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Europa League > May 11th

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The second legs of the Europa League semi finals are next week and we have two sides who hold an advantage with Ajax winning their first leg over Lyon 4-1 and Manchester United edging their away first leg 1-0 against Celta Vigo. Can the teams in the lead hold it in the second leg? What bets are you looking at?

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As StevieDay said we have Ajax and Manchester United big favourites to go into the final. In my opinion is hard to believe that they will fail.

It is not a  problem about who will win the games or who will qualify. It is obvious that MU and Ajax are the BIG favourites. It is a matter about what bet is the best with the best value.  Would be easy to back MU to win and Ajax to qualify, eventually with an acc  and we have an acceptable 1.80.  The problem is that  will be done by 90% of the players and I bet all my bank that there is no value and after few alike "good bet" those players will be very sad.  

1. It is true, Lyon is not on best shape but I noticed that (especially at home) is "all or nothing" team. Unexpected lost games and games where scored a lot. Actually they scored at least 4 goals in 50% games at home in the Ligue 1.   

2. Will not be a very easy game for MU. What Celta Vigo has to loose? They reached semifinals, it is no difference between 6-0 and 0-0 ... so why not play the game of their  life? Also please note that MU did not won at home in Premier 11 games out of 18 - too much for their status.

3. When in doubt is always better to back the underdog.

I am thinking to back "Celta Vigo to qualify" and "Monaco to qualify" each of them with at least 6.50.

At first sight seems to be risky (and it is - I have great chances to lose my money)  but if you read instead "99% of players think that MU and Ajax, have 90% chances to qualify and I do not agree with them" it looks OK



Edited by giraldi
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Lyon v AFC Ajax

Lyon: Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa (25/0 d), Emanuel Mammana (17/1 d), Houssem Aouar (2/0 m), Memphis Depay (15/5 m, cup-tied)

AFC Ajax: Daley Sinkgraven (24/1 m)


Manchester United v Celta de Vigo

Manchester United: Rojo (21/1 d), Fosu-Mensah (11/0 d), Shaw (11/0 d), Young (12/0 m), Ibrahimović (28/17 f, top scorer)

Celta de Vigo: Planas (11/0 d, doubtful), Rossi (18/4 f), Hjulsager (6/0 m, cup-tied)


Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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I expect to be a repeat of the first match, with few goals and a few phases in front of the two foes, I do not think the Mourinho team will allow to question its superiority, I will go again with the few goals
MANCHESTER UNITED vs RC CELTA DE VIGO @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.95

I expect the same match as the first game, Lyon is forced to play aggressively because he needs three goals to qualify, so Ajax can find open spaces and score, it can become an open game with many goals
OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS vs AJAX AMSTERDAM @@ Both team to score, odds 1.40

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Europa League:

There have been under 3 goals scored in Manchester United 's last 6 games in Europa League.
Manchester United are undefeated in their last 16 home games.
Celta Vigo have lost their last 4 games.
Lyon have scored in each of their last 18 home games.

Interesting Football Betting Streaks for 11.05.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-11-05-2017

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There's nothing left to win or lose for Lyon in Ligue 1, so this is the game of the season for them. Ajax have a bad record away from home and Lyon came back from a deficit and won 3-2 just 4 days ago. Lyon to win.

No value on United. For United and Mourinho it is about reaching the final and not winning the game. They haven't shown a lot of killer instinct in front of the goal and both teams will be very cautious. Celta know that it will be almost impossible to come back if they concede first and United already have the away goal to put them through. Hate playing Unders but it looks like the best bet. Will stay away though.

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I've been playing unders on united the whole season and it has really paid off. Celta didn't impress me in the first game even if they created a few half good chances. They might need to take some risks today as the game progresses and they certainly are able to score a goal but i don't think Celta will play ultra offensive from the first whistle. 

United will probably be careful and try to control the game. My bet is under 2,5 (1.87).

Lyon - Ajax is a different game. Lyon has to score at least 3 goals to proceed to the final and has nothing to lose. Ajax just needs to defend and play counters and they should proceed easily. These are high scoring teams but 4 goals in a second leg of the semi is a lot! And if Ajax defends well then this game will be over by half time. With that setup I will go against the mainstream and try under 3,5 (1,95)

Edited by DW_United
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