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Chester Cup Festival - May 10th - 12th


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Chester Festival 

This week we have lots of top class action at Chester.

Starting on Wednesday with the Chester Cup and the Cheshire Oaks. On Thursday we have two Group 3 races including the Chester Vase and on the final day we have the Dee Stakes and the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes.

 

Wednesday

1m 3½f
2m 2½f

Thursday

1m 2½f
1m 4½f

Friday

1m 2½f
1m 5½f

 

Any thoughts on the racing? Lets us know what you will be backing whether it be in a Lucky 15 or a sure fire winner, right on the nose.

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Chester Cup

Two things immediately stick out for me in this years Chester Cup, firstly Sea Of Heaven for the very shrewd trainer Sir Mark Prescott and the booking of Ryan Moore for a Tony Martin raider (Golden Spear).

The pair not surprisingly sit at the top of the betting market and personally I would have to side with the proven ability of Sea Of Heaven. A course winner too which is a big advantage as not all horses can handle the turns here. Last time out he was 3rd in the Cesarewitch and interestingly he has been either favourite or second favourite in 9 of his last 11 starts. On the negative side he is now on a career high mark of 97 and has been drawn wide in stall 14.

Golden Spear was just behind Sea Of Heaven at Newmarket but is a bit worse off at the weights now, he won the November handicap in Ireland and since then has been hurdling. He's not been in red hot form to be honest but the booking of Ryan Moore is a definite positive.

Of the others The Cashel Man ran well in this last season and finished in between Sea Of Heaven and Golden Spear in the Cesarewitch last time out, William Buick rides again and he may have been the unlucky horse in that race at HQ. He's drawn 8 here but is often slow away so may need a bit of luck. He's twice the price of the favourite so a decent value bet.

Selections:

Sea Of Heaven 7/1 Bet365

The Cashel Man EW 16/1 Skybet

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I was listening to a conversation on Friday between a work colleague and Luke Morris. The general gist was that Sea Of Heaven is a long way ahead of his mark of 97. The feeling is that he could be a very live contender in some of the Cup races this season. Stall 14 is a pain in the arse and tempers any real desire to go mad on him, but as possibly the best handicapped horse in the race, he will carry 1pt ew of my £££

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50p e/w l15 for me.
 
Wed 15:00
3290.GIF

9 - Blithe Spirit @ 10/1

Win
15.00 Chester - Paying 4 Places

Qualified
 
Wed 15:35
286128.GIF

15 - Who Dares Wins @ 5/1

Win
15.35 Chester: Chester Cup - Paying 6 Places

Qualified
 
Wed 17:05
58922.GIF

5 - Sir Billy Wright @ 22/1

Win
17.05 Chester

Qualified
 
Wed 20:15
27892.GIF

10 - Our Max @ 11/2

Win
20.15 Dundalk

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2.25 Chester: Cheshire Oaks (Listed), 1m 4f

Aiden O'Brien has used this race as a springboard for plenty of good fillies in the past, in fact his record is quite sublime and therefore it should be a tip in itself that he brings Alluringly here on the back of a mightily impressive maiden success last month.

The Fastnet Rock filly rocked home at Tipperary in stylish fashion, giving the impression that she could be a very smart individual. She looked, big and scopey, clearly physically improved that day, after two slightly underwhelming runs as a juvenile. 

The step up in trip is the question mark. She goes as far as never before and it's not clear cut on pedigree, however there is Saddler's Wells in the dam line, so that alone should ensure that she has at least a fighting chance. Also she ran strongly to the line the other day, giving the impression a step up in trip will only see her improving again.

Selection:
10pts win - Alluringly @ 6/4 Skybet

.......

5.05 Chester: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

The final race of the opening card of the Festival - draw plays a big role at Chester, particularly over shorter trips. So going against the bias backing a horse from a wide draw is probably rather dumb.

I still do it. Reason is that I back bottom weight Fast Dancer here, who is drawn in eleven, but who is a hold-up horse and therefore might not  be quite as disadvantaged by the draw as a horse that needs to lead.

Though it is also true that being up with the pace is an advantage at Chester too, it also happens regularly that they go way to fast up on front with in turn opens up opportunities for those horse ridden more patiently.

Fast Dancer will rely on this fast pace and what encourages me most is his positive course record. Also he dropped to a mark that potentially undervalues his past achievements and therefore a race to suit should see him have a cracking chance here. 

Selection:
10pts win - Fast Dancer @ 14/1 Bet365

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Chester cup 

Who dares wins   99.12

Sir chauvelin  99.09 

Tough race and hard to call especially with jump horses in the mix but percentages suggest these two could run well under these conditions so the 11/2 and 20/1 look good value so worth a play 

Who dares wins  12pts win 11/2 bet365

Sir chauvelin 8pts win 20/1 bet365 

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CHESTER CUP

Jump trainers have a decent record in this and Who Dares Wins looks to have a top chance its in my L15 but ive also had 2 e/w singles in the race. The first one is the rag 50/1 outsider  GOOD TRADITION I GOT 6 Places  1/5 Odds  with SB last night comes here  fit from the jump shrew McCain trained handy flat mark  i think ground is fine  first try over this trip on the flat could surpise at a massive price. Jolly Jim Goldie horses are starting to run into form i got 20/1 e/w on SIR CHAUVELIN 1/4 1-4  last night  i see money for it when the yard back there horses in these big handicapps they usually go close  and this horse ran well lto should be spot on for this.

Good Luck  All

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Ormonde Stakes

A funny race this year and perhaps more wide open than in previous years. The front two in the betting have a bit to prove so may not be much value at the moment. Midterm was off through injury for a while and has since made a reasonable comeback at  Newbury, finishing 5th in the John Porter Stakes. He now wears a visor for the first time so still has issues it seems. 

US Army Ranger has disappointed on the whole since his good second in the 2016 Epsom Derby, he has not won now since taking the Vase here on his way to Epsom. A lack-lustre 3rd last time out can be improved upon but a wide draw and a short price put me off.

I like Red Verdon but i'm just not sure about his draw in stall 11, he could be running on late for a bit of place money. My choice is going to be the filly Diamonds Pour Moi. She has a perfect draw, has ran well at this track and is still unexposed over the trip and could easily improve on her mark of 105. At 11/1 she represents a bit of value in a tricky old race.

Diamonds Pour Moi EW 11/1 BetVictor/PP

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Tribal Path is the sort of horse who looks made for the test around Chester. He breaks extremely quickly and has well over 1f to get to the front before the bend so I don't think stall 10 will pose any problems. His best form is at tight turning tracks like Galway, Listowel and Bellewstown so he'll relish this test around Chester and could put his rivals under pressure front with little time to make up ground up the short run in. On top of that he actually looks to be on a fair mark given he's placed in some decent races off similar ratings. English is a trainer I rate and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the plan for a while and if he improves a little coming to a track that suits like Chester he looks considerably more likely than the odds suggest. He's quite a strong fancy of mine so I've had a few quid at 33/1 in the first race of the day.

Balding also has an exceptional record at Chester. Not sure if there's any reason why like the way he gallops his horses at home or maybe he just targets races here. He has 44 wins when compared to 35 wins expected when you calculate their chances using BSP so I've backed all his runners today as well.

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4 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

Balding also has an exceptional record at Chester. Not sure if there's any reason why like the way he gallops his horses at home or maybe he just targets races here. He has 44 wins when compared to 35 wins expected when you calculate their chances using BSP so I've backed all his runners today as well.

Intransigent: 11th (16/1)

Max Zorin: 3rd (25/1)

Duretto: 3rd (15/2)

Highland Pass: 2nd (7/2)

St Marys: 1st (14/1)

Great day for Balding today. Something to keep in mind for future meetings here.

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