four-leaf Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Victor Troicki to beat Milos Raonic at 5.00 with bet365 /Victor Troicki to beat (+4.5) Milos Raonic at 1.88 with Unibet Can't trust Milos right now. He's been out since winning the Delray beach semifinal and facing a player like Victor is hard when you've been out and want to get back at once. It's worth taking a chance with Victor with a small stake at this price. Unibet has 4.70, Paddypower 4.50 so at 5.0 it's worth it and Unibet is highest at 1.88 on +4.5 games for Victor. Once Victor has beaten Milos and that was in Beijing 2015 with a 6-4 6-4 scoreline and he's lost two times by 3-0 in Aussie open 2016 and Canada masters 2012. When Milos lost in Beijing 2015 to Victor he had just won the St. Petersburg open and was tired and jetlagged and now he's uncertain after his walkover in Delray beach. Victor is having a bad time and needs a good result here so I'll take my chances with Victor. CzechPunter and janekda 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Gonna try a Miami six-fold on bet365... Lucas Pouille -3.5 games at 2.0 Fabio Fognini to win at 1.72 Victor Troicki +4.5 games at 1.83 Andreas Seppi to win at 2.50 Yoshihito Nishioka +4.5 games at 1.72 Sam Stosur to win at 2.62 This one might not turn out to well so I will also try Andreas Seppi, Fabio Fognini and Lucas Pouille -3.5 in a treble. Wish me luck janekda and higuys 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 7 hours ago, CzechPunter said: Tommy is a better big match player and more talented than Sam and why his ranking has been better during his career is simply because of better results in big tournaments and Tommy is 4-0 on hardcourt v Sam in masters and grand slams. I'll take Tommy to beat Sam every day of the week at this price. Bet365 where I've taken Tommy to win also has 3.50. About Andrey Kuznetsov v Ivo Karlovic: I did back Ivo to win in straight sets v Andrey last summer on grass because of the surface and since Andrey prior to that match had no matches on grass since the season before. But now it's different circumstances so I think Andrey will win. CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simeon Borisof Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 I think we must agree that one of the most valuable bets for today is Rublev to beat Berdych.As i said a several days ago i don't think Berdych is top 10 player anymore.He is not trustworthy and can lose against anyone.His 1st serve is useless and he makes tons of unforced errors.Nishioka managed to beat him last time and i can't see any reason why Rublev can't do it today.Miami courts are on the slow side which will arguably suit none of them but while the Russian had already achieved an impressive win giving only 2 games away to Mayer,Berdych is yet to experience a match in Miami this year.I think he will sruggle big time and if Rublev take the 1st set he will win in 2.Bet365 are offering odds of 4.33 on him which is tremendous value.GL! CzechPunter, four-leaf and janekda 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 25, 2017 Author Share Posted March 25, 2017 higuys and ElPrincipito007 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 5 hours ago, CzechPunter said: Fabio is not 5-0 against Jeremy! I don't know where you got that from? He is 3-0 against Jeremy winning on clay twice and hardcourt once. All three times in 3 sets. As Miami offers a bit slower pace than other harcourts I would still back Fabio when time comes around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janekda Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, four-leaf said: Fabio is not 5-0 against Jeremy! I don't know where you got that from? He is 3-0 against Jeremy winning on clay twice and hardcourt once. All three times in 3 sets. As Miami offers a bit slower pace than other harcourts I would still back Fabio when time comes around. Estoril 2006, Amersfoort 2006 both on clay Fogna won Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomagio Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, janekda said: Estoril 2006, Amersfoort 2006 both on clay Fogna won Agree 5:0 CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Diego Schwartzman to beat David Ferrer at 2.25 with Bet365 Going against former top players like Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer nowadays provides us with good prices and from time to time some good profit. Diego hasn't had any of his better performances in IW as he choked big time against Joao Sousa in third set holding serve only once but he showed he could be something to watch out for in Miami after beating the struggling Karen Khachanov. He's about to face another struggling opponent now and he can win this one also. David being the favourite is mostly about his reputation but he isn't any good anymore. He hasn't beaten anyone inside top 50 this season except a struggling Bernard Tomic in Brisbane. Last season David lost in third round of Miami to Lucas Pouille after beating Taylor Fritz in straights but I don't think he'll beat Diego in straights and if it comes down to three sets it's really hard to see David coming out on top with his physics not being the greatest anymore. LePapo, CzechPunter and higuys 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janekda Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Today in Miami there are sooo many matches with good tricky match-ups. But I start with favorite. Fognini-Chardy 1.75 I really don't understand this odd. I like underdog but there are so many factors for Fognini. * Fognini is simply better player also last 12months * Fognini is higher ranking * 5:0 for Fognini * I understand Chardy defeated Cilic but Cilic isn't in-form. More valuable was Fabio's victory over R.Harrison in great form * Fognini is a little bit strange player and that's why I love him. He has something in mind he is able to overplay anybody. It only dependes on him. And if he has beaten Chardy 5x it means he is somehow motivated against him. Maybe a girl in history? Donaldson-Raonic 6.50 It is short to describe. I understand Raonic is high favourite but so high? * Raonic is huge favourite but he is a little bit glassy player with many injuries * Donaldson is on his high performance this year and Miami suits his play Vesely-Sock 3.85 * Vesely has play for top20 but his head is not so good. He was better player than Thiem during junior career. * Sock has one of the most horrible bh in top100. * even Vesely is tower he prefers slower courts(clay) and Miami is like clay court * Sock has good score in Miami but no valuable win and he has played especially with players behind top50 there * Vesely won 2 3sets close matches. It can help his mind. Be prepared to backup stakes on Vesely when he can just win service games. Kukuskhin-Bautista 3.7 * Kukuskhin is much better player than odds show and now he is in good form 8:2 last 10 games * Bautista has worse period than in the end of the last season * in IW he withdrew with muscle injury * in Miami RBA plays a little bit behind his average play Coric-Thiem 4.3 I think Thiems game is on hard court overrated and his form isn't so good as results show. On the other hand Coric is in bad form but he has qualities to overplay no confident player who playes on baseline I agree with stake on Rublev. higuys and CzechPunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 1 hour ago, janekda said: Estoril 2006, Amersfoort 2006 both on clay Fogna won Where did you read that? Atpworldtour.com head to head says 3-0 Fabio and nothing from 2006 and flashscore says the same. Fabio has only beaten Jeremy 3 times and I wouldn't read to mutch into some clay encounters from 2006 anyway. If we should take the head to head as far as we can I can say that Fabio Fognini hasn't lost to Jeremy Chardy even as a junior. They met 2004 on clay and Fabio emerged victorious in straight sets in the final of a french tournament. Junior record: Jeremy Chardy v Fabio Fognini 0-1 2004 Tournoi International Junior de Triangle D'Or FRA Clay FR FOGNINI 4-6 5-7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomagio Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Tennis insight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janekda Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 http://tennisinsight.com/match/202594313/2017-miami-masters-1000/r32/jeremy-chardy-vs-fabio-fognini/ They were matches in Q. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, tomagio said: Tennis insight How strange? Atpworldtour.com has no listed results from qualifiers in Amersfoort or Estoril 2006 between them but itftennis.com has but also ITF says it's officially 3-0 to Fabio and they don't count the results from 2006 or the junior result from 2004. CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 25, 2017 Author Share Posted March 25, 2017 Well, the bottom line is that Fognini has a good record against Chardy . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 You have to wonder how relevant matches from over ten years ago are anyway. I'm not even sure Cincinatti five years ago is particularly relevant. That just leaves two matches in the last 3 years - both on clay. However, as conditions at this tournament appear to be on the slow side that could be a good indicator for Fognini backers. Personally I'd say this match is about as unpredictable as it gets - two volatile players who are regularly up and down during matches and who have a history of checking out if the mood takes them. For that reason, if I was forced to back someone it would be Chardy purely because of the price as this could go either way. One thing I would say is for certain - this will be a match with lots of swings and changes in momentum and three sets looks highly likely to me. A score of something like 6-1, 1-6, 6-1 wouldn't surprise me at all and lets hope it's in favour of Fognini as a few are backing him. CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tit@n Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 aaaand of course, Berdych is playing like a god now. so predictable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidglass Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 46 minutes ago, tit@n said: aaaand of course, Berdych is playing like a god now. so predictable. Berdych is very far from anything that could be remotely described godlike. He is just simply a tennis bully like Tsonga, very adept at beating people they should normally beat even when they are badly out of form. They become gutless chickens when matched up against top 10 quality! Next thing people will get carried away and start backing this lame horse! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Ok so I'm going to practice what I preach. I have this down as a coin flip and so the 2.10 available at William Hill for a Chardy win against Fognini appeals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 No guts from Kuznetsov there, missed 3 set points and then fell apart completely. Criminal second set really. I'm not even sure what changed from last year, he was much more clutch back then. This year, he fumbled against Nishikori in the Australian Open (costing me a nice little winner at 8.00, I'll never forget that one) and he's been throwing matches away since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xxx1984xxx Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Hi Pro's! what do you think about Parmenrier? isn't it a gread value odd? Over 4. wow im sorry But in this tournament i did not see this two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 I think the odds are pretty much right, but I'd go with Parmentier if I had to select a bet there for the sake of it. four-leaf and higuys 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Juan Martin Del Potro to beat Roger Federer at 3.25 with Bet365 Not mutch to say about this. Roger hasn't reached the final of this event since 2006 and I don't think he will now either since JMDP can very mutch beat him tomorrow. Miami is Rogers worst masters tournament as someone mentioned before in the thread. Here's where it can all end. He wasn't all to convincing when beating Frances Tiafoe and he's already won IW so he's probably a bit tired and JMDP is the ideal opponent to stop Roger. CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomagio Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 My bet of the day is Delbonis - Struff - @2,08 I'm pretty surprised about these odds, i've expected max 1,7 on Delbonis. Struff is nothing special on hard, even these courts are the slowest. Struff won with tired Bedene and Simon which is out of form. Delbonis won with Busta which is way better than Struff and he was in really good form. Btw Struff played 26 tournaments on hard. He lost in 1st round in 20 tournamenst. On the other 6 tournaments he lost in 2nd round. This is propably bet of the month. higuys and CzechPunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, tomagio said: My bet of the day is Delbonis - Struff - @2,08 I'm pretty surprised about these odds, i've expected max 1,7 on Delbonis. Struff is nothing special on hard, even these courts are the slowest. Struff won with tired Bedene and Simon which is out of form. Delbonis won with Busta which is way better than Struff and he was in really good form. Btw Struff played 26 tournaments on hard. He lost in 1st round in 20 tournamenst. On the other 6 tournaments he lost in 2nd round. This is propably bet of the month. I think I'll pass on this match. It will be a lot of ups and downs in this match making it hard to predict. There's really no clear winner here and the odds are pretty mutch right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomagio Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 I had wrong info about Struff HC stats...he was in final Canberra and in SF Guadalajara. sorry for that, still my big bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 (edited) A little four-fold at bet365: Sam Stosur to beat (-1.5 sets) Shuai Peng at 4.33 Sam dominates the head to head 6-1 having only lost this season for the first time to Shuai in Tianjin. Every time Sam has beaten Shuai on slower surfaces it's been in straight sets. Last match against Ash Barty Sam faced 6 breakpoints and served well enough to save them all and win in straight sets so I think she's got quite a good chance to take this in straight sets also. Fabio Fognini to beat Jeremy Chardy at 1.80 Enough is said about this one. Borna Coric to beat (-1.5 sets) Adrian Mannarino at 2.25 Borna really should just dominate this matchup. Hard to give Adrian any chances at all. Julia Georges to beat (-1.5 sets) Risa Ozaki at 1.90 A bit uncertain about this one since Julia never has past the third round of Miami in 7 tries. Was in round three last season for the first time losing in straight sets to Simona Halep. But this one is a match she can win in straight sets. First time she gets a suitable opponent to give her a chance to get to round four where she probably will meet the current no.1. She's so far beaten Alison Riske in straight sets and Carla Suárez Navarro in straight sets. That's really good. Shows that she is playing well right now. They have one head to head between them and Julia won that one 6-4 6-3 on clay in Bad gastein 2015. Risa has improved her game since then and got in to top 100 for the first time this season but I still think this will be just a too tough matchup for her anyway. Total odds: 33.50 Edited March 26, 2017 by four-leaf CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Great call on Delbonis, @tomagio! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 4 hours ago, tomagio said: My bet of the day is Delbonis - Struff - @2,08 I'm pretty surprised about these odds, i've expected max 1,7 on Delbonis. Struff is nothing special on hard, even these courts are the slowest. Struff won with tired Bedene and Simon which is out of form. Delbonis won with Busta which is way better than Struff and he was in really good form. Btw Struff played 26 tournaments on hard. He lost in 1st round in 20 tournamenst. On the other 6 tournaments he lost in 2nd round. This is propably bet of the month. Good one! Congratulations! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janekda Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Mattek-Sands - Lucic 2.50 I believe in life's form of Bet. Lucic had great result with Radwanska but Radwanska is shadow of herself. And even she had an virus through week. I bet against Lucic even 1st round but Bondarenko lost 2 serves from 5:2 in decisive set. It's hard to analyze bet when she is especially double player. But when she is is on her zone and it looks she is, she can with many players. Yes, Lucic this year is great but I see worse form than in Australia and Miami is not her cup of tea. CzechPunter, four-leaf and higuys 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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