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BillyHills

Chinese Grand Prix

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Chinese Grand Prix (Sunday 7am UK Time)

This weekend the new F1 season moves onto Shanghai for the Chinese Grand Prix.

First staged here in 2004 and track is known for having one of the longest straights in Formula One.

Qualifying here is crucial to your chances and 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the front row, 6 of them from pole position.

58e0b5d1d89eb_ScreenShot2017-04-02at09.2

Reliability is excellent here, in fact we had no retirements last season (despite a Safety Car), which is extremely rare these days. It was even more remarkable being so early in the season with teams still on fact finding missions.

The average retirements over the last 10 years has been 2.9 and that stat includes 2010 when we had 7 non-finishers. It was a wet race that year and two cars didn't even get off the blocks.

Safe to say I will backing the 'overs' if the spread is right which goes against the grain for me. Same in football I dont like backing under 2.5 goals. I want to see goals, I also want to see plenty of action in a GP and that normally means one or two incidents and a few retirements.

Last time out in Australia we saw Ferrari come back to its best, I still think Vettel will struggle to beat Hamilton over 20 races but at least we seem to have a decent scrap on our hands. Red Bull will also improve no doubt but they may be too far behind to figure in the Championship by the time they get it together.

Best prices for the Title:

L.Hamilton Evens with Skybet
S.Vettel 6/4 with Bet365

Best prices for Chinese GP

L.Hamilton 11/8 W.Hill
S.Vettel 13/8 Skybet

:ok

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I like odds on Grosjean and Kyvat to finish top 10. Grosjean was doing well in Australia when he was forced to retire due to a water leak....I think he was seventh when that happened. And in the qualies he got the sixth best time ahead of Massa, so the car as he has said, has a good potential. He even said he felt faster than Williams. It'll be the sitxh time he drives here, he's managed to get 3 top 10, last year he retired and in the 19th place. Odds on him to finish top 10 are around evens, i think there's value. To me 7-10 place will be fought by 5 drivers and I think Grosjean has a nice chance.

Then I also like Kyvat top 10, odds on him are shorter , almost 1.90 but he made a good impression in Australia. Last year he finished third in China although he was driving a Red Bull. The year before he retired and in 2014 he finished 10th with ToroRosso. Like I said, five drivers will fight for 3spots and I have some doubts about Renault, I think the car isnt ready yet... so this might be a fight between 4 drivers for 3 places...

And finally, I like odds on Verstappen to finish higher than Raikkonen. Only problem is that I was a bit dissapointed with Red Bull perfomance in Australia, the car seemed to slow so I'll probably wait the first practices or maybe the qualifiers to see how the car is doing.

my early bet for this race is 

Grosjean to finish top 10 at 1.98

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On 04/04/2017, 00:00:30, LePapo said:

I like odds on Grosjean and Kyvat to finish top 10. Grosjean was doing well in Australia when he was forced to retire due to a water leak....I think he was seventh when that happened. And in the qualies he got the sixth best time ahead of Massa, so the car as he has said, has a good potential. He even said he felt faster than Williams. It'll be the sitxh time he drives here, he's managed to get 3 top 10, last year he retired and in the 19th place. Odds on him to finish top 10 are around evens, i think there's value. To me 7-10 place will be fought by 5 drivers and I think Grosjean has a nice chance.

Then I also like Kyvat top 10, odds on him are shorter , almost 1.90 but he made a good impression in Australia. Last year he finished third in China although he was driving a Red Bull. The year before he retired and in 2014 he finished 10th with ToroRosso. Like I said, five drivers will fight for 3spots and I have some doubts about Renault, I think the car isnt ready yet... so this might be a fight between 4 drivers for 3 places...

And finally, I like odds on Verstappen to finish higher than Raikkonen. Only problem is that I was a bit dissapointed with Red Bull perfomance in Australia, the car seemed to slow so I'll probably wait the first practices or maybe the qualifiers to see how the car is doing.

my early bet for this race is 

Grosjean to finish top 10 at 1.98

Great post. :ok 

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Hamilton starts on pole after a superb bit of driving to edge out Vettel. As we can see from the stats the pole sitter has won four out of the last 5 races and the number spot hasn't won since 2007.

As a result Hamilton is a 4/5 shot to lead all the way with Vettel at 15/8. Its good to see Ferrari maintaining its challenge but a worry that Raikkonen is so far behind making me think that this a rejuvenated Vettel bring the challenge to Mercedes rather than a much improved car. Problem with that is it may well be short lived if Hamilton wins two or three races early on.

Big news for Sunday is that it looks like it could be a wet race, not good news for my 'overs' bet!!! Great for the neutrals who want a dramatic race and I suppose also good news for Verstappen and Grosjean who have been stranded in no mans land at the back end of the grid. Verstappen is still only a 4/7 shot to make the top 6 from 19th on the grid.

The bookies are still 99% sure this will be a two-car race at the front by offering 12/1 on Bottas, its a third for a place and its very tempting when you think how far they are clear of the pack. I reckon Bottas should be around 8/1 at most so its still a bit of value, to me anyway.

Its generally 4/9 for a Safety Car but BetVic are offering 4/6, that looks pretty good if the weather forecast is right for anyone interested. 

In the points market I still think Danny Kyvat is being overlooked, he was a fair price in Australia and did us a favour and he's the same price here despite putting his car inside the top 10 on the grid and out performing his team mate in doing so. He has a Renault in front of him which are not that quick in a race so really ought to make the points even if Max does come charging through.

Bets

D.Kyvat Points Finish 10/11 BetVic
L.Hamilton Outright 4/5 Coral
Already backed: Number of finishers 'over 15.5' 5/6 Laddies

Value bets
V.Bottas EW 13/1 Paddy Power
Safety Car 4/6 BetVictor
 

 

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it definitely wasn't grosjean day , giovinazzi crash ended his chances of qualifying to the second round, forecast says there'll be rain tomorrow and at least we can expect a humid course so things might get a bit packed in the middle. kyvat did well today , ended up 9th and in my opinion he's got every chance to finish top 10 so as billy says 10/11 after qualifying is great value 

i'm a bit disappointed with rb , the car is slower than ferrari and mercedes, hope the team improve the car because if not it'll be impossible for them to compete  ...

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