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Champions League > May 9th & 10th

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The second legs of the Champions League semi final matches are next week and it appears that both ties are all but done and dusted. Juventus take a 2-0 lead into their home leg with Monaco facing a near impossible task of needing to win by two clear goals in Turin to qualify for the final. Atletico Madrid also face the impossible entering their second leg with a 3-0 deficit against Real Madrid.

So I think we can all agree we will be looking at a range of markets that we wouldn't usually for these games. What are we all thinking here guys?

@vasilli07, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @DrBetter, @LePapo, @Duuc, @DrO, @immortal--, @Notorious, @betcatalog, @KingSoccertips, @discipline, @Pep004, @andrewcalo, @HastGill1, @ElPrincipito007, @salmonman, @DW_United, @allthethings, and @WinningAdvice.

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after the first leg we can say the semis are done and dusted. can't see monaco scoring more than once in italy, BTTS would be an interesting idea given monaco need to score but juve defence seems unbreakable, what's more in the first leg monaco didn't play but juve showed their quality and won it with relatively ease. so i think i'd stay away from this match maybe some funbet but nothing serious.

the other semi is already decided IMO, atleti was awful dismal etc in the first leg. they never threatened real. it was really dissapointing but real played a good match, they were effective, they defend well and tbh in the first half they should've score more than once. now in the second leg, i don't know what to expect from atleti, it will be the last CL match in Vicente calderon and they face their biggest rivals. i was tempted by atleti no draw but the first leg performance puts me off a bit. it will depend on how madrid face this match, given the first leg result i think they can rest some players. they will face sevilla celta and malaga in one week. sevila and celta seem the biggest thread to madrid so i think ZZ will rest some key players for the decider against sevilla and celta, and if madrid play with a second team i think atleti can take advantage of that.

atleti no draw is at around 1.8-1.9 and it will be value if zz says they won't play with their main team.

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The first game was as I expected it, Juventus to rely on her defensive performance and Monaco on her aggressive talent, one of which I expect today, I do not think the host will allow several phases ahead of her home because she is well aware that the attack on Monaco can break you down. I'm expecting a closed game with few goals, I give a little more than 50% to under 2.5 is worth and in my opinion it has to be played
JUVENTUS TURIN vs AS MONACO @@ +2.50 Under, odds 2.00

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My only bet would be on under 2.5 in the Juve v Monaco match. Yes the (a) side have nothing to lose and will go all out for goals but just one from Juve will kill the tie stone dead and all attacking intent will be zapped from both teams (if Juve have any in the 1st place).

The hosts are too strong at home and psychologically they have Monaco in the palm of their hand.

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Champions League:

Juventus have seen under 3 goals in their last 4 games against Monaco in all competitions.
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in their last 6 games in Champions League.
Juventus are undefeated in their last 13 games in Champions League.
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 games against Monaco in all competitions.
Juventus have won 100% of their last ten home games, with 90% of them being by more than a single goal margin.

Interesting 12 Football Streaks for 09.05.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-09-05-2017

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I think that Monaco aren't tough enough to overpower Juventus and fight their way back into this. Juve can basically defend without a care in the world, which is what they love and other teams can't cope with. Serie A is as good as won. Their dream is the CL and with all their weapons up front, I don't see a reason why Juve shouldn't win again.

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My point of view on Champions league - Juventus vs Monaco

Let's start with some facts:
- this is second semi final of Juventus in last 3 seasons!
- Juventus was knocked out only once in last 6 semi finals.
- Juventus and Real Madrid are the only unbeaten teams in this season's CL.
- Juventus conceded only two goals in this season's CL and none of them have come through open play.
- Higuain has most prolific campaign of his career in Champions league, as he has scored 5 goals in this season.
- they have reached fourth semi final of Champions league. No other French team has made the last four more than once.
- Mbappe and Falcao have scored 10 of past 16 CL goals.
- In the first leg, Mbappe failed to score for the first time after having started a match in the Champions league.
- Monaco have never won in Italy in seven trips. They lost all except one match.
Match facts:
- Juventus have kept a clean sheet in their last 6 matches in Champions league.
- Juventus are undefeated in their last 13 matches in Champions league.
- There have been under 2,5 goals scored in 5 of Juventus's last 6 games.
- No side has ever overturned 2 goal first-leg loss in semis.
- Monaco haven't won any of three away matches in CL semis.
Juventus have won the first leg with 0-2 and Monaco is in front of mission impossible. We have seen some great come backs in this season of Champions league, but is it possible to do it against the as organised team as Juventus is? In my opinion, the biggest problem of Monaco is, that they have problems with injuries on most important positions of the team. Sidibe and Mendy are key players of the team, and last Champions league match, where they were both able to participate was against Manchester City. They passed BVB, but Juventus is much stronger, especially when it comes to discipline and positioning in defence. 
First match: As mentioned Juve won 0-2, but key point was in my opinion idea of Allegri. He surprised with 3-4-3 formation, with Dybala dropping deep in midfield and as Sidibe (left back this time) stayed on his position to cover man of the match for me Dani Alves, Bakayoko needed to stay with Dybala, and because of that Pjanić had an easy job in midfield. He played as maestro, but he was practically free. He was delivering passes from side to side, feeding attackers, wingers, everyone on the pitch. Monaco needed time to adapt to surprise of Allegri. Even Lemar was coming inside to cover midfield of Juventus, but in this case Alves was even more free on "his highway" on right flank. When it looked that Monaco succeeded with adapting to Italians tactic, Dani Alves made his run, and let the ball for Higuain, who took advantage of sleepy Bakayoko and scored. Monaco didn't play bad. They created some decent chances, and they could easily score, but it wasn't their best day in the box. Falcao scored from impossible positions in this season, but he didn't succeed to beat Buffon. Despite the age of Mbappe, he was most dangerous man of Monaco. He had some great moves, but his tries were stopped by amazing Gigi as well. Second goal came after another mistake of Bakayoko, who was pressed by Dani Alves in midfield, and right before the end of the action, Alves assisted Gonzalo for second goal of the match. Once again, we cannot say that Monaco played bad. Both goals came after counter attack of Juventus, but their defence was beaten few times, and if Monaco's conversion rate would be on the level as it was on previous matches, they would have scored maybe even twice. In my opinion, Jardim made mistake with Dirar on RB position. Sidibe is much more dangerous on his, right side, and Almamy Toure is highly capable of playing on LB, even though he is right full back as well. Monaco's amazing tactics were crushed because of that, and their full backs weren't as dangerous as we were used to see in previous matches. Dirar is more or less winger and he had a lot of problems with both - Mandžukić and Sandro and as Bernardo Silva was the guy in front of him, physically both Juventus players were in big advantage.
What can we expect today? For me, the biggest question is if Mendy will be prepared to play or not. That would mean that both of them (Sidibe) would be on their positions and with their pace, strength, and ability to move forward both wing backs of Juventus - Alves and Sandro will need to be much more focused on defensive assignments, while on the other hand there will be more space for individual actions of Lemar and especially Bernardo Silva. Monacao succeeded to make Higuain look terrible in start of the match, but they made to many mistakes in positioning and Argetinian took an advantage of that. And now Bakayoko. His goal against Man City brought them to quarter finals, his performances in this season were amazing till first leg against Juventus, and he will need to prove that it was just a bad day for him, because he shown all his weaknesses in this match. He was more or less responsible for both goals of Juventus and if there were clubs, willing to give 50M and more for this player,  now they are in big doubts about it. He has chance to prove his quality and as he was rested in league, I am pretty sure that he will start the match, even if right after first-leg I thought that experienced Moutinho will play in his role on second match. Juventus have everything in hands. I wouldn't be surprised if they will show up with similar lineup, but with much more defensive oriented Alex Sandro and Dani Alves, so their lineup will look more like 5-4-1, maybe even with Cuadrado in front of Dani Alves, as Columbian played great in defensive role against Barcelona. Khedira is coming back as well, so Allegri will have some options more for midfield. Of course Juventus is stronger and especially more experienced squad which knows how to take advantage of a bad moment of opponent, and that's the biggest problem for Monaco. As I said right after the draw for semis, Monaco will face the toughest opponent for them. Both teams for Madrid would be easier matchup for their style. 
What to bet? As you I believe, you are already used to... I won't have any official pick on Champions league. Especially not in this stage of tournament. Odds 1,70 looks pretty solid for Juventus, but I cannot drop the feeling, that Monaco exposed them too many times in the first match, where they weren't on their level. If Jardim will have Mendy back, I am pretty sure that they will cause them even bigger problems and then, even against almighty defence of Juventus, everything can happen. If Mendy will play, I would go with Monaco to score, but odds are simply too low. Looks that bookmakers are afraid of Monaco goal as well. Pinnacle is offering @1,826 for Monaco to score more than 0,75 goals, which means that they need to score twice, that bet is completely won. Is value in opposite site? Maybe, but I wouldn't risk with that.
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Juventus rested important players for this game. They want this one. This isn't Barca in Camp Nou, it's Monaco in their own stadium in Turin. 

Ligue 1 sides are overrated. Falcao and Mbappe will crumble when they feel the toughness of a top class Italian defense away from their cozy beach front stadium and Higuain and Dyballa will finish the job.

Edited by discipline
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Bah... Dirar in first lineup again, and with Raggi behind him. Toure out as well, and Mendy on the bench. Obviously not fit enough. :$

edit: maybe Sidibe will start on right anyway, and Raggi on left, as against Dortmund on first match. Anyway, with Sidibe on right, Silva will have more space and be more dangerous.

edit2: in official lineup on uefa.com is shown, that Sidibe will be on the left and Raggi on the right. Raggi is left footed, left full back or central defender, while Sidibe is right footed, right full back/wing back. Jardim qu'est que tu fais?

Edited by Pep004
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There is no question of qualifying in my opinion, but I expect Atletico to be more aggressive and, moreover, Real does not keep a goal for a second match, so I will propose the goals goal
ATLETICO MADRID vs REAL MADRID @@ Both team to score, odds 1.61

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Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid 

This time i'll try total goals over 2.5 @ 1.75
Hosts are desperate to commit everything forward and i think this could leade to goals galore match.
Atletico need goals to have any hope, while Madrid have a superb scoring record. Indeed, this bet paid out in 17 of Los Blancos' last 18 games in all competitions, and even if they score early to kill the tie on Wednesday they will still look for goals to underline their superiority.  

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A best possible scenario game for Real Madrid. They don't have to do anything for the game themselves and can score on the counterattack. Zidane loves this because it's his football philosophy. Play shit football and win.

Atletico will hopelessly try to make the impossible happen and Real will score. Real to score more than 1.5 goals looks good to me.

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3 hours ago, discipline said:

Woeful performance of Real but typical Zidane game. If it wasn't for Savic' idiotic defending against Benzema, they along with their lucky coach would have been knocked out of the competition. 

Won't be so lucky against Juventus in the finals.

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7 hours ago, vasilli07 said:

Won't be so lucky against Juventus in the finals.

Hope so. But with Zidane's luck as a coach half of Juve's first team will be out injured on June 3rd. That and/or Ramos heads one in in the last minute to tie it and then they get awarded a penalty which Ronaldo converts after being completely invisible during the game. 

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Unfortunately it's true. With in my opinion best full backs in the world, and with currently one of top if not the best creative midfielder in the world (Isco), who is playing only because of Bale's injury (let's be honest), and with Ronaldo moved to attacker role (4-3-1-2), this Real will be seriously tough to beat. Zizou knows how vital was Makelele for their team, and that's why he is playing with Casemiro no matter what. A lots of coaches would start woth Isco, Kroos, Modric as 3 in midfield, but they would be much more vulnerable. It's true that it might be interesting if we'll see a yellow card for Casemiro in first 15mins, but for now, he was pretty lucky with referees. Well.. Even if I would like to see Buffon raising the trophy, I think that it will be really tough. Juventus allowed pretty lots of chances for Monaco..


And besides.. "forcing" Atletico is nonsense. They are among the poorest teams in buildup, and it would be bad for football that team with their style would win the CL. But again, that's my point of view.

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If Vidal had converted that penalty, Real wouldn't have even reached the semis. Don't need to mention the robbery that Bayern had to witness in the return leg. And Barca is having the worst season in a long time (still beat Real 3-2 in their own Stadium lol). And that's the only reason why Real might win the league. Zidane is one of the luckiest coaches. It hurts to see great footballers play his shitty style of football, and get rewarded. 

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