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Week > May 10th - 14th

StevieDay1983
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StevieDay1983

StevieDay1983

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eplratings1.jpg

eplratings2.jpg

There are only a couple of weeks of Premier League action left. Sunderland went on the weekend and Middlesbrough followed them last night. So we now just have one more relegation slot left. The big game this week is Crystal Palace versus Hull. That could have a huge say in the relegation battle. If Hull lose and Swansea beat Sunderland away then Hull are down. However, if Hull win that game then it blows everything wide open.

At the other end of the table, a win for Chelsea away to West Brom will see them crowned as Premier League champions. They clearly are deserved winners if they do it but it'll be a shame for Tottenham to narrowly miss out again. If Chelsea win their remaining games then they will fall just 2 points shy of the Premier League points total record. It just shows how impressive they have been.

The top four is looking a lot clearer. Tottenham have their place wrapped up but it's not yet certain for Liverpool and Manchester City. They could still get caught by Manchester United and Arsenal. A win for Tottenham this weekend will all but end United's top four aspirations. However, they still have an investment in the Europa League that could see them qualify for the Champions League next season by that route.

One point to note is Leicester's incredible finish. They were being tipped for relegation just a few months ago. If they win 2 of their remaining 3 league games (which is likely given their current form) then they could well finish top 8 this season. Combine that with a Champions League quarter final finish and it's not been a bad season at all for the Foxes in the end.

So what are we thinking guys?

@sajtion, @discipline, @the bastardian, @andrewcalo, @Mindfulness, @Sir Puntalot, @AndreBR, @mrclubbie, @neilovan, @allyhibs, @Judeksi, @Tiffy, @KikoCy, @Bett, @zemo91, @sm0kez, @Bronxie, @Duuc, @Dylan Lynch, @betcatalog, @vasilli07, @omch@, @Pep004, and @WinningAdvice.

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KikoCy

KikoCy

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I fancy Swansea but would have them priced at 2.15 or so.

See, Sunderland is like that ex-girlfriend who is bitter to see you stay up and will want to bring you down with her.

Everton should win on paper but also got a low price for a team that doesn't look like they give a shit anymore.

 

That being said, without research or prices, I fancy:

Bournemouth @ 1.95

West Ham 1X 

City -1 EH

 

I know it's Spurs last game at WHL and they will want to put on a show but 1.70 is a low price IMO. 

That could go either way actually and Spurs have been known to implode, especially with their youthful team.

Whose ballsy enough to back a United win?

 

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Mindfulness

Mindfulness

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52 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

Lots of value this week.

I'm confident in Swansea. I think Hull might come unstuck. You can get Everton -1 at 3.2 which seems great value.

Mate don't get caught up in all the hype. The markets are such clowns when it comes to Palace games, they always make us such big favourites in home games against bottom half teams but that is where we have been most vulnerable for 2 years now. I keep saying it on these boards. It's such a high pressure game and Palace will need to recover some of their leaders on the pitch if they are to be confident of a positive result. We need Cabaye back and to recover at least one of our injured centre backs from Sakho, Dann or Tomkins. Even if we do, odds on for a Palace victory is a total joke although I will add that game is difficult to price due to the unusual circumstances which surround it. Palace -0.25 line in the region of EVS could be considered a break even valuation in this situation, markets are nowhere near that at this present time.

As for The Swans, they should be full of confidence after the Everton victory but it's still all on the line, if anything I think their price is even worse than Palace's. Relegation has been a mind trick for Sunderland and now they play with the wind in their sales and zero pressure on them. ELO and away form is not favourable to Swansea - 1.85 for away win is a joke as game could easily end in a draw.

I want Palace and Swansea victories this weekend but I sure won't be betting on them.

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andrewcalo

andrewcalo

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Posted (edited)

I have thought about it again and landed on two draws - Hull game and Middlesbrough v Southampton.

Everton and Bournemouth home wins.

Swansea away.

Stoke v Arsenal and West Ham v Liverpool - one of those will end in an upset.

how about the odds on Leicester? They blew Man City off and patk in their last two meetings. Should be at least two goals by half time in this match.

Pep thinks he has the best forward line in the Premiership. If they played like they did against Palace in every match that would be true. But it's somewhat ludicrous given the number of clean sheets they've had against them this year.  With that kind of over-confidence still rampant I imagine Leicester and Vardy must be chomping at the bit.

Edited by andrewcalo
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vasilli07

vasilli07

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I like Everton -1. In 2017, they have won all their home games by at least 2 goals. The only time they didn't was against Chelsea a few weeks ago.

If Celta can push Man Utd to extra time or all the way till the 90th min in midweek, then Spurs should be a good play.

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andrewcalo

andrewcalo

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There was a lot of value in week 37 last year - I won 30k off £11 - 

 

Here's the eight fold with odds from last year - 

 

Man U WIN away to Norwich 1-0  1.85  

Sunderland WIN home to Chelsea 3-2  3.0

Palace WIN home to Stoke 2-1  2.0  

Bournemouth DRAW home to West Brom 1-1  3.5

Leicester WIN home to Everton 3-1  2.0 

Southampton WIN away to Tottenham 1-2  4.0

Man Ciy DRAW home to Arsenal 2-2  3.5  

West Ham WIN home to Man U 3-2  3.0

 

Came in 3090 to 1 - I was laughing lol 

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discipline

discipline

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, betcatalog said:

You can not mention many things about this showdown, you have to bet on the motivation and the necessity of points
SOUTHAMPTON FC vs ARSENAL @@ ARSENAL, odds 2.05

I agree. Do-or-die game for Arsenal in their run for a CL spot. Apart from Koscielny, who is questionable, every significant player is available for Arsenal. Plus Arsenal beat them 5-0 in Southampton in the FA Cup Last 16 round in their last encounter.

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andrewcalo

andrewcalo

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The Swansea Sunderland game could be over by half time. We have to win to keep pressure on both Palace and Hull - and I think we will. Sunderland are the type of team we know we are better than - their keeper saved them from a draw last weekend and I have a funny feeling we are confident enough to come out of the gate sprinting and score two before half time.

Sunderland are already relegated for a reason - there's not enough quality in their team. 

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betcatalog

betcatalog

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I expect Chelsea to leave the opportunity to lose, is a serious team and can take advantage of the homelessness of the host
WEST BROMWICH ALBION vs CHELSEA FC @@ CHELSEA FC, odds 1.36

Weird game, basically the two teams have no visible and immediate goals, and it is out of form, it does not come out because the score score with difficulty I will go with the under 3.5
EVERTON FC vs WATFORD FC @@ +3.50 Under, odds 1.45

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Magic0024

Magic0024

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Premier League:


Everton have failed to score in their last 3 games in Premier League.
Watford have lost with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 away games in Premier League.
Chelsea have won with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 games in Premier League.

Interesting 41 Football Betting Facts for 12.05.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-12-05-2017

 

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StevieDay1983

StevieDay1983

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11 hours ago, betcatalog said:

I expect Chelsea to leave the opportunity to lose, is a serious team and can take advantage of the homelessness of the host
WEST BROMWICH ALBION vs CHELSEA FC @@ CHELSEA FC, odds 1.36

Weird game, basically the two teams have no visible and immediate goals, and it is out of form, it does not come out because the score score with difficulty I will go with the under 3.5
EVERTON FC vs WATFORD FC @@ +3.50 Under, odds 1.45

Going for a low return this week then, @betcatalog? :lol

On 09/05/2017 at 0:40 PM, KikoCy said:

I fancy Swansea but would have them priced at 2.15 or so.

See, Sunderland is like that ex-girlfriend who is bitter to see you stay up and will want to bring you down with her.

Everton should win on paper but also got a low price for a team that doesn't look like they give a shit anymore.

 

That being said, without research or prices, I fancy:

Bournemouth @ 1.95

West Ham 1X 

City -1 EH

 

I know it's Spurs last game at WHL and they will want to put on a show but 1.70 is a low price IMO. 

That could go either way actually and Spurs have been known to implode, especially with their youthful team.

Whose ballsy enough to back a United win?

 

:lol That line has got me in stitches. So true though! It must be frustrating for the fans. Knowing their players could have gotten the wins but didn't have the mental strength to do it when the pressure was on. I dare not go near the relegation fight this week. I couldn't call it. I do think Swansea have the mental advantage. Have Hull peaked too early and too little?

Also, word of warning about last games at home grounds. You often see the occasion built up massively and a lot of teams struggle to deal with it. Cardiff's last game at Ninian Park ended in an absolute trouncing that eventually led to us missing out on promotion. It was the most depressing way to end our tenure at the old ground. In the shadow of their failed title bid, I find the 1.70 price placed on Tottenham to win way too low to tempt me. Not saying that Manchester United will win but I'm certainly favouring a draw more than anything.

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mrclubbie

mrclubbie

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Interesting to see whether West Brom can stop Chelsea tonight and keep the title race dragging on to the last matchweek

Chelsea's away EPL stats - 12W 3D 3L, 29 scored 16 conceded

WBA's home EPL stats - 9W 2D 7L, 27 scored 21 conceded

Since WBA's return to EPL in 2010/11 season, both sides have met 13 times and Chelsea won 7 times, but only 2 of the wins were at Hawthorns

Pulis's recent records against Chelsea

With WBA -  P4, 1W 1D 2L (both losses by 1 goal margin)

With Crystal Palace - P2, 1W 1L (lose by 1 goal margin)

With Stoke City - P11, 0W 2D 9L

 

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betcatalog

betcatalog

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Stoke seems to have quit and it is not possible to turn a switch and change everything, Arsenal is in full form and fights for the above positions
STOKE CITY vs ARSENAL FC @@ ARSENAL FC, odds 1.75

Surely Swansea will take a lot of play and it is quite possible, but you can not trust Swansea, I think I have the value of the few goals because both teams score with the eyedropper, Swansea must be very careful, I give up From 50% to under 2.5
SUNDERLAND AFC vs SWANSEA CITY @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.95

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mrclubbie

mrclubbie

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Expect both teams, Crystal Palace and Hull, to go all out today in a relegation match both teams must win today (both teams will meet Man Utd and Spurs respectively in their last match)

Palace home stats - 5W 2D 11L, 20 scored 25 conceded

Hull away stats - 1W 3D 14L, 9 scored 41 conceded

Looks like easy win for Palace given Hull's weak away form ? Can't be sure, but I shall go with over 2.5 in anticipation of both sides all out attack to win this critical match.

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StevieDay1983

StevieDay1983

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10 hours ago, betcatalog said:

Stoke seems to have quit and it is not possible to turn a switch and change everything, Arsenal is in full form and fights for the above positions
STOKE CITY vs ARSENAL FC @@ ARSENAL FC, odds 1.75

Surely Swansea will take a lot of play and it is quite possible, but you can not trust Swansea, I think I have the value of the few goals because both teams score with the eyedropper, Swansea must be very careful, I give up From 50% to under 2.5
SUNDERLAND AFC vs SWANSEA CITY @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.95

Under 2.5 goals certainly seems a decent price here. Neither side is exactly prolific in front of goal so I think under 2.5 goals is a decent shout for the Sunderland versus Swansea game. I agree with the Arsenal shout as well. Stoke isn't their favourite place to visit but it's far less intimidating than it was a few years ago. I think Arsenal are going to make a late push for the top four as always. I think they've left it a bit too late this year but they will miss out firing.

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Pep004

Pep004

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Posted (edited)

It has been a while since my last analysis here, but I really like the odds on Manchester City AH -0,75 in first half today. Without Huth, Morgan and Drinkwater, defensive part of Foxes won't be the same, and I expect Citizens to "finish" them already in 1st half.

As match will start soon, there is a short analysis: http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/05/manchester-city-leicester-city.html

Edited by Pep004
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MPLouis

MPLouis

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13 hours ago, mrclubbie said:

Expect both teams, Crystal Palace and Hull, to go all out today in a relegation match both teams must win today (both teams will meet Man Utd and Spurs respectively in their last match)

Palace home stats - 5W 2D 11L, 20 scored 25 conceded

Hull away stats - 1W 3D 14L, 9 scored 41 conceded

Looks like easy win for Palace given Hull's weak away form ? Can't be sure, but I shall go with over 2.5 in anticipation of both sides all out attack to win this critical match.

Palace don't have to win - a draw is enough

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AndreBR

AndreBR

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Hey guys!

Today I liked to bet on Boro. Although the relegation is already confirmed, I think Boro in the presence of his supporter looks to say goodbye in the most dignified way possible to a Saints who already thinks only next season. The feeling of not remaining in the first division should set the tone for that match.

Anyway, I'll be cautious. Last rounds I do not usually go with high stake.

@Middlesbrough or Draw @ 1.88 2/5 Unit

Edited by AndreBR
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