Torque Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 After Sunday's narrow false start on a goal in Arsenal's match against Aston Villa, I'm going to try again in their match against Nottingham Forest in the League Cup. They've made some changes to their team, which is common for them in Cup matches like against Frankfurt in the Europa League, but even so they should continue to carry an attacking threat at the same time as looking suspect at the back. Forest arrive at the Emirates in good form, and might even think they can win this against a changed Arsenal that are having such difficulties keeping a clean sheet. It's around 25's to lay 0-0 and I'm going to ask for 15 and let it go in-play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 Bet 12. Lay 0-0 between Arsenal and Nottingham Forest @ 15.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 This time I was just the right side of the first goal. Could have got better than 15.00 but not by much. Next stake £247.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 28, 2019 Author Share Posted September 28, 2019 For today, it's back to unders in matches involving Burnley. The teams are in and Burnley go with their usual defence, whilst Villa make a couple of changes from their last Premier League match against Arsenal. Since then, they've played in the League Cup and although most of the team was changed for that game it could have disrupted their preparations for this one, whilst Burnley have been focused on this match all week. The consensus seems to be for a draw here, and if that turns out to be the case then it's unlikely more than four goals will be scored. The Under 4.5 goal line is currently a few ticks above 1.10, but I've decided to take the safer option and back the Under 5.5 line. I'm hoping it gets nowhere near even four goals as Villa haven't been prolific this season and Burnley are so hard to break down, but if it does then taking this line rather than the lower one could be the difference between a winner and a loser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 28, 2019 Author Share Posted September 28, 2019 Bet 13. Back Under 5.5 goals between Aston Villa and Burnley @ 1.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 28, 2019 Author Share Posted September 28, 2019 Finished 2-2. Glad I was cautious. Next stake £262.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 29, 2019 Author Share Posted September 29, 2019 I want to get this up now so I'm not tempted during the course of tomorrow. I'm not betting on a goal between Manchester United and Arsenal and there's a couple of reasons why. Firstly, right now Man Utd don't look like they have much of a cutting edge to their team and so I'm not convinced they'll score, even against a defence as weak as Arsenal's. Secondly, if Man Utd do fail to score then it falls to Arsenal to do it but as the away team they're unlikely to dictate the play and so may not get all that many chances, despite their vaunted front line. Every time I've backed an Arsenal game to have a goal in it so far, it's been because I thought both teams could score and because I don't feel like that about this match I'm leaving it alone. There probably will be at least one goal - there usually is in this fixture - but if there isn't and I've backed one then it'll be a losing bet that I'll think I could have avoided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 (edited) So a couple of goals scored at Old Trafford in the end, but with the way the match panned out I was more than happy to have passed on it. It looked for all the world as though it would be 0-0 at the break and only a late goal for the hosts changed that. Prior to McTominay scoring you could lay 0-0 at a little less than 5.00 (the equivalent of backing a goal at 1.25), and that's not a price I want to be involved in on this thread if I can possibly help it. Moving on to today, Juventus and Manchester City are in action in the Champions League and are both teams that I normally look at, but I'm leaving them alone for the time being. Juve don't look like they're quite firing yet under new manager Sarri who has introduced a new style of play, plus they're a bit light at the back right now. Likewise Manchester City are short of options in defence, and although it hasn't really affected their recent results it's enough of a reason for me to wait before backing them. In the tennis, Novak Djokovic returns at the ATP Tokyo Tournament after his retirement at the US Open, and it's that retirement which stops me from backing him to come through his first round match. It's impossible to know what sort of shape his shoulder is in without seeing him play, which is what I'll be doing when he takes on Popyrin. If it looks as though he's serving well and not in any discomfort then there's every chance I'll back him in later rounds, but for the time being it's a case of waiting until something comes up that looks like it's really worth taking - one of the hardest parts of doing something like this. Edited October 1, 2019 by Torque Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 2, 2019 Author Share Posted October 2, 2019 (edited) Djokovic looked good in a routine win against Popyrin and was comfortable on serve, suggesting that the shoulder injury which hampered him at the US Open has cleared up - or at least cleared up enough that it's not causing him big problems - and that's good enough for me to want to back him in his second round match against Soeda. The Japanese has home advantage in this one but prior to beating Struff in the first round here he'd never won a match in Tokyo, suggesting that home advantage isn't something that does him many favours. The win against Struff was certainly unexpected based on rankings, but as Struff is so reliant on serve and not all that great on return he's always vulnerable to defeat against lesser players if they have a good day. Against Djokovic, Soeda should find the going a lot tougher due to the Serb's excellent return game which should see him get plenty of chances to break. This is the kind of bet that's a classic example of what I spoke about at the start of this attempt - namely second-guessing a bet that almost everything suggests is as near to a sure thing as you're likely to get. Djokovic is the top seed, is ranked the best player in the world and should be motivated after an early exit at his last tournament and at a tournament that he has an excellent chance of winning, whilst Soeda has never beaten a top-10 player let alone a top-ranked player, he's in the autumn of his career and has spent most of the last few years playing below ATP level with his last win at this level before this tournament four years ago, and he doesn't really have anything in his game that can hurt Djokovic. Edited October 2, 2019 by Torque Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 2, 2019 Author Share Posted October 2, 2019 Bet 14. Djokovic to beat Soeda @ 1.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 2, 2019 Author Share Posted October 2, 2019 Djokovic won. Next stake £277.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 3, 2019 Author Share Posted October 3, 2019 Laying 0-0 in Arsenal's last Europa League match worked out, so I'm going to try the same thing again tonight. The Gunners are at home, where they haven't had a 0-0 for some time now, to Standard Liege of Belgium. They've put out a similar team to the one which played in the last Europa League round and they're facing a team that's in good form, so hopefully a goal will come at some stage - and the market certainly expects that there will be one - but not before I've got on at a better price than the 30's currently available. I'm asking for 18's and a goalless first 20 minutes or so should see it matched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 3, 2019 Author Share Posted October 3, 2019 (edited) The price came down quicker than I expected, and I was able to get fully matched before the first goal. I wasn't able to post before the first goal though, so I'll just add the winnings to the pot as I don't want to after-time. Edited October 3, 2019 by Torque Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 3, 2019 Author Share Posted October 3, 2019 Next stake £294 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 3, 2019 Author Share Posted October 3, 2019 Nothing tomorrow. I was looking at Djokovic but his price is a bit high, plus I didn't really like his performance in the last round against Soeda. I'm also wondering if he might be happy enough with the two wins he's got so far at this tournament in terms of preparation for the upcoming Shanghai Masters, where he's defending the title and the ranking points that go with it. From that perspective a loss to Pouille here might not be so bad, and that's before taking into account that Pouille is a good player with a decent ranking and certainly a big step up from Soeda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 4, 2019 Author Share Posted October 4, 2019 Fair to say I got it wrong about Djokovic, as he beat Pouille for the loss of just three games. Still, I didn't like it and I'm not putting anything up on here that I don't like - for better or worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 4, 2019 Author Share Posted October 4, 2019 I'm drawing a line through the unders in Burnley v Everton tomorrow - Burnley are scoring and conceding a few too many at the moment for my liking. Liverpool are a team I'm looking at, but they played in midweek whereas opponents Leicester didn't so that puts me off as I'd rather they were fresher against a team in good form. Also I'll be a lot happier backing them when Alisson is back in goal and they've tightened up a bit defensively. In Germany, Bayern Munich play Hoffenheim after their big win over Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League in the week and this could be the next bet. I'll wait for team news but I'd like to lay Hoffenheim as they're towards the bottom of the table and aren't scoring many goals, but the price is way too high. Assuming the team news doesn't throw up any surprises then I'll try to lay them in-play, and the ideal scenario for that would be if they were able to take the lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 Bayern have named what looks like their strongest team and it'll be a big surprise if they don't beat Hoffenheim pretty comfortably. The away side's lack of goals can be attributed in part to the absence of Kramaric, who continues to be absent and is not named in their team. As one of my rules in this attempt is not to back wins, I'll try to lay Hoffenheim in-play as the price to lay them ahead of kick-off is too high. Hopefully they score first and if they do then I'll lay them to win - as unlikely as that may seem they went 2-0 ahead in this fixture last year so it could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 0-0 at half-time, with Bayern in control but struggling to break through. Hoffenheim's price has come down, but still not to a level I'm happy with. I'm going to try to lay them at 20 and five or ten more minutes without a Bayern goal should see it matched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Over 0.5 goals @ 1.09? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 Bet 15. Lay Hoffenheim to beat Bayern Munich @ 20.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, JdsGooner90 said: Over 0.5 goals @ 1.09? No. Not part of my plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, Torque said: No. Not part of my plan. Wish it was now though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 You should still be fine but the over 0.5 goals was much better option at double the odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 I'm not convinced. I've seen matches like this so many times before - in fact there was one in the German 2nd Division just yesterday. Over 0.5 goals was never going to be an option for me - good price or not - because I want to fully cover home and draw outcomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Fair enough, good luck So this is a 1.05 hunt now not 1.10? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 As I said, not exclusively. For example, I've been looking at Djokovic all week in the tennis but every time he's played he's either been quite a bit above 1.10 or quite a bit below. I don't mind going below - to a point - but if I'm going to go above I want very good reasons to do so and I haven't been finding any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Unlucky, few strange results today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 (edited) At least I can't have any regrets because that was a ridiculous result that nobody could say they saw coming. The only thing that counted against Bayern was playing in the week, but after such a good result and with confidence high this was a game they should have won comfortably. That'll be the biggest odds away win in Germany all season and probably next season and the season after that. Edited October 5, 2019 by Torque Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 Back on the horse. I might not bother so much with the write-ups because results like Bayern v Hoffenheim just end up making you look silly. Bet 1. Djokovic to beat Millman @ 1.06 Boylesports Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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