterfield being reduced to 10 men for half the game. Those are the breaks though, and just as likely to get them going for you in the long run.

6 winners from 14 bets, +3.95 points with an ROI of 32.92%.

To level stakes, +4.2 points with an ROI of 30%.

[Torque]

McIlroy well out of contention in the golf so I drop to -17 points. 

[harry_rag]

I'm going with 1 point on >6 total AH cards in Levante v Villarreal at evens with 365.

Ref leans toward higher make ups and I like evens for >6 when exactly 6 will be a push.

[harry_rag]

Lost again.

6 winners from 15 bets, +2.95 points with an ROI of 22.69%.

To level stakes, +3.2 points with an ROI of 21.33%.

[harry_rag]

On the one hand, slim pickings today but, on the other, plenty of time to look at goals, cards and corner markets. I started with the German B2 game and didn't get any further as I found a couple of bets that appeal. (The other game to look at would be the live National League game between AFC Fylde and Barrow.)

Kaiserslautern v Braunschweig: 1 point each on Braunschweig -0.5 AH cards at 11/8 with 888 and >4 AH total cards at 2.08 with PP

A couple of firms (Sportingbet being the other one) go against the grain and make the cards match a coin toss. The rest of the market agrees with the spread firms that the visitors are favourites to gain the ref's displeasure and make them odds on. I was looking at them for most cards at 13/10 until I spotted the AH option which is effectively the same bet at a bigger price. The latter bet is available as stated with 365 at even money (e.g. >4 cards wins and exactly 4 is a push). What I've actually done is dutch PP's prices of 4/1 for exactly 40 bookings points and 8/5 for >40 which gives you a bit better than evens for more or less the same bet. Just split your stake 80/20 in favour of the shorter selection. Which you favour depends on where you can bet and whether you can be bothered!  

Essentially I'm fairly confident of 4 or more cards and that the most cards market shouldn't be a 50/50 affair.

[harry_rag]

2 from 2, with the overs landing the most comfortably. The visitors eventually "won" 4-3 on cards after coming from 2 behind.

8 winners from 17 bets, +5.41 points with an ROI of 36.03%.

To level stakes, +5.66 points with an ROI of 33.26%.

[Torque]

2 winners? Been a bit busy recently but will get involved in this thread again soon. I'm on something at the US Open but it's already started so can't post it.

[Torque]

Was writing that as you posted. Thought it was two winners but wasn't sure.

[harry_rag]

Yeah, just waited for it to be settled. They won by one card so cleared the -0.5 ah line.

It's fair to say this thread has settled into one post a week containing either a single bet or, more typically, 2 bets on the same event. While that's slightly different to the original "mission statement" I think it's an approach I'm comfortable with and will continue with. I'm finding the discipline angle quite worthwhile and interesting,

One thing I am thinking of is also posting a spreadbet each week and seeing how that goes as well, As it will only involve 2 posts a week in total I think I'll post it in here and track the fixed odds and spreads separately. Anyone have any strong feelings that it should be done in a different thread?

Monthly performance to level stakes so far is:

June: 1 out of 4 and -2.25 points

July: 4 out of 6 and +7.7 points

August: 3 out of 7 and +0.21 points

[harry_rag]

22 hours ago, harry_rag said:

One thing I am thinking of is also posting a spreadbet each week and seeing how that goes as well, As it will only involve 2 posts a week in total I think I'll post it in here and track the fixed odds and spreads separately. Anyone have any strong feelings that it should be done in a different thread?

I appreciate I've not allowed too much time for a response but I've decided I will post a weekly spreadbet as well and I'll post it in this thread rather than clutter up the board with another one. Essentially there will be one post a week containing the usual fixed odds selection(s) and one with a spreadbet. I'll keep a separate record for the 2 bet types. I'll update the opening post to reflect the approach from this point forward.

[harry_rag]

This week's first bet could have been the inaugural spread selection, but after weighing it up I've favoured a fixed odds approach, split across 3 bets.

Malta v England: 0.5 point on Malta shown 2-3 cards at 21/20 with Hills, 1 on 30+ Malta bookings points at 6/4 and 0.5 on 40+ Malta bookings points at 7/2, both with Skybet.

As long as Malta are shown at least 2 cards you will see a partial return, 30+ points guarantees a profit. There's a reasonable chance of 2 of the bets landing and I just favour this approach to a simple buy of their bookings points at 24.

I wouldn't put anyone  off the 11/2 for a red card being shown in the game with PP. The RP advised a bet on this at 7/2. I'm not sure about that but 11/2 is worth an interest given Malta's recent disciplinary record.

[harry_rag]

Oh well, I should have followed KP's usual practice of having a week of the footy betting when it's an International weekend.

First spread selection is a buy of Agen hotshots v Racing 92 (25 points per Nakosi, Heriteau, McHedlidze or Tilsley try) for 1 point at 28 with SX

You can pay 26 with SPIN but with the less appealing Denos in place of Heriteau. I make this lot worth 30.5 and there's enough of a margin here for me to fancy a buy.

[harry_rag]

No joy on the fixed odds front this week.

8 winners from 20 bets, +3.41 points with an ROI of 20.03%.

To level stakes, +2.66 points with an ROI of 13.28%.

On the spreads front, the Agen hotshots managed a single try to minimise the loss to 3 points so -3 points is the running total after 1 bet.

[harry_rag]

First action this week is the spread bet. I'm getting the impression that sticking to just one spread bet a week is going to be harder than fixed odds!

Sale v Newcastle: Buy Sale hotshots for 1 point at 38 with SPIN (25 points per McGuigan, Addison, Solomona or Haley try)

I get an indicative price of 44.5, making for a theoretical edge of 17%. Spreadex have de Klerk in for Haley which makes no difference to my assessment of the price and they go 40-44 which is much closer to my view. 2 tries needed to show a profit, worth the risk in my view, at the price.

[harry_rag]

Meant to add, for anyone who doesn't spread bet but fancies an interest, that a couple of those players make the cut for my "outside chance" thread and will be posted shortly.

[harry_rag]

No joy with the spread bet so a 38 point loss making for 0/2 and a running total of -41 points. Made my occasional mistake, perhaps, of not factoring in the weather for rugby bets.

Fixed odds bullet still in the chamber!

[harry_rag]

Keeping it simple this week with a straightforward single 1 point bet.

1 point on Wasps to score >4.5 tries v Worcester at 21/20 with Lads

Fancy Wasps to win and score heavily in the process, have used my priceboost option but would still take the bet at the standard evens available with Lads and elsewhere. I just think it's more likely than not that Wasps will score at least 5 tries today.

 

[harry_rag]

Wasps not quite up to the task today. 

8 winners from 21 bets, +2.41 points with an ROI of 13.36%.

To level stakes, +1.66 points with an ROI of 7.88%.

[harry_rag]

This week's spreadbet is a buy of Harlequins hotshots at Wasps for 1 point at 24 with SPIN, 25 points per Walker, Marchant, Brown or Yarde try.

I make this lot worth a touch over 26 and they're 28 to buy elsewhere. A solid enough proposition where even one try would reduce my current arrears by a point! Hopefully that's the worst outcome and they can muster 2 or more tries between them.

[harry_rag]

2 hotshots tries for a make up of 50 and a 26 point profit.

1 winner from 3 spreadbets, Buys at 28, 38 and 24 have yielded make-ups of 25, 0 and 50 which means I'm now 15 points down with an ROI of -16.67%.

[harry_rag]

After there being no fixed odds selection last week, I'm going in unusually early this week.

Rangers v Celtic: 2 points on 4-6 cards being shown at 1.56/1 with Hills (29/20 with priceboost applied, acceptable without). 

Been a standing bet for me for years, in this and similar fixtures where there is an inflated cards expectation. Generally, people prefer to bet high and those that don't probably prefer an unders bet than one on a middle band. I believe this price is often bigger than it should be in this type of game, probably because the bookies can make hay offering far too short prices on the "obvious" high outcome.

The teams met 6 times last season with the bet landing in 4 of them. The other games were split 1 each between over and under. It came in on both occasions when the teams met in cup ties while Rangers were banished from the top flight and in 3 out of 4 games in their last SPL season. 

I'm not saying the true odds are the 1.33 implied by that small sample but I'm confident they're much closer to even money than the odds on offer imply.

 

[harry_rag]

Gloucester v Worcester: Adams to score a try at 10/3 with PP/BF (4.11)

(Not a bet for this thread, meant to post in "Outside Chance",)

 

Edited September 21, 2017 by harry_rag
Posted in wrong thread

[Data]

On 17/09/2017 at 8:36 PM, harry_rag said:

2 hotshots tries for a make up of 50 and a 26 point profit.

1 winner from 3 spreadbets, Buys at 28, 38 and 24 have yielded make-ups of 25, 0 and 50 which means I'm now 15 points down with an ROI of -16.67%.

Interesting use of an ROI figure with spread betting, which cannot be used if a maximum downside is not known.

Do you restrict your spreads to only those which have an absolute worst=case?

[harry_rag]

You're right, it's a dilemma and I'd usually just put the losses in the debit column and the wins in the credit column. In this case, as the bets so far have all been ones where there was a risk of maximum known loss I've done it that way.

I buy more often than I sell and I rarely play markets that can have a negative make up. That said, if I was buying total corners I'd be reluctant to record the ROI as if the entire stake was at risk.

It's always been a bit of a problem for recording the ROI on spread bets.

[harry_rag]

Rangers v Celtic for the spreads too. Buy hotshots at 34 with SPIN, Morelos, Griffiths, Sinclair and Armstrong.

A good 5 points light for me.