StevieDay1983

Weekend > May 5th - 8th

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31 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Same with Leicester to beat Watford - 4/7, really? Watford have been awful away, but again I just think it's another one of those matches where it's that stage of the season, both teams playing for nothing and nothing would surprise me. :\ 

Yes we're well into silly season but don't forget the ELO - a 2.5 goal advantage to Leicester :eek

Can't really blame the markets for pricing it the way they have from ratings perspective.

It's a game I don't want to get involved with but I agree that backing Leicester @ 4/7 is no value despite ELO.

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1 minute ago, Mindfulness said:

Yes we're well into silly season but don't forget the ELO - a 2.5 goal advantage to Leicester :eek

Can't really blame the markets for pricing it the way they have from ratings perspective.

It's a game I don't want to get involved with but I agree that backing Leicester @ 4/7 is no value despite ELO.

Time to hit Summer Leagues and South America. ;) 

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On 2017-5-4 at 0:32 PM, Sir Puntalot said:

7/1 on West Ham is absolutely ridiculous - these teams hate each other and West Ham have a history of turning them over. My head says Spurs will win, but my head also tells me they are massively underpriced!

:unsure:unsure:unsure 

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Can Arsenal win ? Seems that they still have chance to get into top 4

They only played 33 matches, still have 5 matches to go (maximum 15 points)

Looking back at the past 6 seasons, at current stage Arsenal is at either 3rd or 4th position. Today they are at 6th.

What is worrying is at the final third of the season (last 12 matches) for the past 6 seasons, Arsenal was able to maintain consistency in form, but this 2016-17 season has been the opposite as Arsenal did better in the first 12 matches. They have already lost 4 matches since matchweek 26 - They never lose more than 3 out of the final 12 matches for the past 6 seasons.

Under Arsene Wenger, they have never ever lost more than 3 out of the final 12 matches except on the season when he took over (1996-97)

Probably the closest comparison is from 2013-14 season where the team was shaky from matchweek 26 to 33 (DWLWLDDL) before recording 5 wins out of 5. But having said that, they were already in top 4 positions by then.

Edited by mrclubbie

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HULL v SUNDERLAND

Hull at odds of 1.45 to beat Sunderland says it all.

It is a terrible price, but the bookmakers are convinced of the home win here.

Sunderland have been terrible away all season. They have picked up 2 wins and a draw from 16 games. They have failed to score 9 times on the road. This squad is so poor, that they could drop right through the Championship next season, straight into League 1. 

Another set of interesting stats regarding Hull at home this season. Against teams ranked 9 to 20 at home (11 teams) this season, Hull have lost just once. They have 7 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss. Their real problem has been away from home where they have lost 12 times to the top 15 teams picking up just 3 points. 

What has really pissed me off with Moyes, is that he has tried nothing this season.  They have been the same stale, uninspired team all season, and have never given it a go. Losing does'nt bother me, as long as I have given myself a chance to WIN. But losing with NO UPSIDE is laughable. You kill a little more of yourself every time you do it...

I would like to see the PRE LEAGUE TABLE PREDICTIONS forum again. The one where people suggested there league table.

All of the following bets will be reasonable here

Hull HT/FT - Odds 2.2
No to BTTS - Odds 1.8
Under 2.5 goals - Odds 1.95
Hull Win to Nil - Odds 2.25

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Can Arsenal win ? Seems that they still have chance to get into top 4

They only played 33 matches, still have 5 matches to go (maximum 15 points)

Looking back at the past 6 seasons, at current stage Arsenal is at either 3rd or 4th position. Today they are at 6th.

What is worrying is at the final third of the season (last 12 matches) for the past 6 seasons, Arsenal was able to maintain consistency in form, but this 2016-17 season has been the opposite as Arsenal did better in the first 12 matches. They have already lost 4 matches since matchweek 26 - They never lose more than 3 out of the final 12 matches for the past 6 seasons.

Under Arsene Wenger, they have never ever lost more than 3 out of the final 12 matches except on the season when he took over (1996-97)

Probably the closest comparison is from 2013-14 season where the team was shaky from matchweek 26 to 33 (DWLWLDDL) before recording 5 wins out of 5. But having said that, they were already in top 4 positions by then.

I'm not sure arsenal will do anything in this game. Let Pogba handle Ozil ( a complete mismatch), and Herera man mark Sanchez, and I  don't think Arsenal can score. I would'nt bet a cent on Arsenal here.

Last 7 away league games across Europe 4 teams have won 6 games and drawn 1 (Man United, Roma, Napoli and Celtic). Man United have conceded 2 goals and scored 16. Their defensive improvement is so subtle, bit-by-bit, that it has gone undetected. Like going to the gym for 4 months. You don't see changes on a day to day basis, but you know the difference at the end of the period.

They are a very difficult team to beat. Forget Mourinho's verbal war  and I'll rest everyone comments. They can still field a combination of

De Gea

Darmian, Blind, Smalling, Valencia, Jones

Pogba Herrera Mata Mhikitarian lingaard

Martial Carrick Rooney, Martial  which will probably get the job done against a clueless Gunners outfit

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Why or how would Herrera mark Alexis? Arsenal needs a scorer. Someone who will add 20-30 goals per season and add some assists on account of Alexis as well. They are somehow far from balanced team. I have feeling that they have everything and nothing at the same time. Their style of football is changing during the match, and that's not happening because of ta tical reasons, but simply because opponent can force them to play differently to easily. On the other hand, they are relying on individual role of Alexis too much IMO. 

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17 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

Why or how would Herrera mark Alexis? Arsenal needs a scorer. Someone who will add 20-30 goals per season and add some assists on account of Alexis as well. They are somehow far from balanced team. I have feeling that they have everything and nothing at the same time. Their style of football is changing during the match, and that's not happening because of ta tical reasons, but simply because opponent can force them to play differently to easily. On the other hand, they are relying on individual role of Alexis too much IMO. 

Simple, stop Ozil and Sanchez and ARsenal are toothless.

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It doesn't really matter who does it. Physically it's a good match-up (though Ozil is wimp, that gets easily bullied out of games). Jones could do it as well. Stop Ozil and Sanchez and it's game over ...

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2 minutes ago, neilovan said:

It doesn't really matter who does it. Physically it's a good match-up (though Ozil is wimp, that gets easily bullied out of games). Jones could do it as well. Stop Ozil and Sanchez and it's game over ...

I think that's a major problem for Arsenal. They have so many players that aren't being used to their full potential. As a Cardiff and Wales fan, I am fully aware of how creative Ramsey can be. He showed at the Euros how he can tear apart even the best opposition with generally average players around him. So why isn't he doing it at Arsenal? Arsenal shouldn't be so reliant on two players when they have so many technically gifted players. It's obscene. I really can't pin Arsenal down. I'm tempted to say it will be over 2.5 goals but it's a tough call at this stage of the season.

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30 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I think that's a major problem for Arsenal. They have so many players that aren't being used to their full potential. As a Cardiff and Wales fan, I am fully aware of how creative Ramsey can be. He showed at the Euros how he can tear apart even the best opposition with generally average players around him. So why isn't he doing it at Arsenal? Arsenal shouldn't be so reliant on two players when they have so many technically gifted players. It's obscene. I really can't pin Arsenal down. I'm tempted to say it will be over 2.5 goals but it's a tough call at this stage of the season.

 Arsenal's biggest problem is that they have to many similar players. They have a reasonable midfield, but it seems that players don't really understand their  roles. For me Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has been excellent almost every time I have seen him (only started 21 games). Yet they miss a Pogba (read Viera) type midfield general. One rock in the midfield lets everyone settle down and play around him. I can't stand Fellaini, but he holds the midfield well, and is doing a job there. WHo is doing this for Arsenal ?

Then Wenger is also playing the wrong formation. I think Arsenal would be well suited to a 4 3 3 . Play Sanchez, Walcott and Giroud upfront. They have 52 goals between them this season. Giroud has 12 in 12 starts, and gives them an extra dimension upfront (he scores goals with his head).

 

Edited by neilovan

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2 hours ago, neilovan said:

 Arsenal's biggest problem is that they have to many similar players. They have a reasonable midfield, but it seems that players don't really understand their  roles. For me Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has been excellent almost every time I have seen him (only started 21 games). Yet they miss a Pogba (read Viera) type midfield general. One rock in the midfield lets everyone settle down and play around him. I can't stand Fellaini, but he holds the midfield well, and is doing a job there. WHo is doing this for Arsenal ?

Then Wenger is also playing the wrong formation. I think Arsenal would be well suited to a 4 3 3 . Play Sanchez, Walcott and Giroud upfront. They have 52 goals between them this season. Giroud has 12 in 12 starts, and gives them an extra dimension upfront (he scores goals with his head).

 

It's meant to be Granit Xhaka but I'm not sure Wenger understands how to manage that position very well. Vieira was very self-taught and he also had help with Petit playing a similar defensive role with the Gunners reliant on the wing play of Pires, Overmars, and Ljungberg with Wright, Bergkamp, and Henry up front in the past. You allude to this by saying the players don't understand their roles. That's down to Wenger.

I'll be very interested to see how this match pans out. @neilovan, what's your bet for this game?

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41 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

It's meant to be Granit Xhaka but I'm not sure Wenger understands how to manage that position very well. Vieira was very self-taught and he also had help with Petit playing a similar defensive role with the Gunners reliant on the wing play of Pires, Overmars, and Ljungberg with Wright, Bergkamp, and Henry up front in the past. You allude to this by saying the players don't understand their roles. That's down to Wenger.

I'll be very interested to see how this match pans out. @neilovan, what's your bet for this game?

My bet here is under 2.5 goals at odds of about 2-1. If United win I think it is 0-1 or 0-2 which are 13-1 and 21-1 respectively

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20 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Hull 4/9 to beat Sunderland? Has the world gone mad? :loon 

Price always dictates whether you should back a team or not, otherwise you just can't win long term. I wouldn't back Hull to beat Hartlepool at 4/9, mental. They have been very good at home and will probably win, but don't be surprised if Sunderland pull off a shock here as there's no pressure whatsoever on them.

:loon 

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@Mindfulness I was really impressed by Kompany's playmaking abilities.. while on the other hand, Palace was disaster today. What is nothing is nothing. I had feeling that Fernandinho won all the duels in midfield. Stealing the ball really all the time, while Sane was simply too quick. I really like this player. I think that he will become even better in next years.

Besides... What do you guys think about Sterling? I mean, he is hard worker, doing what coach wants from him, but when he comes into position to finish attack, he is among the poorest in the league. I know that his conversion rate is not that bad (it was little bit above the average on last time I checked) but that's also because he is not shooting, but trying to dribble in impossible situations. And when it comes to shot, he looks like a 13-year old, totally without shot power.

Edited by Pep004

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      New customers only. Deposit and make a first bet of at least £20 at minimum odds of 4/5. Applies to pre-match or in-play single bets only. Should your qualifying bet lose, you will be refunded with a £10 Bonus Token.
    • £30 Free Bet at Dafabet! £30
      New customers only. Min bet of £5/€5 at min odds of 1/2 (1.50). Skrill is excluded for this promotion. Dafabet will match the first bet of qualified player up to a maximum of £/€30 if it does not win, as a free bet.
    • Grosvenor Sports - Double Odds First Bet! £0
      New customers only. Offer applies to Grosvenor Sports bets only. Max stake £20. Bets made with Odds Boost Token. Neteller & Skrill deposits excluded.
    • No Free Bet at Super Lenny £0
      Super Lenny is not offering a free bet currently, but is UK licensed and worth a look.
    • £28 Bonus at Fun88! £28
      Stake 6 qualifying bets of at least £10. Min odds 2.00, Multis 1.40. Min stake to qualify £10. Contact customer support to request your Bonus token and credited within 24 hours. T&C's apply.
    • Up to £1000 Acca Bonus at BetEast! £1000
      ALL customers up to a £1000 acca bonus. 4fold accas minimum. Email to claim within 7 days of settlement. T&C's apply.
    • £30 Bonus at OLE777! £30
      New customers only. Min stake £10 at EVENS (2.00). Place 10 qualifying bets of £30 and receive £30 bonus. T&C's apply.
    • £30 Bonus at TLCBet! £30
      ALL customers! Place 6 qualifying bets of £30. Min odds 2.00 and min stake £10. Bonus will be lowest stake of qualifying bets. T&C's apply.
    • Vernons Sports £0
      No sign up offer currently.
    • LeTou Bookmaker £0
      No welcome offer at present.
    • Marathonbet - Great Odds! £0
      No welcome offer currently.
    • Setantabet - Irish Bookmaker £0
      No welcome offer at the moment.
    • BetVision £0
      No welcome offer.
    • £20 Free Bet at Betfair Exchange! £20
      New customers only, bet up to €/£20 on the Exchange and if your first bet loses, we’ll refund you €/£20 in Cash. Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. T&Cs apply.

    Casino

    • £300 Bonus + 20 Free Spins at Casumo! £300
      18+. New UK customers only. 100% deposit bonus up to £300. Opt-in required. Minimum deposit £10. 20 Free spins on Starburst game upon registration. 30x wagering requirements apply for bonuses and bonus winnings before withdrawal (game weighting applies). Max bet applies. Terms and conditions apply. Please gamble responsibly,
    • £5 No Deposit Bonus at Energy Casino! £5
      18+ New players only. You must click through Punters Lounge link. Register, then email to get bonus. x50 wagering within 3 days and min £30 withdrawal. Geo restrictions apply. T&C's apply. BeGambleAware.org
    • £250 Bonus & 50 Free Spins! £250
      New players only. 100% deposit bonus up to £250 + 50 Free Spins if depositing min £10. Use Exclusive Code: PUNTER50. NO WAGERING needed on free spins!
    • 10 Free Spins + £200 Bonus! £200
      18+. New customers only, *10 Free Spins on mobile verification (UK Only), 3 day expiry on Free Spins. **100% deposit match up to £200. Available on selected games only. 7-day expiry on Bonus. 40x wagering (max bet £5) before Bonus Balance can be withdrawn. Wagering is with real money first. Game contribution weightings apply to wagering requirements. £10 min deposit + 2.5% fee (min 50p). Not available using Neteller or Skrill. Cash balance withdrawable anytime + £2.50 fee.
    • 25 Free Spins! £0
      New UK&IRL Customers only. Free Spins can only be played on eligible games. No wagering requirements on winnings. SMS verification required. Opt in required, full T&Cs apply
    • 30 Free Spins! £0
      New Customers only. One bonus per customer. 30 free spins added to accounts verified by SMS (x1 wagering). Free spins expire within 10 Days & on selected games only.
    • £100 Bonus - William Hill Live Casino! £100
      Opt-in required. Only first deposit qualifies. 100% deposit bonus up to £100, with 70x wagering on Roulette tables only. Min. deposit £10. Max. bonus £100. Bonus expires 7 days from issue. Player, country, currency, game restrictions and terms apply.
    • Up to £200 Bonus! £200
      New players only. Min deposit £20. Wager 40x before withdrawing. Game weighting applies. Max bonus betting limit – slots: £5, other games: 10% of bonus amount. T&Cs apply.
    • Up to £100 Casino Bonus! £100
      Min deposit £10. x45 wagering, Roulette and blackjack 50% weighting. Bonus Valid 7 days. No using Moneybookers/Skrill or Neteller as a payment method.
    • £50 Bonus + 20 Free Spins £50
      New UK&IRE customers only. Deposits made with e-wallets are not valid. Bonus wagering x35 on eligible games. Max winnings from bonus £500. Spins available after bonus is redeemed/lost. 10 per day with no wagering.
    • £400 Slots bonus + 100 Free Spins £400
      New UK&IRE Players only. Min buy-in £20. Bonus wagering 35x on eligible games. Spins available day after bonus is lost/redeemed, 10 per day for 10 days, no wagering.

    • £10 Risk Free on Liverpool v Man Utd! £10
      New customers only. £10 min bet on 1x2 markets. Refunds given 17th December 12:00. T&C's apply.
    • 2-0 Up - YOU WIN! £0
      Get your bet paid out as a winner if the team you back goes 2 goals ahead. Applies to pre-match single bets on Full Time Result market for applicable competitions. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only.
    • Money Back if 1 lets you down! £10
      Applies to UK & Top Euro leagues. Applies to match odds ACCA & Same Game Multi bets only. Max free bet €/£10 per day. T&Cs apply
    • 2-0 up - You Win! £0
      Applies to all Premier League, La Liga and Champions League games until 31st December 2018. T&Cs apply.
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