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Xtc12

Conflict Cup

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After watching the biggest and best Sporting Event of the year I was thinking about the arguments being made about handicapping Irish horses in English races and vice-versa. When English people pick up their paper in the morning do they look at the Irish racecards. Probably yes when Punchestown and Curragh are on what about the likes of Sligo and Laytown. As my Short Price Favs thread is over I am going to begin my Conflict Cup thread.

I am going to pick a horse from England and Ireland everyday. My naps of the day both sides and I will see who wins the Conflict Cup. Don't know should it be on Strike Rate or ROI (welcome to listen to opinions) but will hope to make a profit on both sides. Will keep it at flat stakes (but will keep my staking strategy for Short Price Fav) and all bets will be over Evs at time of post.

Remastered 16.30 Limerick 1 Pt Win @ 15/8  (bog) - enhanced price available

Promising sort. 3/1, second of 11 in bumper at Punchestown (16.5f, heavy) on NH debut 24 days ago. Should progress.

Clic Work 14.05 Kempton 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog) - enhanced price available

Has improved as expected for switch to fences (tall, useful-looking gelding), making it 2 from 2 in good style at Taunton in January. Subsequent 5 lb rise could underestimate him. Player.

 

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8 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Remastered 16.30 Limerick 1 Pt Win @ 15/8  (bog) - enhanced price available

Promising sort. 3/1, second of 11 in bumper at Punchestown (16.5f, heavy) on NH debut 24 days ago. Should progress

6th - Prominent and disputed lead, pushed along early straight and no impression in 5th over 1f out, no extra

8 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Clic Work 14.05 Kempton 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog) - enhanced price available

Has improved as expected for switch to fences (tall, useful-looking gelding), making it 2 from 2 in good style at Taunton in January. Subsequent 5 lb rise could underestimate him. Player.

3rd - Prominent, keen early, mistake 6th, lost place after 3 out, left in 3rd next, soon no impression

Not a good start after Day 1 0-0

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3 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Act Four 14.00 Ffos Las 1 pt win @ 6/5 (bog) - enhanced price available 

6th - Held up, under pressure 4 out, soon beaten

3 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

A Toi Phil 15.45 Navan1 pt Win @ 5/4 (bog)

1st @ 5\4 - Tracked leaders in 3rd, 2nd before 5 out, improved to dispute after 3 out, asserted before last, pushed out and kept on strongly run-in, easily

GB 0 Ire 1

Edited by Xtc12
change summary for A Toi Phil

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Nothing in Ireland tomorrow so for GB

Double Spin 15.30 Kempton 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog) - enhanced price available

Promising sort. Fourth of 6 behind a couple of useful sorts in minor event (3/1) over this C&D on debut last June. Open to improvement and likely hard to beat.

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Nothing in Ireland tomorrow so for GB

Double Spin 15.30 Kempton 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog) - enhanced price available

Promising sort. Fourth of 6 behind a couple of useful sorts in minor event (3/1) over this C&D on debut last June. Open to improvement and likely hard to beat.

6th - Raced wide prominent, ridden over 2f out, outpaced 2f out, kept on inside final furlong

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Whosyourhousemate 15.15 Southwell 1 Pt Win @ 11\10 (bog) - enhanced price available

Promising type. 50/1, third of 10 in maiden at Lingfield (8f, AW) on debut 66 days ago, never nearer. Should improve.

The Paparrazi Kid 16.05 Clonmel 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Useful chaser. 1 win from 2 runs this season. 8/1, career best when winning 12-runner handicap chase at Wexford (20f, soft) 4 days ago. Yard having good spell. Another bold show likely.

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21 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Whosyourhousemate 15.15 Southwell 1 Pt Win @ 11\10 (bog) - enhanced price available

Promising type. 50/1, third of 10 in maiden at Lingfield (8f, AW) on debut 66 days ago, never nearer. Should improve.

1st @ 11\10 - Tracked leaders, pushed along 3f out, looked in trouble 2f out, switched right over 1f out, ridden to chase clear leader approaching final furlong, stayed on to lead post

21 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

The Paparrazi Kid 16.05 Clonmel 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Useful chaser. 1 win from 2 runs this season. 8/1, career best when winning 12-runner handicap chase at Wexford (20f, soft) 4 days ago. Yard having good spell. Another bold show likely.

PU - Ruby out for another stroll. Raced in 3rd early, soon in rear, moderate 4th at 10th, under pressure from 3 out, soon no impression and moderate 3rd straight, pulled up before last

GB 1 Ire 1

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On 3/21/2017, 10:29:08, Xtc12 said:

Codeshare 14.30 Newcastle 1 Pt Win @ 6\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Promising type. Career best when winning 11-runner handicap at this C&D (9/4) 20 days ago, driven out. Has good chance on form

3rd - Tracked leaders, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and hung right over 1f out, kept on one pace

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Westerner Point 17.35 Cork 1 Pt Win @ 13\8 (bog) - enhanced price available

Seven wins from 20 NH runs. 2/1, career best when winning 5-runner minor event chase at Thurles (18f, heavy) 28 days ago, keeping on gamely. Switches from chase to hurdles. Significantly up in trip.

Warthog 17.25 Chepstow 1 Pt Win @ Evs (bog) - enhanced price available

€55,000 3-y-o, second foal: half-brother to French hurdler Sherman (17f winner), dam (h142) 17f-19f winner in France. Off mark in Irish maiden points at second attempt (Dec 18).

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Westerner Point 17.35 Cork 1 Pt Win @ 13\8 (bog) - enhanced price available

Seven wins from 20 NH runs. 2/1, career best when winning 5-runner minor event chase at Thurles (18f, heavy) 28 days ago, keeping on gamely. Switches from chase to hurdles. Significantly up in trip.

1st @ 13\8 - Settled behind leaders, 6th halfway, progress to challenge entering straight, led before 3 out where slight mistake, ridden before last, kept on well run-in

23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Warthog 17.25 Chepstow 1 Pt Win @ Evs (bog) - enhanced price available

€55,000 3-y-o, second foal: half-brother to French hurdler Sherman (17f winner), dam (h142) 17f-19f winner in France. Off mark in Irish maiden points at second attempt (Dec 18).

2nd - Led 3f, remained prominent, every chance from 2f out, kept on well

GB 1 Ire 2

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Gordon Lord Byron 19.30 Dundalk 1 Pt Win @ 11\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Useful gelding. 3-time C&D winner. 20/1, ninth of 14 in handicap at Meydan (6f, good) 57 days ago.

Ulysses 16.35 Lingfield 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog) - enhanced price available

Promising sort. Second of 4 in maiden (6/1) at this C&D (AW) on debut 21 days ago, nearest finish. Obvious claims.

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On 3/23/2017, 11:32:00, Xtc12 said:

Gordon Lord Byron 19.30 Dundalk 1 Pt Win @ 11\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Useful gelding. 3-time C&D winner. 20/1, ninth of 14 in handicap at Meydan (6f, good) 57 days ago.

2nd - Tracked leaders, 3rd halfway, ridden and dropped to 6th over 1f out, under pressure and kept on well inside final furlong

On 3/23/2017, 11:32:00, Xtc12 said:

Ulysses 16.35 Lingfield 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog) - enhanced price available

Promising sort. Second of 4 in maiden (6/1) at this C&D (AW) on debut 21 days ago, nearest finish. Obvious claims.

2nd - ver looked happy and ran in snatches, soon tracked winner, ridden and slightly outpaced and lost 2nd 2f out, rallied to chase clear winner again inside final furlong

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Beatiarius 14.15 Bangor 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Newcastle bumper winner (for Keith Reveley a year ago) who shaped with plenty of encouragement behind the talented Sam Spinner at same course on hurdling and should go one better 5 months on.

Dasmyhoss 17.40 Thurles 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Once-raced maiden. 5/1, third of 9 in bumper at Leopardstown (16f, good) on NH debut 55 days ago.

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On 3/25/2017, 8:03:41, Xtc12 said:

Beatiarius 14.15 Bangor 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Newcastle bumper winner (for Keith Reveley a year ago) who shaped with plenty of encouragement behind the talented Sam Spinner at same course on hurdling and should go one better 5 months on.

UR - Chased leaders, took keen hold, under pressure in 3rd when blundered and unseated rider 2 out

On 3/25/2017, 8:03:41, Xtc12 said:

Dasmyhoss 17.40 Thurles 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Once-raced maiden. 5/1, third of 9 in bumper at Leopardstown (16f, good) on NH debut 55 days ago.

7th - Tracked leader, 2nd halfway, ridden early straight, under pressure and no impression in 4th 1f out, no extra, eased close home

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Cafe Au Lait 16.30 Hereford 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 (bog) - enhanced price available

Well backed when ending a losing run at Wetherby last month and has run just as well in defeat both starts since. This another ordinary handicap and he will continue to give a good account. 

Somehow 16.10 Naas 1  Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog) - enhanced price available

Smart filly. Career best when winning 9-runner Dance Design Stakes (5/2) at the Curragh (9f, good to soft) by 7 lengths from Epsom Icon, slowly away. Off 7 months. Has good chance on form.

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12 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Cafe Au Lait 16.30 Hereford 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 (bog) - enhanced price available

Well backed when ending a losing run at Wetherby last month and has run just as well in defeat both starts since. This another ordinary handicap and he will continue to give a good account. 

7th - Held up in rear, driven to chase clear leaders 3 out, soon ridden, never a threat, weakened before last

12 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Somehow 16.10 Naas 1  Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog) - enhanced price available

Smart filly. Career best when winning 9-runner Dance Design Stakes (5/2) at the Curragh (9f, good to soft) by 7 lengths from Epsom Icon, slowly away. Off 7 months. Has good chance on form.

2nd - Settled behind leaders, 6th halfway, progress and closer 2f out, ridden to challenge 1 1/2f out, narrow lead over 1f out, headed inside final 100 yards, no extra in 2nd close home

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He's A Bully 14.30 Plumpton 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Posted a fine effort when runner-up at Ludlow (23.8f) last month, especially considering it was his first run since November 2015. Up just 1 lb, he should prove hard to beat.

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

He's A Bully 14.30 Plumpton 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog) - enhanced price available

Posted a fine effort when runner-up at Ludlow (23.8f) last month, especially considering it was his first run since November 2015. Up just 1 lb, he should prove hard to beat.

Non Runner

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Teescomponents Lad 16.30 Hexham 1 Pt Win @ 13\8 (bog) - enhanced price available

Showed much improved form when runner-up at Catterick last month and sets a solid standard on that form. Looks the one to beat. 

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On 3/27/2017, 10:52:01, Xtc12 said:

Teescomponents Lad 16.30 Hexham 1 Pt Win @ 13\8 (bog) - enhanced price available

Showed much improved form when runner-up at Catterick last month and sets a solid standard on that form. Looks the one to beat. 

2nd - In rear, headway over 4f out, chased winner over 1f out, no impression

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Whitsundays 16.10 Sedgefield 1 Pt Win @ 11\10 (bog) - enhanced price available

Point winner who landed a course maiden hurdle in December 2015. Got back on track over further here 2 weeks ago and will be in the mix again if backing that up. 

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    • As much as I think Ostapenko is normally a class above Brady, today could be more challenging. Ostapenko's serving will be under much scrutiny against a big hitter and the challenging wind conditions in Dubai. Brady has 2 matches under her belt this year in Dubai conditions, both straight sets. Ostapenko's record in Dubai is 2 times losing her first match of the tournament (Wang, Vesnina) and 1 time losing in second qualifying round (Mattek-Sands)  
    • Cuevas Disappointing in Buenos Aires be careful with that one four leaf
    • arkyn 1.45 lingfield thanking you
    • Carlisle 3.00 Pookie Pekan (11/2 b365)
    • really? atp 60 nothing special. incredible tennis player imo and great fighter as well. not to mention the 1,8m eur he put together thru his short career.... tru that I would lay off this match, or maybe lean dzumhur as well....  GL
    • Newcastle  7.00  Equitation  3/1  bet365
    • 5.00 Newcastle Splash of Verve 15/2 bet365
    • An interesting Hunter Chase this afternoon at Lingfield and the Full Trottle fully deserves his place at the head of the market. If you read my Hereford preview then you will know I am a big fan of this horse. He is so consistent and is a good solid horse and is one of my favourite horses running in Hunter Chases at the moment. He only won once last year when showing the benefit of a wind op at Ludlow, but his 2nds to Shotavodka at Hereford and Mr Mercurial at Cheltenham were top performances as well. I think he does have the best form in the race, but I'm not so sure that he is as far clear as the odds suggest. He was punted early on last night and has drifted out slightly to 10/11 this morning, but I still think that is on the short side. There is every chance this is going to be a strongly run race in what is likely to be holding ground and that could just see his fitness levels tested. He might well win and I am loathed to take him on, but I just don't see any value in his current price. Excitable Island is the horse who was given the 4 miler on Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night after Battle Dust lost his saddle cloth. He then did well to finish 4th at Stratford in the John Corbet Cup given he wasn't travelling from a fair way out. The problem is this race is over 2m4f and it isn't hard to think that connections have been forced to run here as I think this trip will be too sharp for him. Net D'Ecosse was stuffed at Warwick behind Hazel Hill, but it is interesting he has been given a wind op since then so clearly connections thought there was a breathing issue. He retains the tongue-tie as well just to make sure. His last win came back in May at Kilbeggan over this trip in soft ground off a mark of 128. That form is obviously good enough to see him run a big race here, but there are two things that concern me. First of all his former trainer Noel Meade didn't think he wanted soft ground so this holding ground today might not suit. Also his form since coming over isn't the strongest. Now he was 2nd to Road To Rome's stablemate Irish Anthem at Clifton in December and his trainer is off the belief that Irish Anthem is better than Road To Rome, so if you take that at face value then it probably wasn't a bad run, but I am not so sure myself. Maybe the drop back to this trip will help, but if there is still a wind issue concern this race will test that. Newsworthy is the other one in single figures. As I wrote in my review of the Taunton race I thought he ran better than his distance behind the winner suggests. Obviously we now know that he had no chance of beating Road To Rome, but I thought he traveled really in the race despite his jumping not being the best after he made a mistake early on which seemed to knock his confidence. Trip and ground look ideal and he clearly didn't stay 3m6f back in a point at Cocklebarrow, but he also made mistakes that day so that concern remains here. I do though think he still has a chance because if I am right about his running at Taunton then he would have a fair chance of hitting the frame here. The only other one I think is worth talking about is the horse I am going to make the main bet in the race, Bally River Boy. Those who read my Ffos Las preview will know I had a small bet on him ahead of that race which of course didn't happen because of EI. Granted he pulled up at Warwick, but he couldn't make the running that day and I think he sulked. He should have a much better chance of making the running in this lesser race. He did well to win at Fontwell last season and he ran pretty well in the John Corbet Cup despite pulling up because he didn't stay that night. His reappearance run saw him win by 20L at Ffos Las. Now that wasn't the strongest race in the world, but that was still an impressive performance to win in testing ground. I don't think he will have any issues with the drop in trip here and I hope that he might be able to put the others under pressure with his front running tactics and we know he will just keep going as well. The final plus is that James King is back in the saddle after he rode him in that Ffos Las race.  I think Full Trottle is the best horse in the race, but he could be vulnerable this afternoon especially at the price, and Bally River Boy is likely to make this a test in the ground and I think he has a good chance of being capable of making all. I certainly don't think he should be a double figure price. I am also going to have a small saver on Newsworthy because I thought the Taunton run was better than it looks on paper and hopefully he can jump better than he has done on both his starts this season. Bally River Boy 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway Newsworthy 0.5pts e/w @ 6/1 with Betway
    • Xpo Universal 4.40 Carlisle 14/1 Paddy Power - EW
    • 1400  carlisle 1pt win vi's s vis 2/1pp
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