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BillyHills

Spanish Grand Prix

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Spanish GP, Sunday May 14th

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This weekend we go to Barcelona for the next round of the F1 Championship. If you remember this is where the Mercs of Hamilton and Rosberg came together last year and very kindly left the door wide open for Max Verstappen to break his duck in Formula One.

Well this time round all the talk is of the upgrades to various cars and Mercedes seem to have been very busy streamlining their car. Some significant upgrades have been fitted and it looks to have paid off as they were ahead of the Ferrari's during practice. Hamilton was the quickest with Valtteri Bottas not that far behind.

Almost immediately the odds on both drivers were cut for Sundays race, Hamilton is 10/11 with Bet365 and Bottas 11/4. A far cry from the 12/1 the bookies were quoting for the Fin in the first couple of races. It was only a matter of time that Bottas was going to show what he could do in a Merc.

Sebastian Vettel has drifted out to 4/1 as the word is that Ferrari haven't done much to their car and he may well have fell behind the pace, for a race or two anyway. I'm sure they will have something in the pipeline to bolt on to their car soon. Red Bull on the other hand are moving in the right direction and a podium is not out of the question on a track they perform well on.

All the early value has gone so we will just wait and see what qualifying brings, if Hamilton lands pole position expect his odds to be cut even further, maybe to 4/6 or 4/7 so if you really fancy him then now is the time to strike. One word of caution, Mercedes haven't done that well here in the past, in fact Hamilton has only won here once.

:ok

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Lewis Hamilton will start on pole as expected but Ferrari came to life today and Sebastian Vettel makes the race interesting by lining up on the front row. Bottas and Raikkonen fill row 2 ahead of the Red Bulls.

Hamilton is anything from 8/11 to 4/7 as predicted withe Vettel 9/4 and Bottas out to 8/1. Both Vettel and Bottas has technical issues during qualifying and at one time it looked like either of them could miss qualifying completely. There are two ways of looking at that, Hamilton has had a worry free weekend so far so could be the most solid option yet Vettel still managed to get close despite his issues, Bottas i'm pretty sure will have trouble in beating his team mate.

My preference would always be with the man on pole, especially here where its hard enough to overtake, never mind if you have a slight problem or two. For me for Vettel to win he has to make turn 1 in front and that means Hamilton would need to make an error.

Elsewhere i'm struggling to find any value so i'm going for a sporting punt on Max Verstappen to finish on the podium at 7/2. If he gets a decent start he could trouble Raikkonen early on and then we just need one of the top three to have a bad day at the office! Anythings possible and Max will be trying his heart out as usual.

Good news for McLaren this week as Fernando Alonso starts 7th on the grid, he's 5/6 to finish in he points which is not bad value despite there obvious problems and i wouldn't put anyone off backing him this week.

I don't expect too many retirements here, its Even money for over 15.5 Finishers and that looks fair, a Safety Car is 50/50 according to the bookies, the stats say there probably wont be one.

Selections:

L.Hamilton 8/11 Paddy Power
M.Verstappen Podium 7/2 Paddy Power
Over 15.5 Finishers Evens Skybet

:ok

 

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