Weekend > Apr 8th > 10th

[andrewcalo]

@skyblues88 any more advice for us this week? Your Villa -4 was only four goals short.

@StevieDay1983 what do you reckon on Swansea's chances of going down? I bet you must be secretly loving it you Cardiff-supporting bastard.

@andrewcalo you are always correct, 100% of the time, week in, week out. A true God amongst men. Brilliant, smart, savvy and constantly having to beat the women off with a shitty stick. Do you have any Grade A advice for us all this week you sexy beast?

@Notorious we don't see enough of you around these parts. Why don't you tell us what you think and then we'll get @Pep004 in here too so you can give him a wedgie.

@Pep004 turn round and bend over mate.

@betcatalog Είμαι στη Μύκονο σε λίγες εβδομάδες. Fancy μια πίντα;

@neilovan, @Bett, @zemo91, @Mindfulness, @Tiffy, @sajtion, @Judeksi, @Sm0k3rZ, @Bronxie, @KikoCy, @Duuc, @vasilli07, @allyhibs, @Dylan Lynch, @DW_United, @mrclubbie, @rashers, @allthethings, @KingSoccertips, and @CloughandTaylor. Was that you boys I saw in that gay porn orgy video on Redtube the other day? 

[andrewcalo]

Bet of the week for me is Leicester to beat Everton over 2.5 and Leicester straight win. Everton are without Ashley Williams and Coleman.

I know Leicester have got Champions League on the 12th but without their two main defenders Eveton will be leaking goals. 

Edited April 5, 2017 by andrewcalo

[Pep004]

Hahaha, I am coming just to say cheers and to throw a bone.  Besides.. great stuff @andrewcalo.  

Otherwise this league is still tough to watch for me. Seeing league leaders playing football with 9 players in the box, trying with 3-4 counters in 90 minutes, wingers are playing as wing backs, is making me cry. That's not for me, and I sincerely hope that football won't move into this direction, because I will start watching volleyball in this case.   Well, I don't like that, but some of you guys do, and it looks that it works in PL. But as long as it works, I won't try to be smart with some analysis, because it's more clear than anywhere, that you don't need the ball to win the match (and the league). Are stats of Chelsea and last year Leicester much different? 

For me, league is still overrated. Squad of Man. City is disaster, key arrivals are injured, while 90% of players are above 30 years. I don't know what is Guardiola thinking, but it's obviously in football (for me) that you cannot change 80% of first eleven in one season, and City needs exactly that. Except 4-5 players, all others are "rubbish". There is too many second choice players. On the other hand United is relying on 36-year old player, and it looks that Mou wants him to extend contract for one year, which is another "stupid" move for me. My favourite team here is Tottenham. I hope that they will win the league. They should have done it already in last season... 

 

Well.. I guess, that I don't understand this league, and that's all.  Peace out! 

[sajtion]

1 hour ago, Notorious said:

@andrewcalo

Nothing worse than having Liverpool cost you a grand. 

it's pity we both have to suffer side effects from that and that's why i will be backing stoke to beat the rats.

[andrewcalo]

I lost on Liverpool too ...

I'm particularly getting hard for Stoke and West Brom.

The Finn says ...

 

Edited April 6, 2017 by andrewcalo

[sajtion]

tony pulis will see 40 points mark for west brom as mission achieved this season and i am expecting them to lose tempo and motivation. they way southampton took care of crystal palace was pretty amazing. it had draw written all over it but in last few minutes they were rampant. i'm definitely on southampton to win

Edited April 6, 2017 by sajtion

[KikoCy]

Really not digging the games this weekend, not a lot of value and lot of coin flips.

Maybe BTTS for:

Everton - Leicester

Stoke - Liverpool

West Ham - Swansea

[Magic0024]

Premier League:

46% of Tottenham's home wins this season have been by more than a single goal margin.
Southampton have lost 53% of their away games.

Interesting 33 Football Betting Facts for 07.04.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-07-04-2017

[StevieDay1983]

These had been posted on the thread I'd started but please find them here. @andrewcalo, if you leave the posting of match odds topics to the mods to avoid duplicate threads being posted and causing confusion. 

[Judeksi]

I think I'm going to drop out from the Leicester bandwagon this weekend, I just think that the crucial CL match against Atletico Madrid has to be the match that they are aiming for now. But my bet from Premier League this weekend is:

West Ham - Swansea over 2,5 goals, highest odds around 1.87 (Marathonbet)

Both teams have been leaking goals recently. Swansea record of over 2,5 goals in 11 of their 15 away matches, whereas West Ham has had over 2,5 goals in 5 of their previous home matches. The only concern to me here is fatigue because of the midweek matches. On the other hand that tiredness could cause more defensive mistakes. Both teams are still fighting to stay in the league, so motivation for winning this match must be high for both teams.

[andrewcalo]

Sorry @StevieDay1983 I didn't expect people to take it seriously lol 

[Tiffy]

56 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

Sorry @StevieDay1983 I didn't expect people to take it seriously lol 

Loved it personally, they should let you do the write up every week!

[mrclubbie]

Middlesbrough vs Burnley - Middlesbrough 1x2

If they can't win the worst away team in league, they deserve to go down...

West Brom vs Southampton - Under 2.5

I noted that the games at Hawthorns between these 2 teams have not seen over 2.5 since 1980. Their encounters overall have been quite under-ish as well

Everton vs Leicester - Everton 1x2

Just a simple win for Everton. Home form cannot be ignored.

[sajtion]

i am on burnley to win their first away match tomorrow. middlesbrough are trying to play more open attacking football but after going entire season trying to prevent teams scoring i only imagine it will backfire again as it did versus hull few days ago when they conceded four.

[andrewcalo]

3 hours ago, Tiffy said:

Loved it personally, they should let you do the write up every week!

Let's vote on it and whoever loses is banished from the board forever!

[andrewcalo]

Right voting is over and there was only one vote I voted for myself so @StevieDay1983 pack your bags mate you're banished from the land - all fingers crossed and no dibs allowed so it can't be taken back.

sorry mate I really am.

p.s just reading the small print and the loser also has to emigrate so you will have to leave the country by the end of the week - hard lines mate 

Edited April 7, 2017 by andrewcalo

[Tiffy]

39 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

Right voting is over and there was only one vote I voted for myself so @StevieDay1983 pack your bags mate you're banished from the land - all fingers crossed and no dibs allowed so it can't be taken back.

sorry mate I really am.

p.s just reading the small print and the loser also has to emigrate so you will have to leave the country by the end of the week - hard lines mate 

Oh that's a shame for the poor lad, but Between you and me, I never liked him much anyway!!

 (only kidding @StevieDay1983)

[andrewcalo]

He's not kidding (he just told me via PM)

[andrewcalo]

The evidence, your honour...

 

Edited April 7, 2017 by andrewcalo

[Mindfulness]

 

[allyhibs]

@andrewcalo

As we say in Edinburgh. You're a fuckin radge.

[betcatalog]

Liverpool scored a great comfort and for this reason has the best offensive line in the division with 66 goals assets. But defensively suffers and does not allow it to get the desired results. Total has 22 to 31 goal goal and 10 in 15 goal goal away home
STOKE CITY vs LIVERPOOL FC @@ Both team to score, odds 1.75

[allyhibs]

Has to be Chelsea at 8/13 for me this week.

Bournemouths style will suit Chelsea, who will soak it up and pick them off on the break, a comfortable away win as Chelsea close in on the title.

[Magic0024]

Premier League:

Tottenham have won their last 10 home games in Premier League.
Tottenham have won their last 7 games against Watford in all competitions.
Tottenham are undefeated in their last 15 home games in Premier League.

Interesting 35 Football Streaks for 08.04.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-08-04-2017

 

[andrewcalo]

Watford +3 at 1.44 seems outrageous value. Watford beat WBA 2-0 the other day, have had an extra day of rest, and Spurs are without their top two first choice keepers.

In the reverse fixture Watford did lose by three goals, but in my mind this makes it a less likely probability this time.

also - arsenal crystal palace BTTS seems obvious - @Mindfulness?

Edited April 8, 2017 by andrewcalo

[neilovan]

Betting at this stage of the season changes. One thing counts here 

MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !

Find teams that are motivated, either to win something (European places, avoid relegation etc). These teams will make you money.

Two middle of the table, nothing to lose or gain teams against each other will produce goals. They can't get into Europe, they can't be relegated, they are already on holiday. Just cruising the rest of the season, and trying not to  pick up an injury.

I really like Spurs to smack Watford in the early kickoff. I think it's a proper hiding.

HT/FT home win 1.73

Win to nil 1.83 Spurs

 

 

 

 

[Mindfulness]

2 hours ago, andrewcalo said:

Watford +3 at 1.44 seems outrageous value. Watford beat WBA 2-0 the other day, have had an extra day of rest, and Spurs are without their top two first choice keepers.

In the reverse fixture Watford did lose by three goals, but in my mind this makes it a less likely probability this time.

also - arsenal crystal palace BTTS seems obvious - @Mindfulness?

I'm not so good a valuing markets that aren't 1X2 or AH. Best price at the time of writing this for BTTS (yes) is 1.68 so they're saying there's a 59.5% chance that both teams will score. I expect Palace to concede here as our defence is fairly makeshift atm. Can we score here? I really don't know. Arsenal are weird and inconsistent, who's gonna show up? 3rd game at the end of a 3 game week. I don't see much value in BTTS odds in this situation but don't let me put you off. If you feel you've got to go with it then go with it.

[StevieDay1983]

18 hours ago, Tiffy said:

Oh that's a shame for the poor lad, but Between you and me, I never liked him much anyway!!

 (only kidding @StevieDay1983)

Happy for @andrewcalo to write a weekly preview and get others involved once the odds are posted by a mod. In fact, we'd love that. Just need to keep the posting of odds and ratings amongst mods so the forum doesn't get cluttered with double posts and confusing for members. 

Anybody loving this Tottenham annihilation of Watford?

[Sir Puntalot]

9 hours ago, neilovan said:

Betting at this stage of the season changes. One thing counts here 

MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !MOTIVATION !

Find teams that are motivated, either to win something (European places, avoid relegation etc). These teams will make you money.

Two middle of the table, nothing to lose or gain teams against each other will produce goals. They can't get into Europe, they can't be relegated, they are already on holiday. Just cruising the rest of the season, and trying not to  pick up an injury.

I really like Spurs to smack Watford in the early kickoff. I think it's a proper hiding.

HT/FT home win 1.73

Win to nil 1.83 Spurs

 

 

 

 

They're absolutely no value though and the motivation is priced in. I honestly don't agree and I've seen countless times, teams that needed to win, were shorter odds than they should have been and absolutely collapse, so I'd be very very careful!

[Sir Puntalot]

I remember a classic in regards to motivation. Norwich needed to win at Fulham to avoid relegation, were something ridiculous like 5/4 away from home and got absolutely spanked off the pitch, 5-0 - I'll never forget that and everyone and his mum were on Norwich because they "had to win"