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£100 to £100,000 Glory Hunt (34% Complete)


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Next bet is in-play. PSV are homing in on the title in Holland and should be far too good for a Breda side languishing towards the relegation places in the Eredivisie. The home side are at full strength from what I can tell, whereas Breda are missing quite a few players through injury.

Bet 5. Back PSV to beat NAC Breda at 1.10

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I've been looking at Atletico Madrid v Deportivo and I think it's worth laying the away side. Atletico might have one eye on the Europa league after defeat against Villareal in their last game damaged their title hopes, but they really should be able to take care of a La Coruna side that are in the relegation places and haven't won all year. Not only that but they have a terrible record away at Atletico and the home side have made their new stadium something of a fortress this season. 

Bet 7. Lay Deportivo La Coruna to beat Atletico Madrid at 11.5

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I'm swerving Hibernian v Hamilton. Hamilton have already beaten Hibs away from home this season, plus they've beaten Rangers on the road too so they must have a chance tonight despite poor recent form.

Inverness v Brechin is more tempting, as they've only lost at home to the better sides in the division and Brechin remain winless in the league with relegation confirmed. On that basis, motivation must be on the low side whereas for Inverness a win here would see them at least maintain the gap between themselves and Dumbarton in 9th. Currently it's about 20 to lay Brechin and I want to lay lower so I'll ask for 15 in-play. Also, I'm now going to take out the £100 that I started with so that if I hit a loser I'll only lose the profits that I've built up so far. That means the next stake is £101.25

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Looking at both of the above matches, I have a slight preference for laying Roma rather than Dundee. Barcelona have named their strongest side which includes Messi who should be fresh after his appearance off the bench against Sevilla, which was the catalyst for an unlikely late comeback and the preservation of their unbeaten record in La Liga. Roma are also missing important players in Under and Naingolan, the former missing the draw away at Bologna in Serie A and the latter being withdrawn early on in that match. Having failed to beat Bologna it's hard to see how they will get a win in this one and so I'll be laying them in-play if I can, as I'd like a better price than is currently available. I've also changed my mind about taking out my initial stake - doing it now would in effect put me right back to the start of this and so I'll look to do it later if I get the opportunity.

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I'm laying Sporting Lisbon tonight. The side from Portugal have a poor record on the road of late and when combined with Atletico Madrid's home form and defensive strength, plus a rested Griezmann in attack it's going to be difficult for Sporting to get anything more than a draw.

Bet 9. Lay Sporting Lisbon to beat Atletico Madrid at 12.5

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Turns out there's some tennis to look at today. It's the Davis Cup and Spain take on Germany in the last eight and I'm interested in the second rubber which is scheduled to be between Rafael Nadal and Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Nadal is a heavy favourite even though he hasn't played since being forced to retire injured at the Australian Open at the start of the year, and by his own admission he isn't sure how fit he is. Normally that would be enough for me to pass on this and wait for something else, but I don't think he would have put himself forward for this tie if he was really struggling physically. If it turns out he's in decent shape he should beat Kohlschreiber, as he has done numerous times in the past. This will be played on clay and at home in Spain and Nadal has only lost one Davis Cup rubber which was the very first one he played nearly fifteen years ago. Taking everything into account I think the safest option is to back him to win with a bookmaker that voids bets if a player retires so that's what I'm going to do.

Bet 10. Back Nadal to beat Kohlschreiber at 1.10 William Hill

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Bet 11. Isner to beat De Loore at 1.10 William Hill

This is about to start but essentially I don't see how De Loore breaks Isner which means at worst each set will go to a tie-break. De Loore could win one tie-break, he might even win two but I don't think he's going to win three and that's without the possibility of Isner breaking him which he should be able to do after getting quite a few breaks against far better players than De Loore on his way to winning the Miami Masters.

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Leganes look a little light in defence and aren't exactly prolific going forward and Barcelona have included Messi from the off. It's a few ticks higher than I want to back at, but equally Leganes are too high to lay. Barcelona won't want to give any encouragement to Atletico Madrid by dropping points here, and against a side who are on a poor run of form away from home they really should be winning this.

Bet 12. Back Barcelona to beat Leganes at 1.13

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