Torque Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 (edited) I tried this a few years ago and didn't get very far and I thought I'd try again as a contrast to my more long-term betting the favourite thread. The idea is to turn £100 into £100,000 by winning about 70 bets in a row betting the entire bank each time at odds of around 1.10. Statistically it's practically impossible and there are lots of hurdles in the way besides winning so many bets in a row, but on paper at least each bet will have a 90 percent chance of winning so in that sense it should be much harder to pick a loser than a winner. No idea what the first bet will be yet so I'll come back with that later. All bets will be placed with either Smarkets or Betfair unless otherwise stated. *Current attempt begins on page 47* Edited Saturday at 07:06 PM by Torque Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 why not do 1/20 and win 50.000 lot easier lol good luck anyway Torque and Skittle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrImpossible Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Lol, how did you work that 90% chance of winning Just because the bookies make it 1.10 it doesn't mean it only happens 10% of the time, careful on your selections. Pascal and football betting are 2 things that shouldn't be mixed up, you may be able to do a good judgement on what you think is likely to happen based on your selection previous scores, but there isn't such a thing as probability in football, the bookies make you think there is. With that said, good luck in your 70 bets and remember each one of them is likely to win based on your good judgement, not on probabilities so treat each one of them as the very first one. KittenSprintClub and Torque 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 22, 2017 Author Share Posted March 22, 2017 1 hour ago, MrImpossible said: Lol, how did you work that 90% chance of winning Just because the bookies make it 1.10 it doesn't mean it only happens 10% of the time, careful on your selections. Pascal and football betting are 2 things that shouldn't be mixed up, you may be able to do a good judgement on what you think is likely to happen based on your selection previous scores, but there isn't such a thing as probability in football, the bookies make you think there is. With that said, good luck in your 70 bets and remember each one of them is likely to win based on your good judgement, not on probabilities so treat each one of them as the very first one. What I meant was that in general bookie odds are a good yardstick to go by, particularly at very short odds in my opinion. Obviously there are good 1.10 bets and bad 1.10 bets, so I'll be trying to find the good ones that arguably should be shorter than 1.10 and weed out the bad ones that probably should be higher than 1.10. That said though this isn't about finding value per se because what I need is winners - it's no good to me to find something at 1.10 that should be 1.05 that loses and that's where I'll need luck and lots of it to get anywhere near the target because even if something has 95 percent chance of happening that still leaves a 5 percent chance it wont. Completely agree with your last point by the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 24, 2017 Author Share Posted March 24, 2017 Bet number one will be Nadal to beat Sela at the ATP Masters in Miami. I'm taking the 1.07 available at Smarkets as this will give me the best return on the bet, even after commission is taken into account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 25, 2017 Author Share Posted March 25, 2017 Bet one in the bag. Next bet stake will be £106.86. LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 25, 2017 Author Share Posted March 25, 2017 Bet number two will be France to beat Luxembourg in World Cup 2018 Qualifying. I want 1.06 which was available but I just missed it. If I can't get it before the match starts I'll request 1.07 in-play at Smarkets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 25, 2017 Author Share Posted March 25, 2017 On at 1.06 with Unibet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 25, 2017 Author Share Posted March 25, 2017 Bet two comes in. Next stake is £113.27. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 25, 2017 Author Share Posted March 25, 2017 I can see me taking more bets at below 1.10 than above so I'll probably need nearer 100 winning bets in a row to pull this off. So 100 will be the new target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 (edited) No problem with taking the lesser prices, it gets things up and running and there may well be bets where you get better than 1.1 to balance things off. The obvious problem happens later down the line where you're looking for the larger bets to be placed. Edited March 26, 2017 by Skittle Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Bet three is England to beat Lithuania at 1.10 with Coral. They are also offering a free £5 bet in-play on this match so I'll use that as soon as I can to top up the bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Wasn't able to use the free 5 before the goal so the stake on the game remains at £113.27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Bet three a winner. Next stake is £124.60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Bet four will be Nadal to beat Kohlschreiber at the ATP Masters in Miami. I'm taking 1.18 at Smarkets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 Nadal obliges after a slow start. Next stake is £146.57. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 Bet five is Nadal to beat Mahut at the ATP Masters in Miami. The best price I can find is 1.10 at William Hill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 Nadal wins. Next stake will be £161.23. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Bet six will be Federer to beat Berdych at the ATP Masters in Miami. I'm on at 1.20 which is available at a number of books. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Federer won - just. That made for uncomfortable viewing. I said at the start I'd need lots of luck and that's the first big slice of it. Next stake will be £193.48. MrImpossible 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrImpossible Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Remember: Treat each bet as the first one. Good luck! froment 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Thanks. Appreciate the good wishes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 Bet seven will be Kerber to beat Schiavone at the WTA International Tournament in Monterrey. I've got 1.11 at Coral. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 Kerber won. Next stake is £214.98. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 Bet eight is Kerber to beat Minella at the WTA International Tournament in Monterrey. I've taken 1.13 at Smarkets. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 Kerber a comfortable winner. Next stake £242.35. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted April 11, 2017 Author Share Posted April 11, 2017 Bet 9 will be an in-play bet. Juventus currently lead Barcelona 2-0 in the Champions League. I'm backing them to win at 1.19 at Smarkets. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted April 11, 2017 Author Share Posted April 11, 2017 Juventus won. Next stake £287.48 Bronxie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronxie Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 So far so good! A lot of people would be happy to bank and start again. I'm on this train. Good luck Torque and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted April 12, 2017 Author Share Posted April 12, 2017 Bet number 10 is Atletico Madrid (+0.5) to beat Leicester City in the Champions League @ 1.09 with Smarkets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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