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Racing Chat - Saturday April 29th


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350 Punchestown 

Apples Jade 10/11 Coral
Gordon Elliott has done well with this mare this season and produced a shock to win at Cheltenham last time out to beat Vroom Vroom Mag and Lets Dance. This looks an easier assignment and its just a question of if she's had a hard enough season already.

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1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

Bet365 Gold Cup

Ratings

Screen Shot 2017-04-28 at 19.25.10.png

Very open looking race and for me Very Fine @ 9/2 looks no value  should be double that IMO where as BENBENS @ 20/1 looks way overpriced yes he is a 12yo and yes  had a hard race last week in the Scotts National but trip and ground suit and has STD on top if  Benbens has recovered from last weel ok  should outrun its price deffo the e/w play in the race for me also in that race SUGAR BARON 8/1 fell at the first i can forgive that seem a bit fresh and keen past form before that has been good and is from top quality yard a win bet for me but if im honest  wouldnt have taken any shorter than 8's in this tough wide open contest

Good Luck All

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4.40 Leicester: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

I was quite keen on Favourite Royal ten days ago at Wolverhampton but felt she might need the run, so didn't back her then. Her fast finishing runner-up performance was incredibly eye-catching that day, though, indicating this filly has wintered well and is well able to win a race of her current mark.

She was a very green and raw filly as a juvenile, with a bit of learning and filling of her frame to do. Now as a three year old you would hope that she can still improve a bit and I feel the 2lb added to her rating on the back of the last run might not stop her in a race that should suit.

The bounce factor is a question mark but given she has not a lot of running under her belt yet, this lightly raced filly seems likely to be well handicapped. 

Selection:
10pts win - Favourite Royal @ 11/2 PP

......

6.50 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 9.5f

Drago seemingly enjoys this track and the unique trip given he has quite a good record around Wolverhampton. He looks improved since fitted with a hood: his last four performances when wearing it were all very decent enough, and he's only 3lb higher than when winning over course and distance back in November last year.

He already has a run under his belt this season; arguably a pipe opener in a seller. I feel there is a genuine chance that he can still improve a bit over this CD and having a decent 7lb claimer in the saddle should be an advantage.

Selection:
10pts win - Drago @ 9/1 Bet365

......

7.05 Doncaster: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 4f

Top weight Mr Davies seems to have a tough task assigned on his handicap debut with 9st 9lb to carry, however this completely unexposed gelding could be on a lenient opening mark either. 

He got two runs in quick succession as a juvenile, was then put away and reappeared four weeks ago four weeks ago here at Doncaster over 10.5f in a maiden. From the widest draw he pushed forward, travelled well throughout but was entitled to get tired in the final furlong.

Despite never finishing in the money in three maiden runs his RPR suggest those performances are close to in line with his opening mark. It is reasonable to imagine that this big, scopey gelding can improve for his pipe opener and the step up to 12f for the first time. 

Selection:
10pts win - Mr Davies @ 11/2 PP

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Bet365 gold cup 

Vita du roc  99,12

Whats happening   99.09 

Vita du roc looks very well treated on some form and has the look of a horse that's been aimed at this race andnhenderson no mug so the 10/1 looks decent value today ...what's happening also could run well at 14/1 ...conditions suit so could also run well today ...nice value bets 

Vita du roc 10pts win 10/1 will h

What's happening 5pts ew 14/1 willh

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Ripon  2.45

The market suggests this is between Rousayan and Gurkha Friend but I think Dubai's Secret could get involved if tuned up for his return.
Although Rousayan has a good record fresh he's still 9 above last season's winning mark and hasn't won since.
Gurkha Friend ran well last time and might be involved - but so might a few others.
All in all I think this race is more open than it looks  and I'm having a small e/w bet on Dubai's Secret at 9-1 which looks a fair price.

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