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Bet 13. Back Nadal to win at least a set against Alexander Zverev at 1.05 Betfair Sportsbook

I can't back Nadal to beat Zverev as the odds are too high, so instead I'll take this bet. There's no question that Zverev is the most promising young player on tour at the moment and his ranking reflects that, but with youth comes inconsistency and the one thing you must have if you hope to beat Nadal in straight sets on clay is consistency - particularly when it's a best of five sets match. Not only that, but Nadal looked good against Kohlschreiber and he'll be pumped up for this because he knows he has to win to keep Spain in the tie.

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I've found out what I can and it looks as though laying Oss is worth it tonight. They're in poor form away from home, they're missing a few players and Nijmegen have the best home record in the league. They concede less than a goal a game and usually score at least one at home so it looks as though the best Oss can hope for is a draw. 

Bet 14. Lay Oss to beat NEC Nijmegen at 15.

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I don't like any of the above matches but like everyone else it seems, I do think there will be goals between Manchester City and Liverpool this evening. At the moment the odds for one goal are too short and the odds for at least two are too long, so I'll be looking to take something during the match - either over 0.5 goals if the price goes out or over 1.5 goals if the price comes in. I'll post to confirm if I get involved.

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Tonight it has to be a lay of Sevilla. They haven't won a match since they got a result at Old Trafford, they are missing Kjaer at the heart of their defence and if they couldn't beat Bayern in their own back yard I don't see how they do it in Germany. Not only that, but Bayern rested most of their key players at the weekend meaning that they'll be fresh and ready to go. Holding a 2-1 advantage means the job isn't done yet and although a 1-0 defeat would see them through on the away goals rule, it's hard to imagine that Bayern won't score at least once given their recent record and the likes of Lewandowski in their attack.

Bet 16. Lay Sevilla to beat Bayern Munich at 12.5

 

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Bet 17. Lay Laaksonen to beat Isner 2-0 at 15.

I've been weighing this up for a while and I've decided to play it. Isner has a great record at the ATP Tournament in Houston and he's in arguably the form of his career, and although he's played a lot of tennis lately meaning fatigue could start to affect him I don't think he would be playing if he felt he needed a rest. Laaksonen has the advantage of having already played a match here, but it's not as though Isner is unfamiliar with conditions as he's been playing at this venue for a number of years. I can see Laaksonen taking a set in this one like he did when he played Isner in Davis Cup, but at the same time I can't see him winning in straight sets. Isner usually goes down fighting and the result of that is a lot of three set losses, so backing him to at least take a set seems like a fairly safe bet.

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Today's shortlist -

Liverpool v Bournemouth (5.30pm)

Boreham Wood v Chester (3pm)

Lyon v Amiens (4pm)

Bayern Munich v Monchengladbach (5.30pm)

Empoli v Pro Vercelli (2pm)

Dunfermline v Brechin (3pm)

Barcelona v Valencia (3.15pm)

Kasimpasa v Kardemir Karabuk (11.30am)

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Missed Kasimpasa and Empoli - wouldn't have backed either of them anyway I don't think. I'm going to give Barcelona a miss as well as Valencia are in fine form and I'm wary of a possible Barca hangover after the Roma game. I'm also passing on Boreham Wood so that just leaves Dunfermline from the earlier kick-offs. They're fighting for a play-off place against a Brechin side still yet to win this season and already relegated so this will be the next bet. I'm not on yet but will post to confirm when, and if, I am.

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From the last two games on my shortlist I've decided to lay Bournemouth against Liverpool. The reds should have far too much attacking power for Bournemouth to handle and they're full of confidence after the Manchester City result. Bournemouth are usually an attacking team as well, but that could play into Liverpool's hands as the only team to beat Liverpool at home recently was West Brom who are more defensive. The price to lay Bournemouth is around 16 right now and I want to lay at 15 so I might have to wait for the match to start before I can get matched. 

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I'm not touching PSG as their opponents Monaco are 2nd in the table and so should be competitive and I'm avoiding Juventus for the same reason I avoided Barcelona yesterday. I can't find out all that much about Basel, so that leaves Manchester United and Atletico Madrid. I'll wait on team news before making any decisions.

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The teams are in for Atletico v Levante. The home team have tweaked their starting eleven slightly but still look strong, whereas Levante have quite a few players either injured or suspended so it's going to be difficult for them to do what no other team has done and beat Atletico in their own stadium. I want to lay Levante at 15 which means I'll probably have to wait until after the match starts.

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