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£100 to £100,000 Glory Hunt (34% Complete)


Torque

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Yeah I'm not the biggest fan of betting on unders either. It's rare that I do these days but I still think there's mileage in backing unders in Burnley matches. I think the mistake I made was to bet on a line that was obviously a much higher price before kick-off, so in future I'll identify the line I want to bet on and then take it in-play if I get the chance - which I would have done when Burnley went 3-0 up.

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Let's call the Burnley game a practice - I'm not ready to throw the towel in without getting even one winner. What's also on my list is goals in Arsenal's matches. They're away tomorrow at Newcastle and I think it'll be an open game. Newcastle have a new manager and he'll want a positive result in his first match whilst Arsenal have so many options in the final third. I'm looking to lay 0-0 but right now the price is a little high and I'd like better. Hopefully it will be a cagey start and I can lay 0-0 at 11. That's the plan anyway and I'll post if I get on.

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I'm also following Djokovic in the tennis and he plays tonight at the Cincinatti Masters. It's an easy pass though, as he's not played since Wimbledon and he's up against a player who's beaten him more than once in the past. One to watch with an eye on backing him later in the tournament.

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Djokovic came through easily enough against Querrey, although he was a bit sloppy to start with which is fair enough as he must have been rusty after not playing for about a month. Tonight he faces Carreno-Busta and it's a match he really should be winning, but as expected the price is skinny and I'd like a few ticks more and so the plan is to request 1.11 in-play. If Carreno-Busta can stay with him during the first few games I should get matched and that's probably the best I can hope for because with Nadal not playing and Federer just knocked out, Djokovic should see this as a great opportunity to win another Masters title (if he didn't already) and he'll want to get through this in straight sets if he possibly can.

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Djokovic goes again in a few hours against Pouille, and once again the price is a little shorter than I'd like. I'll request 1.11 in-play and hope that Pouille makes a good start so that it's matched, or even that he loses the first set but gets ahead in the second which should also see it matched. The Frenchman was soundly beaten by Djokovic at the Australian Open at the start of the year, but this should be closer. Djokovic hasn't been at his absolute best and Pouille is a streaky player with a few wins behind him, so he could be competitive in this one but should ultimately fall short.

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Next possible bet is for a goal between Arsenal and Burnley. Lay odds are much too big right now but if they come down to around 10 I'll look to get on. Arsenal are always good for a goal at home and their team is stronger than it was against Newcastle, plus Burnley aren't without a chance of scoring as their confidence will be high after their win against Southampton.

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Early goal for Arsenal means a change in strategy. I'm now looking at the under 5.5 goal line, which I'll back when it comes down a bit. That was the unders line I was looking at ahead of the start, and although Arsenal have an early goal I'd be surprised if this is a high-scoring game. Burnley have the same defence from last week and they'll try to keep things tight in the hope that they can get an equaliser at some point.

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I'm only looking at one thing tomorrow, which is goals between Liverpool and Arsenal. I want to lay 0-0, but the price is way too high. If it's 0-0 after half an hour or so I might be able to get on at around 15's, but if there's a goal before that I'll move on to the next possible punt.

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For tomorrow it's unders between Wolves and Burnley. I want Patricio, Boly, Bennett and Coady to be playing for Wolves and Pope, Tarkowski and Mee to be playing for Burnley. I'm looking at the 4.5 goal line but even then I might not get involved before the match starts as there could be goals in this. Wolves set up with wing-backs and as the home team they'll be looking to attack, so an early goal might mean I can play the 5.5 goal line. I'll check the teams then make a decision before kick-off.

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The thinking here is that Wolves should be a little leggy after their Europa League exertions, and as the home team they should set the tempo which might not be as fast as usual. On top of that, Burnley are likely to sit in rather than play expansively and so this should be a tight game. Let's see :hope

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Next bet I'm looking at is Djokovic against Carballes Baena at the US Open. Djokovic is far too short to back before the match starts, but there might be a chance to back him in-play. I'd like to back him at about 1.05 and there's two scenarios that might see that price become available - either Carballes Baena is able to stay with Djokovic deep into the first set due to playing well or a slow start from Djokovic or both, or he's able to take a set at some point in the match. What's most likely though is that Djokovic accelerates away almost from the start, and if that happens then it's a watching brief with a view to backing him in later rounds.

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