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jamiedavies02

ACL 2017

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Knockout stages for this began yesterday...

This afternoon sees the Champions of Iran (Persepolis) take on the Champions of Qatar (Lekhwiya) - take a look at the table below, the coefficients of the 2 leagues are almost identical, the respective nations win-rates in the ACL since 2011 are very similar, the 2 nations head to head record in the same time frame is 11-11-10 and finally the clubs ACL strike rates are quite closeley matched, the draw is available at 23/10 here and I think it could be a big player. 28% of ACL matches end up a draw, with 10% of matches finishing 0-0 - the only thing putting me off the unders and 0-0 too is the fact that the Qatar league boasts one of the highest average goals-per-game ratio in world football,the Iranian league would be in the mid-to-lower end of the spectrum.

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Persepolis v Lekhwiya to be a draw @ 23/10 (Various)

ACL.JPG.1622da9436ae45336a7c967ac7fafb36.JPG

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1st post for awhile again...

Baffled as to why Al-Ahli (SAU) have drifted out to 2/1 in places in their QF 2nd leg at home to Persepolis (IRN)

Average Match prices for the 1st leg;

Persepolis 2.21 Draw 3.14 Al Ahli 3.18 - the match finished 2-2 with Al Ahli blowing a 2-0 lead, the shot stats were 12-11 for total shots and 5-4 for shots on target

Nation Coeffiicents;

Saudi Arabia 84.7 Iran 78.9

Nation Head to Head in the ACL

Saudi Arabia lead 23-17 with 10 draws in the previous 50 meetings in

Average prices

In the ACL a match between 2 evenly matched sides should see the home side priced at 2.16, draw 3.63 and the away side at 3.82, given the info provided above, you could argue that the the Saudi team, Al Ahli should be favoured in this game, which prices were released, was the case, Al Ahli opened at 1.85 with 365 which looked right to me.

Al Ahli are now 2/1 which on the face of things, is massive value. I can find little relating to team news on the world wide web, I'll compare tomorrows starting XI to the 1st legs, and unless I find a good reason not to I'll be backing the Saudis.

Bet

Al-Ahli +0.25 @ 9/11 188Bet

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1 hour ago, jamiedavies02 said:

1st post for awhile again...

Baffled as to why Al-Ahli (SAU) have drifted out to 2/1 in places in their QF 2nd leg at home to Persepolis (IRN)

Average Match prices for the 1st leg;

Persepolis 2.21 Draw 3.14 Al Ahli 3.18 - the match finished 2-2 with Al Ahli blowing a 2-0 lead, the shot stats were 12-11 for total shots and 5-4 for shots on target

Nation Coeffiicents;

Saudi Arabia 84.7 Iran 78.9

Nation Head to Head in the ACL

Saudi Arabia lead 23-17 with 10 draws in the previous 50 meetings in

Average prices

In the ACL a match between 2 evenly matched sides should see the home side priced at 2.16, draw 3.63 and the away side at 3.82, given the info provided above, you could argue that the the Saudi team, Al Ahli should be favoured in this game, which prices were released, was the case, Al Ahli opened at 1.85 with 365 which looked right to me.

Al Ahli are now 2/1 which on the face of things, is massive value. I can find little relating to team news on the world wide web, I'll compare tomorrows starting XI to the 1st legs, and unless I find a good reason not to I'll be backing the Saudis.

Bet

Al-Ahli +0.25 @ 9/11 188Bet

Good post, and good to see you posting again. :ok 

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The ACL is now at its Semi Final stage which in effect is a regional final - few bits of info on both matches below;

Fix.JPG

Al Hilal (SAU) v Persepolis (IRN)

Sau v irn 1.JPG

Sau v irn 2.JPG

Shanghai SIPG (CHI) v Urawa Reds (JAP)

59c638a66a53c_ChiJap1.thumb.JPG.d5772860a0a30c41febc978bbe7edac3.JPG

59c638b28525d_ChiJap2.thumb.JPG.eeb9ea23560115782cccbd64b5d667df.JPG

My shots ratings for the Chinese Super League and the J-League

Rats.JPG.912d59b1d64005f7824c95958f434912.JPG

General Mutterings

We've already seen both of these match ups this competition as the teams met in the group stages; Al Hilal and Persepolis played out 2 draws whilst Shanghai and Urawa traded home wins.

Looking at all the info above, I am of the opinion that in both ties the only thing separating the teams in question is home advantage - so in a 100% book I'd be H2.15 D3.65 A3.82 and that would be for all 4 matches. Given that, you could make a case that all 4 sides should be the same price for the outright, however the Eastern region has won 7 of the last 8 finals so you'd have to favour the winner of Shanghai and Urawa.

Domestic Matters

The Iranian and Saudi seasons are still in their infancy so it would be unfair to comment on those. Shanghai SIPG are still in with a slim chance of Chinese Super League glory so will still have half an eye on that. Over in Japan Urawa lead my shots ratings but are struggling down in 8th in the league - this could be an advantage as all their eggs may well be in the ACL basket

Odds Thoughts

I think Shanghai are too short at home to Urawa in the first leg - and as I can only separate them by home advantage they're also a big price for the outright.

I can't argue with the match prices in the Al Hilal match - again though as I separate them only by home advantage I'd rather back Perseoplis in the outright.

Edited by jamiedavies02

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1st Leg Results

Al Hilal 4-0 Persepolis

Shanghai SIPG 1-1 Urawa

Latest Thoughts

Al Hilal have all but secured their place in this years final, however the Western region have won 7 of the last 8 finals so I'd heavily favour the Western side in the final - whoever that may be, Id expect to see Outright odds of Western Side 8/15 Al Hilal 11/8 as a ballpark figure.

As I mentioned above in an earlier post I can only separate Urawa and Shanghai by home advantage, I'd make Urawa slight favs to qualify from that tie, maybe 8/11 to 1/1. However 188s Outright odds suggest that Shanghai will be favs to qualify as they're shorter in the betting than Urawa, I think these odds are the wrong way around.

My Outright tissue would be something along the lines of;

Al Hilal 11/8

Urawa 13/8

Shanhai 2/1

Persepolis 100/1

Bet

Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 5/2 188bet

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On 04/10/2017 at 11:19 AM, jamiedavies02 said:

1st Leg Results

Al Hilal 4-0 Persepolis

Shanghai SIPG 1-1 Urawa

Latest Thoughts

Al Hilal have all but secured their place in this years final, however the Western region have won 7 of the last 8 finals so I'd heavily favour the Western side in the final - whoever that may be, Id expect to see Outright odds of Western Side 8/15 Al Hilal 11/8 as a ballpark figure.

As I mentioned above in an earlier post I can only separate Urawa and Shanghai by home advantage, I'd make Urawa slight favs to qualify from that tie, maybe 8/11 to 1/1. However 188s Outright odds suggest that Shanghai will be favs to qualify as they're shorter in the betting than Urawa, I think these odds are the wrong way around.

My Outright tissue would be something along the lines of;

Al Hilal 11/8

Urawa 13/8

Shanhai 2/1

Persepolis 100/1

Bet

Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 5/2 188bet

A few Asian firms are up with match prices for the 2nd leg - Urawa are on average around 5/6 for the match and 8/15 to qualify fro the final, the 5/2 available for the outright, if you divide this by their to qualify you get implied odds of roughly 5/4 for the final - given that East Asian teams have won 7 of the last 8 renewals would be a proposterous price - as mentioned above I'd expect the winner to be around 8/15 for the final, if not shorter.

Bet

Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 5/2 188bet

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On 10/11/2017 at 1:56 PM, jamiedavies02 said:

A few Asian firms are up with match prices for the 2nd leg - Urawa are on average around 5/6 for the match and 8/15 to qualify fro the final, the 5/2 available for the outright, if you divide this by their to qualify you get implied odds of roughly 5/4 for the final - given that East Asian teams have won 7 of the last 8 renewals would be a proposterous price - as mentioned above I'd expect the winner to be around 8/15 for the final, if not shorter.

Bet

Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 5/2 188bet

What are your thoughts on today's game?

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On 11/10/2017 at 0:56 PM, jamiedavies02 said:

A few Asian firms are up with match prices for the 2nd leg - Urawa are on average around 5/6 for the match and 8/15 to qualify fro the final, the 5/2 available for the outright, if you divide this by their to qualify you get implied odds of roughly 5/4 for the final - given that East Asian teams have won 7 of the last 8 renewals would be a proposterous price - as mentioned above I'd expect the winner to be around 8/15 for the final, if not shorter.

Bet

Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 5/2 188bet

Urawa qualified for the final with a 1-0 victory over Shanghai SIPG - 188Bet have posted their Outright odds, they have Urawa at 9/10 with Al Hilal favoured at 4/5, these odds are still wrong for me, Urawa should be alot shorter.

Bet

Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 9/10 188Bet

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On 18/10/2017 at 2:45 PM, jamiedavies02 said:

Urawa qualified for the final with a 1-0 victory over Shanghai SIPG - 188Bet have posted their Outright odds, they have Urawa at 9/10 with Al Hilal favoured at 4/5, these odds are still wrong for me, Urawa should be alot shorter.

Bet

Urawa Reds to win the ACL @ 9/10 188Bet

Winner.

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