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With a new football season around the corner I'm going to have another try at this. I'm going to mainly focus on laying the away team in football and backing the big favourites in tennis. I want to see how long I can go without hitting a loser so I probably wont bet all that often - which is probably a good thing.

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The Premier League returns on Friday and ahead of that I've made some decisions about how I'm going to approach this latest attempt. One of the things that makes doing something like this so difficult is temptation. There are so many opportunities each day which can lead to betting impulsively without thinking clearly about whether a bet is really worth taking, and so the first thing I'll be doing this time is adopting a portfolio approach similar to those used in investing. I have a list of bet types and any bets I place will come from this list, which will mean there's no chance of taking something at the last minute that isn't properly researched and considered. It will also help to cut through the noise of all the possible bets that are out there and provide a clear focus.

Secondly, I'm going to keep things very simple by betting on obvious things. I've found there's a tendency to second-guess when looking to back football teams or tennis players that are on good runs, thinking that those runs have got to end at some point - which they have, but at the same time that has to be a better approach than backing a team or player in poor form because they're due a good result. In my experience, and it ties in with Gambler's Fallacy, good or bad form is more likely to persist than change and I'd rather lose backing good form than bad.

Thirdly, to succeed in this I need winners and it's the best football teams and tennis players that win the most and that are in the habit of winning (or not losing) and that's where I want my money to go. I'll be backing match line only in tennis, as ultimately what counts is to win the match, and I'll be laying in football so that I've got draw cover as one point is always better than none.

Finally, as I've done before I'll continue to post my thoughts on the bets I might take. Having to justify each and every bet I place should make it less likely that I get involved in something I end up regretting. With that said though, I'm going to need a lot of luck to do this as I've never got much further than a quarter of the way :hope

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Cheers @RomfordPele

So it's Liverpool v Norwich tonight in what looks like an obvious starter, but by now I know there's no such thing. Everyone has this down as an easy win for Liverpool and whilst it probably will be, there are enough reasons for me to leave it alone ahead of the start. In the first place, it's the first game of the season and so there's no form to go on outside of friendlies and the Community Shield which I don't think carries the same weight as a league fixture. Secondly, a number of Liverpool's most important players haven't had much rest since the end of last season due to playing international football and that arguably impacted on their friendly results which weren't great. Thirdly, Norwich are a bit of an unknown quantity in terms of how they'll approach playing in the Premier League. In the Championship, they played attacking football and it seemed as though they were happy enough to concede in matches as long as they scored more. They'll probably continue to play like that, and if they do then that plays right into Liverpool's hands and they could be on the end of a big defeat. If they're more measured though, and given that they still have the wave of confidence behind them generated by getting promoted, they could be more competitive and pose Liverpool more problems by making it hard for the Reds to break them down.

Taking all the above into account, if I do get involved it'll be during play and only if Liverpool name what I consider to be the spine of their team - that's Alisson in goal, Van Dijk in defence, Fabinho in midfield and Salah up front. I'll be looking to see if they start well and also if Norwich are looking to attack or defend to try to get a point or nick a win. If Liverpool start well and Norwich look like they haven't come to park the bus then I'll try to lay Norwich if the price isn't too high, and that includes if Norwich take the lead at any point in the first half.

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After tonight's false start, attentions turn to tomorrow's matches. One of the bet types on my list is unders in matches involving Burnley, as during the last few seasons they've been strong defensively without being prolific at the other end. That's a trend which should continue this season and so I'll be looking at their matches for possible bets, although as was the case tonight I'm not going to do anything ahead of the first fixture of the season for them. I'll find out what team Burnley are putting out tomorrow, and if it includes Pope in goal and Tarkowski and Mee at centre back then I'll consider a bet during play if it's looking like a tight game. It could be that Southampton play quite expansively this season which would put me off an unders bet, so I need to see how they're playing as well. They have plenty of pace in attack and also a new striker so a cautious approach is probably best.

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The teams are in and Pope, Tarkowski and Mee are there. That should be a very difficult triangle for Southampton to get past. For their part, the Saints look set up to attack. 2 wing-backs and 3 forward players means this could be an open game. Let's see how the first fifteen minutes or so pan out.

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Southampton with the wind at their backs are making the early running, although Burnley just scored only for it to be ruled out. I'll make a final decision about whether to bet on the unders at half-time.

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0-0 at half-time. Under 3.5 goals is too short to take and under 2.5 goals a little too long. It's looking like there'll be less than three goals in this one, so assuming it stays 0-0 I'm going to back the under 2.5 line when it gets closer to 10 to 1 on. If there's an early goal in the second half the under 3.5 line might go up and I'll take that instead.

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Yeah I'm not the biggest fan of betting on unders either. It's rare that I do these days but I still think there's mileage in backing unders in Burnley matches. I think the mistake I made was to bet on a line that was obviously a much higher price before kick-off, so in future I'll identify the line I want to bet on and then take it in-play if I get the chance - which I would have done when Burnley went 3-0 up.

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Let's call the Burnley game a practice - I'm not ready to throw the towel in without getting even one winner. What's also on my list is goals in Arsenal's matches. They're away tomorrow at Newcastle and I think it'll be an open game. Newcastle have a new manager and he'll want a positive result in his first match whilst Arsenal have so many options in the final third. I'm looking to lay 0-0 but right now the price is a little high and I'd like better. Hopefully it will be a cagey start and I can lay 0-0 at 11. That's the plan anyway and I'll post if I get on.

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