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Snert

Snerts Speed Ratings

112 posts in this topic

I back horses based on my own handicap figures which are based on speed figures.
I know there are not many people who think these are any good so I would like to try and show that there is a future in this.
How do you think Timeform started -  I personally think it provides excellent ratings  - but it is far too expensive for me.
I will try and put out tips based on my ratings on a daily basis but I must confess that only 20% - 30% are likely to be profitable on past experience. 
This is why I personally don't back anything at less than 3-1 and preferably 4-1 or better.
Anyway to kick off - tomorrow I give you Magical Effect at Thirsk  2.30 - around 3-1 
Won Last time out which is normally a negative for me but I think he can go in again this time.

vikki37 likes this

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I love a ratings thread, good luck with it @Snert

Your strike rate would compare with most of what i have seen, like you say its just about being selective and getting to know the ones that count.

:ok

Snert likes this

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No excuses for Magical Effect yesterday - only 2nd.

Nice spirint at Newmarket 2.55 but my equal top 3 ratings are Projection, Eastern Impact and Captain Colby. 
At current prices of around 9/2, 5/1 and 10/1 only Captain Colby looks tempting for me in a very competitive looking race

For my main bet I'm going to Hamilton where Portland Street looks a solid e/w bet to me @ 7/1 - 8/1.

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Thanks Billy - ran well but not good enough to beat Zylan - came in 2nd.

Not much of interest for me today although for the Naps competition I've gone for Parkour at Chelmsford  7.10. I just think he has as much of a chance as any at a decent price (7/1 generally) in an open looking race with only 7 runners.

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Only one race of interest for me today at Ayr  4.30
I have very similar ratings for Ionization, Glengarry and Chaplin Bay and with Chaplin Bay receiving a fair bit of weight from the top 2 he has to be my bet (5/1 generally)
With only 7 runners now I just hope it doesn't end up a slow run tactical race as this makes my speed ratings virtually useless as they are based on the races being run at a decent pace - here's hoping.

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Some interesting racing today but nothing stands out as a bet so I'm giving it a miss
Chaplin Bay didn't look interested yesterday and just trotted around at the back - never got involved.

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Catterick  5.15  Silvanus


This race looks between Oriental Relation and Silvanus with Pearl Acclaim and Bosham the main dangers and I'm looking for Silvanus to gain compensation for an unlucky run last time out if still in the same form.


Oriental Relation has won his last 2 runs in fast times and on past form one or two fast times are followed by a slow one so I think he's worth taking on - I can't find 3 fast times in a row in my records.
Bosham looks better on the a/w (only 2 from 29 wins on turf) so Pearl Accclaim might be the biggest danger.

Catterick  3.45   Coronation Day is hard to oppose in the 3.45 but current odds of 13/8 are not for me.

Chester  3.00  This looks between Areen Heart and Mutawatheb to me but I can't decide which. If you have a preference for one then I wouldn't put you off having a bet.

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Ripon  7.05    Mishaal  e/w

If this was over 5f I would be backing Lathom but I'm not convinced the extra furlong will help.
If any rain falls then Straightothepoint looks the best option (at a poor price) but as it stands with the going Good/Firm I'll take Mishaal at a healthy 15/2 - 8/1 e/w 

Silvanus beaten by Bosham into 2nd place yesterday - no excuses, while Mutawatheb won well with Areen Heart 3rd
 

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Picked a dud yesterday but hoping for better today 

I like the chance of Fastnet Tempest and George William in the 4.00 at Ascot but I'm not keen on the odds of the favourite so my choice would have to be George William @ 11/1 - 12/1 e/w

I also like the chance of Black Bess in the 4.50 at Lingfield @ 6/1 - 7/1

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Black Bess did the business while Fastnet Tempest beat George William into 2nd place - good finish to the week with no flat racing tomorrow I'll be back on Monday.

BillyHills likes this

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Windsor  6.50  Sparkalot  7/2

A very interesting race where I have Sparkalot top rated but this was on the a/w - as long as he can translate this to turf he could win this.

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Sparkalot didn't sparkle yesterday - looks much better on the a/w.

Today I like the look of Spirit of Rosanna in the 7.10 at Chepstow - generally 8/1.

At Beverley 3.00 I wouldn't be surprised to see Jack Luey pit in a good run.

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Spirit of Rosanna ran a decent 2nd yesterday.


It looks interesting at York today with rain forecast for most of the afternoon so I'm going to assume the going will be soft and putting up a few decent priced options.

2.55    Lincoln, Northgate Lad, Flying Pursuit at 18/1, 12/1, 12/1

3.30    Hard to oppose Brando (5/2) but for places I like Suedois and/or Mobsta at 15/2 and 33/1 best prices and at 33/1 my first choice has to be Mobsta

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Lincoln and Northgate Lad placed while Mobsta just missed out - 4th

For Thursday  -  a couple of speculative e/w bets  -  but if the races were not televised I probably would'nt bet on either race so not a lot of confidence in them.

York  2.20  Soie D'Leau (10/1)
York  4.05  Murad Khan  14/1)
 

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I was right not to have much confidence in those 2.

For Friday   

Newbury  2.35   Captain Colby, Clear Spring

Captain Colby is my top rated but he put in a poor performance at Newmarket and the current odds of 12/1 look generous but he does need to bounce back to form.
If he has another poor run then Clear Spring would be my second choice ( around 6/1) and I'm having a saver on him.
 

 

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A couple of possibles today

Thirsk      2.45  Wilde Inspiration       11/2 generally

Newbury  5.10  Sinfonietta        6/1
 

I think both have a good chance of winning while looking decent e/w bets.

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Another losing day and not much of interest for me today. 

Only Southern Bell in the 4.10 at Ripon looks good on my numbers but with a couple of possibly improving 3y olds it looks tricky. As they should have to improve to win I'll stick with Southern Belle at around 6/1

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Southern Belle won yesterday

Tricky little race today at Windsor 7.25 where I think Dancing Star has a chance at 4-1 generally.

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Dancing Star ran well yesterday but only 2nd.

A couple of possibles today.

Newcastle  4.40       El Principe should be involved here at 6-1 generally.
Brighton     5.50       Looks like a good chance for Black Caesar at 10-3 generally

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Nice winner yesterday 

Not much of interest today but I think Go Amber Go at 7/4 is worth taking on at Bath 1.40. The main contenders look like Bahamian Sunrise and Powerful Dream and as she's already a c/d winner on firm going I'm opting for Powerful Dream at 7/1 -8/1 generally

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