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Dodging the bullet on U6.5

MrImpossible

By MrImpossible
in Glory Hunters

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MrImpossible

MrImpossible

Posted
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OK lads. For the last month I've mounted a system that rotates around the U6.5 goals EXCHANGE market. The objective is to do 700 successful bets and have enough money to buy a fast toy, like a Dodge Charger, ofc that will never happen but with 58 consecutive bets already won at least I already earned enough money to put for the deposit..... to test drive one (maybe a second hand one).

So the strategy is quite demanding and it follows a set of strict criteria but more importantly this strategy avoids several markets which I consider risky for the purposes of achieving my goal...which in reality is to carry on with the winning streak for as long as possible (I won't become rich at odds of 1.01!), I will try to summarise this as per below and I have tried to be as consistent and disciplined as possible to follow these rules:

  • No British teams (reasoning -> offensive style + poor defending = silly scores)
  • No Elite teams (too capable of scoring)
  • Avoid playoff matches 
  • Teams must have an avg inferior to 2.5 goals and show lack of finishing skills.
  • No teams that scored 4 goals in the last 10 matches (this criteria is followed for both teams playing the match not just one of them)
  • No teams that scored 3 goals on more than 2 of the last 10 matches (follows same as above)
  • No teams that conceded 4 goals more than 2 of the last 10 matches (follows same as above)
  • No matches between top and bottom of the league (teams must be relatively close in classification in the league)
  • No matches between opponents from different leagues with exception for national teams
  • Avoid European teams

Keystones:

  • If there isn't a pick available then a bet won't be rushed. I rather wait then rushing.
  • Insist as much as possible in the South American market. This type of football is known to be less dangerous and efficient attacking wise. 
  • Only bet on exchange where gamblers like to act as the bookie and will offer the U6.5 odds in these events. - Note that matches following the above criteria do not have a U6.5 goals market in a normal sportsbook and the best price one may get in exchange markets is normally 1.01. These events are also characterized by the fact that there isn't much money in them, even when the odds of 1.01 open. Normally there is only between £100-£200 in the market that can be matched however I will stick with the bet in play and hopefully someone will match whatever unmatched amount I may have during inplay.

I will try to post my daily selections before hand from now on, pls kindly understand that until now I had not shared this with anyone else surfing the web.

For now I have a bet on Nigeria vs Senegal, once that is complete I will post the full list of my bets. Let's see if I can settle a new winning streak record in this forum.

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MrImpossible

MrImpossible

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Posted (edited)

OK, not sure how this is going to look like because I can't preview the post but here's a copy paste of my excel.

I forgot to mention that I will be betting all my profits in each event, sometimes I may be short a few pence thats because those few pence won't make a difference to my returns at odds of 1.01 so I rather keep them for myself, I am that tight. So as I said, I will try to post everything before hand going forward.

 

No. Date Match Type Odds Bet Liability Profit Status
59 23-Mar-17  Nigeria v Senegal Back 1.01 84 -- 0.84 Won
  21:58:43 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
58 23-Mar-17  Penapolense v Rio Preto Back 1.01 83.68 -- 0.84 Won
  00:54:15 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
57 22-Mar-17  San Telmo v CA Fenix Back 1.01 82.89 -- 0.83 Won
  20:51:56 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
56 22-Mar-17  CA Atlanta v Deportivo Moron Back 1.01 82.11 -- 0.82 Won
  02:00:29 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
55 21-Mar-17  Comunicaciones B Aires v Talleres (RE) Back 1.01 81.34 -- 0.81 Won
  20:53:06 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
54 21-Mar-17  Portuguesa SP v Rio Claro Back 1.01 80.58 -- 0.8 Won
  00:54:44 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
53 20-Mar-17  Suchitepequez v Malacateco Back 1.01 79.82 -- 0.8 Won
  00:27:19 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
52 19-Mar-17  Lumezzane v Maceratese Back 1.01 79.07 -- 0.79 Won
  17:43:45 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
51 19-Mar-17  CSD Comunicaciones v Guastatoya Back 1.01 78.33 -- 0.78 Won
  01:52:57 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
50 18-Mar-17  Deportivo Anzoategui v Metropolitanos Back 1.01 77.59 -- 0.78 Won
  22:02:25 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
49 18-Mar-17  Barretos v Batatais Back 1.01 76.86 -- 0.77 Won
  01:02:10 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
48 17-Mar-17  CA Colegiales v Comunicaciones B Aires Back 1.01 76.14 -- 0.76 Won
  20:53:32 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
47 16-Mar-17  Envigado v Leones FC Back 1.01 75.43 -- 0.75 Won
  22:49:28 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
46 16-Mar-17  Marilia v Internacional Limeira Back 1.01 74.72 -- 0.75 Won
  00:49:09 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
45 15-Mar-17  Ceilandia v Santa Maria Back 1.01 74.02 -- 0.74 Won
  20:51:51 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
44 14-Mar-17  CA Puerto Nuevo v CSR Espanol BA Back 1.01 73.33 -- 0.73 Won
  20:57:57 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
43 13-Mar-17  Tristan Suarez v Deportivo Moron Back 1.01 72.64 -- 0.73 Won
  21:52:44 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
42 12-Mar-17  Guimaraes v Estoril Praia Back 1.01 71.96 -- 0.72 Won
  22:11:24 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
41 12-Mar-17  St Etienne v Metz Back 1.02 3.72 -- 0.07 Won
  15:53:11 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
40 12-Mar-17  St Etienne v Metz Back 1.01 67.53 -- 0.68 Won
  15:53:11 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
39 11-Mar-17  Comunicaciones B Aires v Acassuso Back 1.01 70.59 -- 0.7 Won
  21:50:04 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
38 11-Mar-17  El Harrach v JS Saoura Back 1.01 69.93 -- 0.7 Won
  16:01:09 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
37 10-Mar-17  Rubio Nu v General Diaz Back 1.01 60 -- 0.6 Won
  23:20:49 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
36 09-Mar-17  Sahab v Al Buqaa Back 1.01 64 -- 0.64 Won
  17:27:25 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
35 08-Mar-17  Malacateco v CSD Comunicaciones Back 1.01 67.45 -- 0.67 Won
19:53:50 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
34 07-Mar-17  Gornik Leczna v Zaglebie Lubin Back 1.01 66.81 -- 0.67 Won
18:52:04 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
33 06-Mar-17  Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi Haifa Back 1.01 66.18 -- 0.66 Won
20:54:42 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
32 06-Mar-17  Xelaju v Malacateco Back 1.01 65.55 -- 0.66 Won
02:01:58 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
31 05-Mar-17  Palestino v Universidad de Chile Back 1.03 63.74 -- 1.91 Won
22:58:12 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
30 05-Mar-17  KAC Kenitra v FUS Rabat Back 1.01 63.14 -- 0.63 Won
16:55:45 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals            
29 05-Mar-17  Monarcas Morelia v Veracruz Back 1.01 62.54 -- 0.63 Won
06:44:18 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals            
28 05-Mar-17  Chorrillo v Atletico Veraguense Back 1.01 61.95 -- 0.62 Won
00:58:46 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
27 04-Mar-17  FC Ashdod v Hapoel Beer Sheva Back 1.01 61.37 -- 0.61 Won
20:25:28 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
26 04-Mar-17  DRB Tadjenanet v El Harrach Back 1.03 5.69 -- 0.17 Won
16:25:18 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
25 04-Mar-17  DRB Tadjenanet v El Harrach Back 1.01 49.5 -- 0.5 Won
16:25:18 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
24 04-Mar-17  Coras Tepic v Alebrijes de Oaxaca Back 1.01 60.16 -- 0.6 Won
05:37:58 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
23 03-Mar-17  Raja Casablanca v HUSA Agadir Back 1.01 59.6 -- 0.59 Won
19:59:27 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
22 03-Mar-17  Al Buqaa v That Ras Back 1.01 59.04 -- 0.59 Won
14:57:51 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
21 02-Mar-17  Aves v Braga B Back 1.02 57.94 -- 1.16 Won
22:08:00 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
20 02-Mar-17  Tigres (Col) v Santa Fe Back 1.01 57.4 -- 0.57 Won
00:51:36 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
19 01-Mar-17  Dundee v Partick Back 1.01 56.86 -- 0.57 Won
21:38:23 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
18 01-Mar-17  Millonarios v La Equidad Back 1.01 56.33 -- 0.56 Won
17:18:59 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
17 28-Feb-17  Harbour View FC v Boys Town FC Back 1.01 55.8 -- 0.56 Won
02:58:29 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
16 27-Feb-17  Arouca v Belenenses Back 1.02 54.76 -- 1.1 Won
21:51:45 Under 5.5 Goals - Over/Under 5.5 Goals
15 27-Feb-17  Tolima v Envigado Back 1.01 54.24 -- 0.55 Won
00:27:52 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
14 26-Feb-17  Boavista v Porto Back 1.01 53.73 -- 0.54 Won
22:09:26 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
13 26-Feb-17  Santa Fe v Cortulua Back 1.01 53.23 -- 0.53 Won
20:09:37 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
12 26-Feb-17  FC Barreirense v Atletico CP Back 1.01 52.73 -- 0.53 Won
16:55:07 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
11 25-Feb-17  Rio Ave v Pacos Ferreira Back 1.01 52.24 -- 0.52 Won
22:22:41 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
10 25-Feb-17  Estoril Praia v Sporting Lisbon Back 1.01 51.75 -- 0.52 Won
20:07:30 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
9 25-Feb-17  Tondela v Maritimo Back 1.01 51.27 -- 0.51 Won
17:55:32 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
8 24-Feb-17  Benfica v Chaves Back 1.02 50.31 -- 1.01 Won
22:53:32 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
7 24-Feb-17  Wolves v Birmingham Back 1.01 49.84 -- 0.5 Won
21:41:34 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
6 23-Feb-17  Municipal Limeno v FAS Back 1.02 38.54 -- 0.77 Won
22:53:14 Under 5.5 Goals - Over/Under 5.5 Goals
5 23-Feb-17  Municipal Limeno v FAS Back 1.01 10.47 -- 0.1 Won
22:53:14 Under 5.5 Goals - Over/Under 5.5 Goals
4 23-Feb-17  Fiorentina v Mgladbach Back 1.02 48.1 -- 0.96 Won
21:59:46 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
3 23-Feb-17  Ajax v Legia Warsaw Back 1.02 47.2 -- 0.95 Won
19:53:00 Under 4.5 Goals - Over/Under 4.5 Goals
2 23-Feb-17  Corinthians v Palmeiras Back 1.01 17.39 -- 0.17 Won
02:49:13 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
1 22-Feb-17  Bristol City v Fulham Back 1.02 46.16 -- 0.92 Won
21:55:01 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals
Edited by MrImpossible
Adding the headers in red.
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MrImpossible

MrImpossible

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Posted

So, some analysis as well from my spreadsheet:

Avg Goals 2.10
Profit  £    40.54
Gain 87.82%

 

It took me a few matches to adjust my strategy to what it is now, you can see that my first bet was on english teams and a couple matches after on a champions league match (6 goals!!!) but ever since then the goals have been steady and low.

Of these 59 selections I have:

6 goals - 2 matches

5 goals - 2 matches

4 goals - 7 matches

3 or less - 48 matches

 

Which tells me the risk continues to be low, so lets keep it that way.

 

 

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KittenSprintClub

KittenSprintClub

Posted
Posted
On 3/27/2017, 4:48:20, MrImpossible said:

Ok given the lack of feedback and interest on this topic I will update this less frequently (every 5 or 10 bets) unless anyone is not OK with that

I am finding this very interesting, albeit, I am not giving feedback - however updating after the fact will certainly lose my interest

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MrImpossible

MrImpossible

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I also lose my interest if people haven't got input in this thread :-)

Here's the latest bets, I am unhappy at Portugal's bet, I didn't want to make this bet but didn't want to waste the day either, it went against my rules because Portugal had scored 19 goals in 4 matches and this would be a big no no any other day however I knew Portugal would play their kids (reserves) in this friendly based on their selection and Ibra wasn't playing, I just didn't expect these kids would concede 3 goals in 45min. This will shift my average to 2.24 and I am really unhappy with it! 

 

Latest summary:

Avg Goals 2.24
Profit  £    47.95
Gain 103.88%

 

Latest bets:

No. Date Match Type Odds Bet Liability Profit Status Result Goals
68 28-Mar-17  Portugal v Sweden Back 1.01 91.46 -- 0.91 Won 2-3 5
  21:36:14 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals              
67 27-Mar-17  Arezzo v Pistoiese Back 1.01 90.5 -- 0.9 Won 1-0 1
  21:39:26 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals              
66 27-Mar-17  Plaza Amador v Alianza FC (Pan) Back 1.01 89.76 -- 0.9 Won 2-1 3
  01:06:40 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals              
65 26-Mar-17  Sportivo Barracas v CA San Miguel Back 1.01 88.5 -- 0.88 Won 2-1 3
  18:52:57 Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals              

 

 

Today's bet

29-Mar-17 
17:12:23 		Sportivo Luqueno v Nacional (Par) 
Under 6.5 Goals - Over/Under 6.5 Goals 		Back 1.02 92.32
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