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andrewcalo

Weekend > Apr 8th > 10th

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Betting at this stage of the season changes. One thing counts here 

MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !

Find teams that are motivated, either to win something (European places, avoid relegation etc). These teams will make you money.

Two middle of the table, nothing to lose or gain teams against each other will produce goals. They can't get into Europe, they can't be relegated, they are already on holiday. Just cruising the rest of the season, and trying not to  pick up an injury.

I really like Spurs to smack Watford in the early kickoff. I think it's a proper hiding.

HT/FT home win 1.73

Win to nil 1.83 Spurs

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

Watford +3 at 1.44 seems outrageous value. Watford beat WBA 2-0 the other day, have had an extra day of rest, and Spurs are without their top two first choice keepers.

In the reverse fixture Watford did lose by three goals, but in my mind this makes it a less likely probability this time.

also - arsenal crystal palace BTTS seems obvious - @Mindfulness?

I'm not so good a valuing markets that aren't 1X2 or AH. Best price at the time of writing this for BTTS (yes) is 1.68 so they're saying there's a 59.5% chance that both teams will score. I expect Palace to concede here as our defence is fairly makeshift atm. Can we score here? I really don't know. Arsenal are weird and inconsistent, who's gonna show up? 3rd game at the end of a 3 game week. I don't see much value in BTTS odds in this situation but don't let me put you off. If you feel you've got to go with it then go with it.

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18 hours ago, Tiffy said:

Oh that's a shame for the poor lad, but Between you and me, I never liked him much anyway!!

:drums (only kidding @StevieDay1983)

Happy for @andrewcalo to write a weekly preview and get others involved once the odds are posted by a mod. In fact, we'd love that. Just need to keep the posting of odds and ratings amongst mods so the forum doesn't get cluttered with double posts and confusing for members. :ok

Anybody loving this Tottenham annihilation of Watford?

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9 hours ago, neilovan said:

Betting at this stage of the season changes. One thing counts here 

MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !

Find teams that are motivated, either to win something (European places, avoid relegation etc). These teams will make you money.

Two middle of the table, nothing to lose or gain teams against each other will produce goals. They can't get into Europe, they can't be relegated, they are already on holiday. Just cruising the rest of the season, and trying not to  pick up an injury.

I really like Spurs to smack Watford in the early kickoff. I think it's a proper hiding.

HT/FT home win 1.73

Win to nil 1.83 Spurs

 

 

 

 

They're absolutely no value though and the motivation is priced in. I honestly don't agree and I've seen countless times, teams that needed to win, were shorter odds than they should have been and absolutely collapse, so I'd be very very careful!

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I remember a classic in regards to motivation. Norwich needed to win at Fulham to avoid relegation, were something ridiculous like 5/4 away from home and got absolutely spanked off the pitch, 5-0 - I'll never forget that and everyone and his mum were on Norwich because they "had to win" :unsure

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7 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

@Mindfulness what do you think on Palace tomorrow?

Looks totally primed for the Over 2.5 Goals to me. Arsenal can't defend full stop, but have to go for it to have any chance of top 4. Palace have to go for it and also can't defend. I can't see anything but goals, could be a cracker of a match! :ok 

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Paddy Power 

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On 06/04/2017, 01:29:14, andrewcalo said:

Bet of the week for me is Leicester to beat Everton over 2.5 and Leicester straight win. Everton are without Ashley Williams and Coleman.

I know Leicester have got Champions League on the 12th but without their two main defenders Eveton will be leaking goals. 

Handsome devil that @andrewcalo lol

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6 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Looks totally primed for the Over 2.5 Goals to me. Arsenal can't defend full stop, but have to go for it to have any chance of top 4. Palace have to go for it and also can't defend. I can't see anything but goals, could be a cracker of a match! :ok 

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Paddy Power 

I actually think Arsenal could get the win. It seems another classic Arsenal season. Just as they look out of the top four running they start to find some form. I think Koscielny is still out though and that's my only issue. Their defence is a shambles without him. They will need to out-score Palace. Palace are apparently without up to 11 first squad players and they don't have the best squad depth. I can see a 3-2 or 3-1 win for the Gunners.

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18 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

@Mindfulness what do you think on Palace tomorrow?

Can't really get a read for this game mate, there's just too much weird stuff with missing players etc. Sounds obvious but it'll come down to whoever shows up on the night. I just don't see a big error in the prices as things stand, I think markets are in the right region here. I'm just gonna chill and watch the game, see what madness unfolds, if any.

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Premier League:


Arsenal have lost with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 away games in Premier League.
Arsenal have lost their last 3 away games in Premier League.
Arsenal are undefeated in their last 9 games against Crystal Palace in all competitions.


Interesting 24 Football Betting Streaks for 10.04.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-10-04-2017

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Missing Zaha and Benteke is a huge double blow for you. I can see Arsenal doing some damage here if they score first. If you can keep them quiet for the first half hour then you might stand a chance. I don't think Campbell is cut out for the Premier League and playing him on his own up top is asking for trouble.

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24 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Missing Zaha and Benteke is a huge double blow for you. I can see Arsenal doing some damage here if they score first. If you can keep them quiet for the first half hour then you might stand a chance. I don't think Campbell is cut out for the Premier League and playing him on his own up top is asking for trouble.

zaha and benteke are playing as far as i can see. going with 2-3 to arsenal

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