Easter Fixtures > Apr 15th - 17th

[Mindfulness]

Not much else doing in the other games with 1X2 / AH. Crappy set of fixtures combined with accurate prices.

I take @Sir Puntalot point regarding Swansea ELO but maybe the figures are especially poor due the absence of Llorente? He should play today.

On paper Watford should be a roll over and die beach team at this stage in the proceedings but Mazzarri is a determined character. He was so fired up in that West Brom game, I'm sure he is determined to make his mark in EPL and have Watford finish as high as possible. They got clanked in that Tottenham game with makeshift centre-backs, problem should persist for Swansea game, can Swansea capitalise with tepid attack (of late)?

@andrewcalo will have a better read on it than me but if I was backing Swansea here I would be taking the DNB every time.

[andrewcalo]

1) We have Llorente back - he played the end of West Ham and that's when we started making chances.

2) Reverse fixture was 0-0.

3) We need the win, Watford don't.

4) We are due a result.

5) We generally get the result when least expected.

6) Watford are so-so.

7) Bookies have priced it accordingly.

 

Value bet is the DNB, precisely.

[andrewcalo]

Does anyone else fancy Burnley at 7.5? Seems massive.

[Sir Puntalot]

26 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

Not much else doing in the other games with 1X2 / AH. Crappy set of fixtures combined with accurate prices.

I take @Sir Puntalot point regarding Swansea ELO but maybe the figures are especially poor due the absence of Llorente? He should play today.

On paper Watford should be a roll over and die beach team at this stage in the proceedings but Mazzarri is a determined character. He was so fired up in that West Brom game, I'm sure he is determined to make his mark in EPL and have Watford finish as high as possible. They got clanked in that Tottenham game with makeshift centre-backs, problem should persist for Swansea game, can Swansea capitalise with tepid attack (of late)?

@andrewcalo will have a better read on it than me but if I was backing Swansea here I would be taking the DNB every time.

One man doesn't make a team I'm afraid, so I'm binning the argument and throwing it in the skip.  Swansea are poor and Watford are very underrated. If anyone is silly enough to think a Premier League team is going to be allowed to just turn up and fcuk around, then I'd have to question that bigtime, the fans won't allow it at circa £50 a ticket.

[CloughandTaylor]

Everton v Burnley.

Quite simply this is a match up between a home side with one of the best host stats, versus a spirited team with the most awful visitor stats.

Everton -1.5 AH, BF Ex @2.54.

 

Sunderland v W.Ham.

Sunderland are so poor that instinct would normally tell me that a WHam goal would be enough to win the game and i was initially tempted to take the 2.7 on the ammers.

One stat that interests me though is the performance of both teams versus bottom third of the table opposition. Sunderland have a record at home of 1-0-3 (conceding 1x2 and 2x3 goals in the defeats) and have not met such type of opposition at home since early February.  

WHam are 2-1-3 against this type away and only failing to score at Leicester, 4 at Swansea, 3 at Boro, 2 at Bnmouth, also scored once at Hull and Watford. 

Sunderland are a team devoid of confidence and almost as short on ability right now and can still only hope to take a point from a WHam side with quite a few key players missing. Noble suspended, Antonio, Obiang, Ried, and Ogbonna have played 124 first team games between them this season, and yet i still cannot see anything more than a point for Sunderland.

Draw @4.4 BF Ex.

[andrewcalo]

1 minute ago, Sir Puntalot said:

One man doesn't make a team I'm afraid, so I'm binning the argument and throwing it in the skip.  Swansea are poor and Watford are very underrated. If anyone is silly enough to think a Premier League team is going to be allowed to just turn up and fcuk around, then I'd have to question that bigtime, the fans won't allow it at circa £50 a ticket.

lol prepare too eat your words Sir Cuntalot!

[Mindfulness]

1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

Does anyone else fancy Burnley at 7.5? Seems massive.

I think Burnley +1 @ 1.98 is the fair price to be honest, I don't see much value in it. It's true that Burnley should put in a much better defensive performance at Goodison park compared to that Leicester team last week but even so. Burnley are just so poor on the road, Everton have so much more firepower, ELO reflects this with 1.5 goal advantage to home team.

You've got to ask yourself what are the reasons to back Burnley here? The price isn't really there when you think about it, team news isn't disruptive, no reason to think Everton are fading.

To me it's a shot in the dark.

[gabymnk]

5 hours ago, neilovan said:

Two interesting developments after the midweek games.

Crystal Palace are going to beat Leicester. Leicester have a real chance in the Champions League, and will probably rest 5 players. Their focus is totally on next week. This game means nothing. They are safe from relegation, and have no motivation here. Leicester in the Champions League NEXT WEEK is their once in a lifetime shot !

 

Shakespeare looks to rest only 2 players. Under this circumstances, I'll be going for the over 2.5 at 2.00

Good Luck to everyone !

[Sir Puntalot]

@andrewcalo100 lines "I WILL NEVER IGNORE THE POWER OF THE ELO RATINGS AGAIN"  

[andrewcalo]

*grumble*

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, gabymnk said:

Shakespeare looks to rest only 2 players. Under this circumstances, I'll be going for the over 2.5 at 2.00

Good Luck to everyone !

I was very surprised to see the line up. Really thought he would rest more.

 

Regarding Spurs, wow , are they playing well.

They are attacking their opponents in 4 or 5 different ways.

1) Down the flanks, playing a lot of give-and-go 

2) Through the middle with players running on

3) Through the middle with a target man flicking/laying off to the 2nd runner.

4) Wing-backs bombing down and overlapping on the flanks

They have plans A B C and D and just look brilliant  

[andrewcalo]

Despite the fact it fucked half my accas today, I really liked that Leicester went out there unchanged from their full line-up.

In this day and age of your overpaid prima donnas and moaning Mourinho's, I think this sends the right message, not least to Athletico.

[Icongene]

1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

Despite the fact it fucked half my accas today, I really liked that Leicester went out there unchanged from their full line-up.

In this day and age of your overpaid prima donnas and moaning Mourinho's, I think this sends the right message, not least to Athletico.

Atletico must be absolutely quaking in their boots after that message! 

[Magic0024]

Premier League:

Manchester United are undefeated in their last 21 games in Premier League.

Interesting 19 Football Betting Streaks for 16.04.2017 ,,, http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-16-04-2017

 

[Davor_92]

Not really a PL game, but thought more people will see it here:

 

COLOMBIA: Atletico Nacional - Envigado 2 @ 6.00, X2 @ 2.60

http://www.elcolombiano.com/deportes...gado-YA6332331

Google translated:

After the defeat with Botafogo, coach Reinaldo Rueda made clear that all efforts will be turned to change the situation in the Copa Libertadores and, therefore tomorrow against Envigado (8:00 p.m.), will use the young. "Against Envigado we will not have nor the alternate team, we will be with the juveniles," emphasized Rueda.

This becomes a new challenge for those under Nixon Perea, coach of the U19 category and who from the defeat against Santa Fe in the semifinal of the Eagle-2 2016 League was waiting for the rematch.

"We know the responsibility, because the team is close to ensuring the quota among the eight and so far has not lost," said Perea.

He is not mistaken because a green victory leaves him assured in the absence of 7 days to finish the phase of all against all.

Perea recalled that defeat in the semifinals, 0-4 against Santa Fe, was before the champion of the South American and that all parties are different. Among the juveniles are Háider Borja, Cristian Moya, Sebastián Támara; Rodin Quiñones, Juan Pablo Ramírez, Duvan Uribe and Andrés Sarmiento.

Nacional meets his best start in short tournaments, accumulates 11 undefeated dates, with a less match that will play against Junior on 26 April.

Atletico played Copa Libertadores game 3 days ago, and are playing another one in 3 days... Their U-19 team is nowhere near the level of serious, senior football and those few senior players are those who played very little so far. Guest win is very likely here, odds will drop A LOT soon...

Feel free to share

[vasilli07]

Arsenal -1 @ 2

I think Arsenal will bounce back today. Middlesbrough is just a horrible team. Their 6th best defensive record in the league is kinda of deceiving considering they are playing not to lose rather than to win in most of their games. They are always only hoping for a moment of magic to win their games. Now that they need to win games, they will need to open up and their defensive record will tumble as a result of that.

Arsenal maybe struggling now but they have beaten the rather poor teams like Sunderland, Hull and Swansea this season.

[Magic0024]

Premier League:

Arsenal have lost with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 4 away games in Premier League.
Middlesbrough have failed to win their last 14 games in Premier League.
Arsenal have lost their last 4 away games in Premier League.

Interesting 28 Football Betting Streaks for 17.04.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-17-04-2017

[NoFear]

20 hours ago, Davor_92 said:

Not really a PL game, but thought more people will see it here:

 

COLOMBIA: Atletico Nacional - Envigado 2 @ 6.00, X2 @ 2.60

http://www.elcolombiano.com/deportes...gado-YA6332331

Google translated:

After the defeat with Botafogo, coach Reinaldo Rueda made clear that all efforts will be turned to change the situation in the Copa Libertadores and, therefore tomorrow against Envigado (8:00 p.m.), will use the young. "Against Envigado we will not have nor the alternate team, we will be with the juveniles," emphasized Rueda.

This becomes a new challenge for those under Nixon Perea, coach of the U19 category and who from the defeat against Santa Fe in the semifinal of the Eagle-2 2016 League was waiting for the rematch.

"We know the responsibility, because the team is close to ensuring the quota among the eight and so far has not lost," said Perea.

He is not mistaken because a green victory leaves him assured in the absence of 7 days to finish the phase of all against all.

Perea recalled that defeat in the semifinals, 0-4 against Santa Fe, was before the champion of the South American and that all parties are different. Among the juveniles are Háider Borja, Cristian Moya, Sebastián Támara; Rodin Quiñones, Juan Pablo Ramírez, Duvan Uribe and Andrés Sarmiento.

Nacional meets his best start in short tournaments, accumulates 11 undefeated dates, with a less match that will play against Junior on 26 April.

Atletico played Copa Libertadores game 3 days ago, and are playing another one in 3 days... Their U-19 team is nowhere near the level of serious, senior football and those few senior players are those who played very little so far. Guest win is very likely here, odds will drop A LOT soon...

Feel free to share

what the hell happened here. Price never drifted, in fact it came in and atletico nacional won very easily 2:0

 

just interested whether that article was genuine or not.

[StevieDay1983]

20 hours ago, Davor_92 said:

Not really a PL game, but thought more people will see it here:

 

COLOMBIA: Atletico Nacional - Envigado 2 @ 6.00, X2 @ 2.60

http://www.elcolombiano.com/deportes...gado-YA6332331

Google translated:

After the defeat with Botafogo, coach Reinaldo Rueda made clear that all efforts will be turned to change the situation in the Copa Libertadores and, therefore tomorrow against Envigado (8:00 p.m.), will use the young. "Against Envigado we will not have nor the alternate team, we will be with the juveniles," emphasized Rueda.

This becomes a new challenge for those under Nixon Perea, coach of the U19 category and who from the defeat against Santa Fe in the semifinal of the Eagle-2 2016 League was waiting for the rematch.

"We know the responsibility, because the team is close to ensuring the quota among the eight and so far has not lost," said Perea.

He is not mistaken because a green victory leaves him assured in the absence of 7 days to finish the phase of all against all.

Perea recalled that defeat in the semifinals, 0-4 against Santa Fe, was before the champion of the South American and that all parties are different. Among the juveniles are Háider Borja, Cristian Moya, Sebastián Támara; Rodin Quiñones, Juan Pablo Ramírez, Duvan Uribe and Andrés Sarmiento.

Nacional meets his best start in short tournaments, accumulates 11 undefeated dates, with a less match that will play against Junior on 26 April.

Atletico played Copa Libertadores game 3 days ago, and are playing another one in 3 days... Their U-19 team is nowhere near the level of serious, senior football and those few senior players are those who played very little so far. Guest win is very likely here, odds will drop A LOT soon...

Feel free to share

For future reference, please keep posts in their respective sections. We don't want the Premier League thread swamped with non-PL posts. Any future posts like this will be moved to the relevant section. If you want certain individuals to read a post in a section you don't think they will visit then use the tagging system using the @ function. Don't abuse it by relentlessly tagging in hundreds of posters though. Posts like that will just get deleted as spam. Don't want to sound like a party pooper but just trying to explain how things are organised to avoid chaos breaking loose. We've got enough of that with @andrewcalo running around! 

On to today's game, I've been reluctant to back Arsenal at all recently but I think they should get something here. Middlesbrough are arguably the only club that appear in more disarray than the Gunners right now. I think a solid win for Wenger's side should keep the questions over his future going one more week. I'm tempted to back Arsenal to win outright and might put an any time scorer bet on Alexis Sanchez. The anticipated return of Cech and Koscielny will help a lot.

[CloughandTaylor]

On 15/04/2017, 12:25:46, CloughandTaylor said:

 Everton v Burnley.

Quite simply this is a match up between a home side with one of the best host stats, versus a spirited team with the most awful visitor stats.

Everton -1.5 AH, BF Ex @2.54.

 

Sunderland v W.Ham.

Sunderland are so poor that instinct would normally tell me that a WHam goal would be enough to win the game and i was initially tempted to take the 2.7 on the ammers.

One stat that interests me though is the performance of both teams versus bottom third of the table opposition. Sunderland have a record at home of 1-0-3 (conceding 1x2 and 2x3 goals in the defeats) and have not met such type of opposition at home since early February.  

WHam are 2-1-3 against this type away and only failing to score at Leicester, 4 at Swansea, 3 at Boro, 2 at Bnmouth, also scored once at Hull and Watford. 

Sunderland are a team devoid of confidence and almost as short on ability right now and can still only hope to take a point from a WHam side with quite a few key players missing. Noble suspended, Antonio, Obiang, Ried, and Ogbonna have played 124 first team games between them this season, and yet i still cannot see anything more than a point for Sunderland.

Draw @4.4 BF Ex.

4.98 profit from Saturday.

Boro v Arsenal.

Boro are so poor recently that Arsenal can win and keep a clean sheet, this is a bet that i would rarely place on an away team but feel able to take a chance today.

Arsenal WIN TO NIL, @ 2.76 BF Ex.

[vasilli07]

2 hours ago, NoFear said:

what the hell happened here. Price never drifted, in fact it came in and atletico nacional won very easily 2:0

 

just interested whether that article was genuine or not.

Someone in another forum said he is trying to get people to bet on Envigado so that he can trade his position. He also posted this in the Premier league board.

[NoFear]

5 minutes ago, vasilli07 said:

Someone in another forum said he is trying to get people to bet on Envigado so that he can trade his position. He also posted this in the Premier league board.

That article seemed genuine enough and i fell for it.